Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 101140
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
640 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AFFECTING MOST OF THE
TAF SITES. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
STRONGER STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MCS OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS WAS ENTERING INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAD POSITIONED
ITSELF FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT. BOTH
THE SCATTERED CONVECTION AND THE MCS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AS THE MCS MOVES INTO THE CWA...AND ALSO A LIMITED SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE MCS INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT.
STRONG WINDS AND HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARDS. GREATER CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL BE WITH THE MCS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS AND SHIFT EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MCS
DECAYS AND THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AS A WARM FRONT.

ONGOING PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER WILL LOOK TO HINDER HIGH TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONT PUSHING THOUGH...A LATE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURE RALLY COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
THUS...HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LOOKS
POSSIBLE. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE REGION AND
SHIFT PRECIP CHANCES OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN TO THE REGION AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE DOMINATE FEATURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS UNDERNEATH THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TO RETURN ACROSS THE CWA. HIGH IN THE UPPER 90S/AROUND 100 DEGREES
LOOK LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.

LATE IN THE WEEKEND A CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE PLAINS. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO PUSH INTO THE CWA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. INDICATIONS
ARE THAT TEMPERATURES WITH THIS FRONT DO NOT LOOK TO BE AFFECT TOO
MUCH...THUS CONTINUING HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE START OF
THE NEXT WORK WEEK. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH
INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE CANADIAN LOW MOVES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED PRECIP CHANCES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. LATEST EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT HIGH
TEMPS AROUND THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK COULD BE IN THE
70S/80S...SO WE COULD HAVE THAT GOING FOR US...WHICH IS NICE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05




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