Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 300433
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1133 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Convection will continue moving eastward across western AR sites
over the next few hours with low clouds and patchy fog then
spreading across the region. Flight conditions will be impacted by
ceilings through Saturday morning before VFR conditions return
later in the day.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 845 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Line of thunderstorms currently extends from near Coffeyville
to McAlester and then south to near Durant. This activity is
expected to clear much of eastern Oklahoma by 06z and the remainder
of the forecast area by 10z. Have been seeing wind gusts of 40
to 50 behind the storms across northeast Oklahoma as a wake low has
developed behind the squall line.  Still a threat for severe storms
across extreme southeast Oklahoma over the next couple of hours as
conditions remain favorable in the vicinity of the warm front near
the red river. These storms would be capable of producing large hail,
damaging winds and possibly a tornado.  Heavy rain is also possible
in a short period of time with the stronger storms. This could lead
to flash flooding. Have made some adjustments to the pops for tonight
to account for the latest timing of the line of thunderstorms.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ049-053-070>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Saturday for ARZ029.

$$


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   58  76  49  72 /  20  10  10  10
FSM   64  81  54  78 /  90  30  10  10
MLC   61  77  53  74 /  20  20   0   0
BVO   56  74  47  70 /  20  10  10  10
FYV   61  77  49  71 /  90  30  10  10
BYV   62  79  51  73 /  90  30  10  10
MKO   60  77  50  72 /  70  20  10  10
MIO   60  76  48  70 /  80  20  10  10
F10   59  76  51  71 /  20  10   0   0
HHW   64  81  55  79 /  80  30  10   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ049-053-070>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Saturday for ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...07


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