Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
FXUS64 KTSA 250553
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1253 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to rotate around the upper
level low currently positioned over central OK. As the low moves
eastward storm motion will change from more of a south-to-north
movement to north-to-south. Surface winds should remain light and
variable as the low moves across, with winds picking up out of the
northwest after the low passes. Low and mid level cloud deck will
continue through much of the prevailing period.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 838 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/
Line of strong to severe storms has moved east of the forecast
area. To the west, shower development has occurred around the
upper low center, which is located over west central Oklahoma.
Short range models continue to show some isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development potential in response to the approaching
low, primarily across northeast Oklahoma and eventually into
northwest Arkansas. Some instability exists, per mesoanalysis,
ahead of the upper low across eastern Oklahoma, especially where
dew points remain in the mid and upper 50s, and as such, some hail
potential will exist with any development that does occur.
The main change to the going forecast has been to refine POPs
according to the current conditions, accounting for the decreasing
thunderstorm potential in Arkansas for the next several hours and
the subsequent increasing potential in eastern Oklahoma. Updates
PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 309 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/
Showers and thunderstorms have persisted across southeastern Oklahoma into
northwest Arkansas this afternoon. This activity has been elevated in nature
and is occurring in a area of favorable upper level divergence in advance
of an upper level low currently spinning over the Texas Panhandle. Rainfall
amounts are approaching 1 inch in a few locations across southeast Oklahoma.
This activity will shift to the east over the next several hours. There is still
the potential that some of these storms could become strong to severe as they move
into something of a more favorable airmass. These storms are expected to be east of
the Tulsa County Warning Area by mid-evening.
A few showers and thunderstorms have also begun to develop along the dryline across
western Osage and Pawnee counties. There is potential for this activity to continue
to develop along the dryline and move into northeast Oklahoma for the next several
hours as well. The airmass just ahead of the dryline is becoming increasingly unstable
with stronger heating taking place. There is also the potential that some of these
storms could become strong to severe with damaging winds to around 70 mph and golf ball size
hail the concern.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected overnight and into Saturday morning
as the upper level low moves out of the Texas Panhandle and across Oklahoma. The upper
level low will be over southwest Missouri by early Saturday morning. These storms will
be elevated in nature but will be capable of producing large hail.
Will continue the Red Flag Warning through 00z for areas of west of Highway 75 in
northeast Oklahoma as the dryline tries to move into that area.
The remainder of Saturday will be dry as ridging aloft builds over the region. The
next chance of Thunderstorms will Sunday into Monday morning as the next in a
series of upper level disturbances move across the area. There is expected to be
adequate shear and instability for some of these storms to become strong to severe
especially Sunday afternoon and evening.
After a benign period of weather most of Monday and Tuesday, the chances of showers
and thunderstorms ramp up Tuesday night into Wednesday as the next upper level
low moves out of the Southwest United States and across the Plains. Models suggest
that this system will be even more vigorous than the previous two. Shower and thunderstorm
chances will linger into Thursday before the system exits to the east.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 60 45 76 54 / 20 0 30 70
FSM 64 47 79 57 / 30 0 10 60
MLC 66 46 81 58 / 10 0 30 60
BVO 59 42 74 51 / 30 0 30 70
FYV 58 43 72 54 / 60 10 10 70
BYV 61 45 70 54 / 70 10 0 60
MKO 60 45 78 57 / 30 0 20 70
MIO 57 43 71 53 / 60 10 10 80
F10 62 46 79 56 / 10 0 30 60
HHW 70 48 80 59 / 0 0 20 50