Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 200821
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
321 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Very little has changed since yesterday regarding the upcoming
forecast. A frontal boundary will sag south into the area early
this morning, with convection likely to increase along this
boundary towards and just after sunrise. Organized severe weather
is not expected with the storms along the boundary today.

The main event begins to unfold this evening as isentropic lift
increases to the north of the front, which will be stalling out
near or a bit south of Interstate 40. Widespread showers and
thunderstorms will develop north of the boundary this evening and
continue into Friday. Elevated instability does support the rish
of hail with the stronger storms, but the main threat will be
heavy rainfall. Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches are
likely within the flash flood watch area, with local amounts over
5 inches likely. The front may try to lift slightly north during
the day Friday, but any northward progress will be hindered by
widespread precipitation to its north.

By late Friday, the front will begin to surge southeast, and
convection may attempt to fire on the advancing boundary. If
updrafts can become sustained on the warm side of the boundary, a
greater severe weather risk will ensue, but this appears rather
unlikely at this time.

A few wraparound showers may linger into Saturday across parts of
northest Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, and it will be a chilly,
raw day, with afternoon temperatures remaining in the 50s in most
places.

A quick warmup ensues Sunday and continues into early next week.
Considerable model differences exist by the middle to latter part
of next week, so will keep pops during this time frame on the low
side for now.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures today and tonight, with the
colder side of guidance preferred for areas north of the frontal
boundary Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  55  63  47 /  70 100 100  70
FSM   80  63  78  51 /  30  60  90  90
MLC   78  61  78  49 /  30  60  70  80
BVO   69  53  57  46 /  80 100 100  80
FYV   75  57  67  47 /  60  90 100  90
BYV   74  55  59  46 /  60  90 100 100
MKO   76  59  71  49 /  50  90 100  90
MIO   68  53  56  45 /  90 100 100  90
F10   75  59  68  48 /  50  90  90  80
HHW   79  63  80  51 /  20  20  30  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from late tonight through Friday evening for
     OKZ054>070.

AR...Flood Watch from late tonight through Friday evening for ARZ001-
     002-010-011.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....05

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