Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
FXUS64 KTSA 131049
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
549 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Surface high pressure will settle over the area this afternoon
with sunny skies/light and variable winds. Otherwise...VFR
conditions expected through the forecast period.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015/
Slightly elevated fire weather potential will again be the lone
weather issue the next couple of days, as well above normal
temperatures and low dew points ushered in by yesterday`s frontal
passage keep afternoon relative humidities very low. The main
change from the last couple of days is noticeably lower wind
speeds, which will serve to keep the overall threat of rapid fire
spread lower. This will change Thursday as southerly winds
increase once again in advance of a stronger cold front set to
move through the region Thursday night.
The front is expected to begin entering parts of northeast
Oklahoma early evening Thursday with lack of deep layer moisture
contributing to only a small chance of showers north of the I-44
corridor Thursday night. The limited moisture and therefore,
limited instability will keep the threat of lightning below
mentionable levels with any activity along the front.
Temperatures behind the front for Friday into the weekend will be
closer to seasonal normals, and except for strong post frontal
north winds on Friday, this should lead to a very pleasant
The overall weather pattern, which will remain fairly constant
into the weekend, will begin to transition to one more conducive
to southwesterly flow aloft early to middle next week. This will
bring more moisture into the region, perhaps finally bringing some
real rain to eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas just beyond
this forecast period.