430
FXUS65 KABQ 032326 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
526 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 325 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024

The heat will be the story this week with isolated to scattered
thunderstorms possible late in the week. The hottest temperatures of
the year are expected on Thursday, with much of the forecast area
seeing moderate to major heat risk. Temperatures will decrease
Friday but will remain well above average. Chances for afternoon
thunderstorms will increase Wednesday across the central
mountains, expanding in coverage to most of the area`s high
terrain on Thursday through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 325 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024

A rather quiet day is noted across the CWFA with a few afternoon
breezes and near/above normal temps. A fairly narrow band of high
clouds continue to drift across east central and south central NM,
and are expected to depart the southeast zones by late afternoon or
early evening. Satellite imagery is already showing cirrus invading
the Four Corners region once again as the next shortwave advances
through the Great Basin. This feature will propagate east-southeast
tonight and bring lowering cloud decks as the bulk of the moisture
remains north of the CO border. Meanwhile, a frontal boundary will
enter the far northeast plains late (or near daybreak), potentially
enhanced by convection in eastern CO. This boundary will move south
Tuesday into Tuesday night across the eastern plains.

The sensible weather for Tuesday will remain rather quiet as the
surface winds will be out of the northwest in western/central NM,
and more north-northeast in the plains behind the boundary. Some
gusty speeds are likely favored from the Four Corners area to the
central highlands, as typical in northwest flow patterns. Some of
the convective-allowing models suggest a few updrafts or sprinkles
along the boundary across northeast NM, but no appreciable QPF is
expected. High temps will remain above average for most areas, and
in fact, could approach Heat Advisory criteria at Roswell. The NBM
places the probability for a record near 20 percent. Expect higher
boundary layer moisture to claim a notable amount of real estate in
the ern plains as the feature migrates west-southwest Tuesday night.
The risk for significant canyon winds appears minimal at this time.
DPorter

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024

A stout ridge of high pressure takes shape over the Desert Southwest
on Wednesday as a low pressure system lingers off the coast of the
Baja California. The dance between these two features will dictate
the weather throughout the long term as they slowly meander
eastward. The weak boundary that dipped into the eastern plains on
Tuesday night will allow for modest cooling across the central and
southeast plains, while the rest of the area sees a few to several
degrees of warming. The upper level high pressure finds its
center Wednesday night, strengthening to 594 dam by Thursday
afternoon. This rise in pressure heights will turn up the heat
areawide rather effectively Thursday afternoon, bringing moderate
to major heat risk to portions of northern and central NM.
Departures still exist between guidance, leading to a decent
spread for high temperatures, and as such, did favor the middle
ground for Thursday`s forecast highs. Even with this, many locales
look to eye the century mark for the first time this year,
including ABQ. In addition, many locales flirt with or look to
break record temperatures and should the hotter solution dominate,
Heat Advisories may be needed in future updates.

An influx of modest moisture may bring isolated to scattered
thunderstorms into play Wednesday afternoon through the weekend.
Storms Wednesday afternoon will favor the central mts, expanding in
coverage to the northern and central high terrain and its adjacent
lowlands on Thursday and potentially persisting through the weekend.
The aforementioned modest moisture does little to bolster Tds and
given the strength of the upper high, did decide to trend PoPs down
areawide through the end of the week. The ridge will begin breaking
down on Saturday as the loitering low in the Baja begins trekking
eastward. This will allow a slight reprieve to the overbearing heat
on Saturday with a more widespread cooldown possible on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 415 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist with
increasing high cloudiness bringing VFR cigs to much of the area.
A brief window of low level wind shear is possible between 06-12Z
at KAEG and KABQ, but low forecast confidence and speeds at the
top of the layer would barely be hitting 30kts. Breezy/gusty
northwest winds are forecast most areas Tuesday, but a weak
backdoor front will bring north-northeast winds to KTCC.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 325 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Poor overnight recoveries are likely for most areas excluding the
northern high terrain for tonight. A weak disturbance will track
across the region, and this will favor gusty northwest winds from
the Four Corners to the central highlands (Clines Corners) in its
wake on Tuesday. No significant coverage of critical fire weather
conditions are expected. Meanwhile, there will be a backdoor front
sliding through the eastern plains Tuesday/Tuesday night, bringing
higher moisture and humidity in it wake.

Strong high pressure aloft will build over the Land of Enchantment
for the midweek period. This will keep the winds in check. Moisture
will increase beneath this ridge, and will allow for an increase in
shower/thunderstorm coverage starting Wednesday. Expect a mixture of
wet and dry cells across the central mountains, expanding to include
the Upper Gila region on Thursday. Gusty/erratic outflow winds will
be a concern, along with the potential for new ignitions due to the
rather poor wetting footprints. An upper level low parked in the ern
Pacific could migrate toward the Desert Southwest for the late week
period. This would favor additional moisture migrating into NM along
with higher pcpn chances, but given uncertainty in this situation, a
pattern for dry lightning remains a concern. DPorter

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  53  88  53  94 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  43  85  42  90 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  48  82  50  88 /   0   0   0   5
Gallup..........................  46  87  46  91 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  51  82  51  87 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  48  86  48  91 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  50  83  51  89 /   0   0   0   5
Magdalena.......................  58  87  60  90 /   0   0   0   5
Datil...........................  55  83  56  88 /   0   0   0   5
Reserve.........................  40  91  43  95 /   0   0   0   5
Glenwood........................  56  94  59  99 /   0   0   0   5
Chama...........................  43  78  43  84 /   0   0   0   5
Los Alamos......................  59  83  60  86 /   0   0   0  10
Pecos...........................  53  85  54  87 /   0   0   0  20
Cerro/Questa....................  45  77  47  83 /   0   5   0  10
Red River.......................  41  73  42  75 /   0   5   0  10
Angel Fire......................  34  77  38  80 /   0   5   0  10
Taos............................  45  84  47  88 /   0   0   0  10
Mora............................  48  82  49  83 /   0   5   0  20
Espanola........................  55  91  56  94 /   0   0   0  10
Santa Fe........................  56  85  58  88 /   0   0   0  10
Santa Fe Airport................  54  89  56  92 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  64  90  64  93 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  63  92  63  94 /   0   0   0   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  61  94  62  96 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  62  92  63  95 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  59  94  58  97 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  62  93  62  95 /   0   0   0   5
Bosque Farms....................  57  94  58  96 /   0   0   0   5
Corrales........................  58  94  60  96 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  57  94  58  96 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  63  89  62  91 /   0   0   0   5
Rio Rancho......................  62  92  63  94 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  63  97  64 100 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  57  83  58  86 /   0   0   0  10
Tijeras.........................  58  86  58  89 /   0   0   0  10
Edgewood........................  57  87  55  89 /   0   0   0   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  53  89  52  91 /   0   0   0   5
Clines Corners..................  53  84  54  86 /   0   0   0   5
Mountainair.....................  57  87  56  89 /   0   0   0  10
Gran Quivira....................  53  87  54  90 /   0   0   0  10
Carrizozo.......................  60  92  61  94 /   0   0   0  10
Ruidoso.........................  56  85  57  87 /   0   0   0  30
Capulin.........................  52  82  51  84 /   0   5   0   5
Raton...........................  51  87  51  90 /   0   5   0   5
Springer........................  52  88  53  90 /   0   5   0  10
Las Vegas.......................  53  86  53  85 /   0   5   0  10
Clayton.........................  59  88  58  91 /   0   5   0   0
Roy.............................  56  88  55  88 /   0   5   0   0
Conchas.........................  59  95  61  95 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  62  93  61  91 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  58  96  61  95 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  61  98  63  95 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  59 100  61  96 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  61  98  62  96 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  67 104  69 101 /   0   0   0   5
Picacho.........................  63  95  62  93 /   0   0   0  20
Elk.............................  58  93  59  91 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...46
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...11