Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 011719
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1219 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours...with some
scattered cu across southeast OK and northwest AR. An isolated
storm is possible later this afternoon over the terrain areas
but coverage to slim to mention in TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Forecast looks on track and no update is planned at this time.
Temperatures running within a degree or two of yesterday`s values
at this same time so similar high temperatures are definitely
reasonable. A modest increase in cloud cover, especially in the
southeast and into west central Arkansas is expected later this
afternoon as the upper low in southeast Texas continues its slow
approach. A larger effect is likely to be felt tomorrow.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Other than transient high cloud...P6SM SKC through the entire
TAF forecast period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
An upper ridge will dominate the weather across eastern Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas at least through the Labor Day weekend. A
persistent weakness underneath the ridge may result in isolated
diurnal convection over the higher terrain areas of southeast
Oklahoma and western Arkansas the next few days but daily coverage
will likely remain below 10 percent. As a result will not mention
in the zones.

Persistence will rule for temperatures the next few days...with
perhaps a slight upward tick in temperatures as we head into the
weekend. The next chance of rain looks arrive just beyond the
range of this forecast as a weak frontal boundary approaches from
the north. This front looks less impressive with each passing day
so it appears possible that summer like temperatures will persist
at least well into next week.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days as they
are very near persistence.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  93  72  93 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   70  93  71  93 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   70  93  71  93 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   68  92  68  92 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   66  88  67  89 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   67  89  67  89 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   70  91  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   69  90  69  90 /   0   0   0   0
F10   69  91  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   70  94  71  95 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18



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