Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 271241 CCA

Area Forecast Discussion...Corrected Long Term
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
740 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

Issued at 435 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

A series of systems will impact the region starting late tonight.
Each one will bring increasing moisture and rain chances.
Isolated thunderstorms are also possible Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. It will remain mild through midweek. Highs
today will reach the upper 40s to lower 50s and into the upper
50s to lower 60s on Tuesday. Colder air will arrive by later
Wednesday into Thursday with chances for snow showers lingering
through the end of the week.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 435 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

Weak disturbance passing through with little more than some
increase clouds and locally gusty winds. Conditions should remain
dry with clearing skies/diminishing winds tonight. Highs will be
several more degrees warmer on Monday with highs in the middle 40s
to around 50. Clouds will increase in the SE with an area of light
rain passing just outside out area. Kept a mention of some
sprinkles at best in the far SE.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 435 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

More succinct frontal wave develops Tue with cohesive upper
support/leading edge of strengthening height falls and divergent
upper level exit region of 150 kt southwesterly upper level jet
translating eastward through southern plains to Ozarks. This wave to
ejects northeast along the frontal boundary later Tue and into nern
IL/nwrn IN by 06 UTC Wed. Timing still favors beyond 00 UTC and with
nominal surface dewpoint recovery anticipated/lower to middle 50s
for CWA. High deep layer bulk shear and slow dwindle of late
afternoon/evenings upstream 1000-2000 j/KG MLCAPE axis as EML
continues to surge into southern IL/IN. Have maintained lower chance
mention for thunderstorms at this time with favored
propagation/maintenance to our south. Slight chance relegated to
eastern third cwa for Wed am for any lingering/dying convection.
Otherwise midday fropa and isodrosothermal ridge axis well east of
cwa to keep convective redevelopment/upscale growth downstream of
CWA. Clipper still indicated in northwest flow aloft for Thu
followed by period of favorable lake effect with moderate thermal
instability/lake axis fetch Thu night into Fri. LES then quickly
diminishes Fri aft/eve as centroid of arctic high settles into
middle Ohio Valley northward ridging through CWA/Upper Great Lakes.
Once again heights quickly rebuild as moves into Canadian maritimes
with marked warmup into the weekend. Held mentionable pops at bay
through Dy7 with blo climo MOS and indications of two shortwaves
this weekend, the first relegated well north of CWA and the second
still well upstream by Sun.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 603 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

Return flow will continue today with a high pressure area to the
east and a developing low pressure area over the High Plains.
Moisture will also increase with the chance for showers and the
likelihood for lower ceilings as this system approaches tonight.
Expect MVFR ceilings at both TAF sites after 08-11Z.




LONG TERM...Murphy

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