Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 232252
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
552 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Southerly winds will increase tomorrow as the pressure gradient
tightens in response to a developing storm system to the west. A
few sfc gusts between 25-30 kts can be expected at most sites by
early afternoon. Otherwise...VFR TAF elements will prevail through
the entire period.




&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
One last quiet day today and night tonight before the weather
pattern becomes considerably more active for the next several
days. Overnight lows should be a bit warmer than last night`s
since the surface ridge axis has pushed into the Mississippi
Valley region.

Gusty southerly winds will develop tomorrow as the pressure
gradient increases with the approach of a fairly fast moving upper
level trough. Thunderstorms should develop across portions of
Oklahoma and Kansas during the late afternoon and into the evening
as the wave passes, with the main forcing and therefore, bulk of
the activity expected to remain outside of the forecast area.
Areas near the Kansas and Missouri borders will be most likely to
see a thunderstorm tomorrow evening.

Low level moisture will really begin to increase during the day
Monday, continuing into Tuesday, leading to a corresponding jump
in the available instability. On Monday, thunderstorms may develop
during the afternoon and evening as the dryline pushes into parts
of central and eastern Oklahoma, but there is likely to remain a
fairly substantial cap in place, which will limit the convective
potential in the absence of significant upper level forcing. If
thunderstorms do develop Monday, they are likely to be severe
given available instability and shear parameters.

Then all eyes turn to Tuesday, which continues to look like the
best chance of significant severe weather through the next several
days. A stronger, negatively tilted upper level trough will move
into the southern and central Plains region during the day Tuesday
and into Tuesday night. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible
late Monday nigh and into Tuesday morning as a warm front moves
northward through Oklahoma and into Kansas in response to the
approach of the trough. Thunderstorms should develop in Oklahoma
along the dryline late afternoon and into the early evening,
which currently looks to be in the vicinity of Interstate 35, with
more widespread development likely through the evening hours as
it pushes east. CAPE values in the warm sector should be in
excess of 3,000-4,000 J/kg, and although, some capping will
continue to be present, increased upper level support should
correlate to a greater convective potential. The greatest chance
of significant severe weather should be across portions of eastern
Oklahoma, especially to the northwest of Tulsa, with a general
decrease in intensity expected as the thunderstorms near the
Oklahoma/Arkansas border by early morning Wednesday.

The system will be slow to clear the area, with severe weather
potential persisting across southeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas Wednesday afternoon. If thunderstorms do occur on
Wednesday, it should be an earlier show, with the greatest
potential shifting east of the forecast area by Wednesday evening.

After a brief respite Thursday, another upper level storm system
will approach the region toward next weekend, interacting with
stalled front and bringing another shot at widespread
thunderstorms.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23



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