338
FXUS65 KABQ 030847
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
247 AM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 246 AM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Heat intensifies this week with 90s and 100s becoming
commonplace for lower elevation areas including the Roswell and
Albuquerque metro areas. Heat intensity will peak Tuesday through
Friday. Chances for afternoon storms will begin to increase
Thursday, mainly along and east of the central mountain chain.
Isolated to scattered dry thunderstorms producing little to no rain
will be possible Thursday and Friday afternoons across central and
western NM. Any afternoon storms late this week will be slow-moving
and short-lived.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 246 AM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Extremely dry air over much of the region continues to prevent
humidity from recovering above 20% as of 230am. Meanwhile, a large
convective complex over western KS early this morning will force of
northerly wind shift into northeast NM thru sunrise. This boundary
is likely to surge southward all the way to Clovis before washing
out by the afternoon. Weak convergence along the remnant moisture
boundary along with afternoon heating may lead to some build ups
with perhaps a few sprinkles around Union County. Otherwise, hot and
dry conditions will prevail again today for most of the region with
slight westerly breezes.

A weak shortwave trough passing north of the area tonight will allow
winds aloft to veer out of the northwest thru Tuesday. Northwest
winds will become breezy in the afternoon from near Farmington to
ABQ and Clines Corners. Widespread high clouds will spread southeast
over NM as well Tuesday which may limit the potential max heating.
Temps will still be hot but cloud cover may shave off a degree or
two from the latest guidance numbers. The high temp of 104F at KROW
is just shy of a Heat Advisory so if less high cloud cover slides
overhead then it may be warranted. Another northerly wind shift
across northeast NM in the wake of the departing shortwave trough
may provide enough lift and moisture again for a few sprinkles by
late Tuesday afternoon within Union County.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 246 AM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024

The forecast remains on track for commonplace 90s and
100s Wednesday and Thursday to start the long term period. The
saving grace will be a frontal boundary backing through eastern
NM bringing an increase in low-level moisture, underlying a
building ridge of high pressure from the west. This will bring highs
down several degrees across eastern NM. However, the building
pressure heights and continued dry airmass will allow for warming
temperatures along and west of the Rio Grande Valley. An isolated
afternoon storm or two will be possible along the east slopes of the
central mountain chain. The ridge builds to 594dm squarely over NM
Thursday as the aforementioned low-level moisture remains across
eastern NM. Highs rise to the their hottest levels of the year so
far for many areas. As Roswell flirts with 105F again, the ABQ Metro
area will see a few 100s along the Rio Grande. Scattered storms will
be possible mainly along and east of the central mountain chain
thanks to low-level moisture lingering. Numerical models are also
depicting isolated to scattered high-based convection through west-
central NM. These storms would be mostly dry with little if any rain
reaching the ground, so dry lightning will be a main concern in this
area Thursday afternoon. Outflow from any storms that drift out over
the eastern plains will kick moisture back westward into the Rio
Grande by Friday morning. This will allow for an expansion of
afternoon thunderstorm coverage by Friday afternoon. The 594dm dome
of high pressure remains in place however, and any storm activity
will be pulsy and short-lived. Any storm activity along and west of
the Rio Grande Valley will again be mostly dry in nature.

The ridge begins to break down Saturday with low-level moisture
lingering around through central and eastern NM. Daytime highs
retreat as a result, and moreso Sunday as the ridge breaks down
further with an approaching upper low from the northern Baja
beginning to influence the weather pattern over NM.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

VFR expected at all terminals the next 24 hrs. West/southwest
winds will trend lighter on Monday with hot temperatures, very
low humidity, and increasing cirrus thru late afternoon. A few
rogue gusts near 30 kt are possible just about anywhere with
strong afternoon heating.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 246 AM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Winds will trend lighter today but it will remain exceptionally dry
over the region. Northwest winds will trend stronger Tuesday with an
area of marginally critical fire weather for a few hours from near
Farmington to ABQ and Clines Corners. A moist, surface boundary will
then enter eastern NM Tuesday night and Wednesday with some relief
to the single digit humidities for the plains. A strong upper level
ridge developing over western NM Wednesday will move into central NM
by Thursday then the Permian Basin by Friday. Increasing moisture
beneath the upper ridge may allow showers and storms to develop over
the high terrain each afternoon then move into nearby valleys and
highlands through the evening hours. The extent of wetting rainfall
will depend on how much moisture slides into the region, however any
lightning strikes will have potential to create new fire starts. It
will also be very hot and unstable through this period for much of
the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  89  53  89  54 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  83  45  84  41 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  83  49  83  51 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  84  43  87  47 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  79  50  81  51 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  85  44  86  48 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  83  50  83  52 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  86  58  87  60 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  83  54  84  56 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  87  39  90  46 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  90  56  93  59 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  78  44  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  83  61  83  59 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  85  53  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  78  46  78  51 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  71  43  72  44 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  76  34  77  40 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  84  47  84  48 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  81  49  81  50 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  90  59  90  56 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  83  59  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  88  57  90  57 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  90  64  90  63 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  91  63  92  62 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  92  62  93  59 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  91  62  92  63 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  93  59  94  55 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  91  63  92  61 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  92  59  93  54 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  92  58  93  61 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  92  58  93  56 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  89  64  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  90  63  91  62 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  98  63  97  65 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  82  59  84  57 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  87  57  88  58 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  85  59  87  55 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  87  50  89  51 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  82  54  84  54 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  85  57  87  55 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  85  53  87  55 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  90  61  92  62 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  84  56  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  83  55  81  52 /   0   0   5   0
Raton...........................  88  52  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  89  53  89  54 /   0   0   5   0
Las Vegas.......................  84  55  85  53 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  90  59  88  59 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  88  58  88  56 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  95  61  96  62 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  92  62  93  60 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  96  60  95  61 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  97  62  98  64 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  98  60  99  63 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  97  62  98  62 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell......................... 103  66 104  70 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  93  64  95  64 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  90  58  92  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...42