Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 311050
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
550 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE
DAY...BEGINNING WITH THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TERMINALS AND SPREADING
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. FSM WILL
LIKELY SEE AT LEAST MVFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL THE
PERIOD. IF SKIES CAN CLEAR ENOUGH LATER TONIGHT...FOG COULD IMPACT
SOME OF THE TERMINALS /ESPECIALLY THE FAR NW AR ONES/ THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. WILL SHOW IFR VSBYS AT MLC/FYV/XNA TO GET THINGS
STARTED...WITH MVFR VSBYS ELSEWHERE. IF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS PERSIST
INTO THE OVERNIGHT...THE FOG SITUATION SHOULD NOT BE AS BAD AS IT
COULD BE GIVEN THE RAIN THE PAST 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING...WITH IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL RATES MEASURED
WITHIN AN AIRMASS CONSISTING OF 2+ INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES. THE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW ADVANCE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL CONTRIBUTING TO A CONTINUED
FLOODING RISK. OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP AXIS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. UNSEASONABLY COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TODAY.

PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND PERSISTENT SFC RIDGING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK WAVE LOOKS TO PASS OVERHEAD TOMORROW W/ LIGHT QPF SIGNALS
SHOWN IN VARIOUS DATA. HOWEVER THIS MAY ALSO BE NOTHING MORE THAN
HEAVY FOG TOMORROW MORNING WHICH IS POSSIBLE SHOULD CLOUD COVER
DIMINISH SUFFICIENTLY. EITHER WAY PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AND SFC
RIDGING WEAKENS ALLOWING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS TO RETURN
BRIEFLY...BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES AND LIKELY PUSH TEMPS
BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY FOR OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-
     OKZ076.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...22





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