Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 271134
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
634 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Scattered showers this morning are expected to expand in coverage
along with thunderstorm chances through the day across Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. Will continue VCSH/VCTS through
the day as exact locations and timing are uncertain. Precip
chances should decrease this evening and will carry prob30 groups
for Southeast Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas. VFR conditions
should persist through the majority of the TAF period...however
IFR/MVFR conditions maybe possible within any convection and also
late tonight as cloud cover could possible scatter out.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 223 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Latest CAM models indicate we should see a day similar to
yesterday across the region. Moist and weakly capped environment
will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms, with coverage
dropping off quickly after sunset this evening. The mid level flow
will become more northwesterly on Thursday, due mostly in part to
a shortwave trough over the mid-Mississippi Valley. This should
shunt the deep layer moist axis to the south and east a
bit, and thus less coverage of storms area wide on Thursday
afternoon.

The strengthening NW flow aloft will also bring the potential for
MCS`s to roll off the High Plains and into our area during the
late night and early morning time period. The most favored time
window will be Thursday night into Friday, and Friday night into
Saturday. There is still some uncertainty on the track of the MCS
Thursday night into Friday. The ECMWF tracks the system into our
area, while the GFS suggests it will dive more south into W or
Central OK. Will stay in the middle ground for pops until this
becomes fairly clear. Rising mid level heights on Saturday will
put an end to this brief window for MCS activity.

The mid level ridge becomes established yet again over the heart
of the country next week. This will bring a return to hot and dry
weather, aside from some isolated afternoon storms in the terrain
of SE OK/W AR.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   93  74  93  73 /  50  20  20  50
FSM   95  74  93  74 /  50  30  40  30
MLC   94  73  93  73 /  50  30  30  20
BVO   92  70  93  69 /  30  20  20  50
FYV   90  70  89  68 /  50  30  40  30
BYV   89  71  89  69 /  50  30  40  30
MKO   93  73  93  72 /  50  30  30  40
MIO   92  72  92  71 /  30  20  30  30
F10   93  74  93  73 /  50  30  20  40
HHW   95  74  93  73 /  50  30  40  20

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20


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