272
FXUS63 KABR 022347 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
647 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A slight risk of severe weather (level 2 on a scale of 5) will
  develop late this afternoon through the evening hours as a cold
  front sweeps across the area. All severe weather hazards are
  possible, including large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.

- There is a 30-80% chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday night
  through Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 633 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Aviation discussion updated below for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Showers continue to linger east of the Coteau this afternoon with
ample cloud cover trailing back as far west as the James Valley.
This will impede destabilization across the east as temperatures
struggle to rise. That said, KABR did jump 8 degrees in the last
hour to rise into the upper 70s, so any clearing at all will quickly
push up temps. The best parameters for severe convection fall in the
warm frontal zone extending off the sfc low and approximately
stretching along the Hwy 14 corridor. Bulk shear around 40 kts, sig
severe nearing 30 (80), and dewpoints in the mid 60s with CAPE up
around 3000 J/kg support the HRRR`s development between 22z and 23z
of cells in Lyman/Buffalo/southern Hand and Hyde.

There is less support the farther north you go apart from the
shortwaves and cold front later this evening. Shear falls to 30 kts
and CAPE to around 1500 J/kg with limited downdraft CAPE (700 to
800) as well. Still may see some stronger portions of a line develop
and march east into Minnesota after 0z.

Winds shift to the southeast on Monday ahead of the next approaching
low. Showers and thunderstorms move back in with this next low
Monday night, but storms are expected to remain sub-severe.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

An area of low pressure and associated frontal boundary will push
eastward across the forecast area on Tuesday, bringing a 30-70%
chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly east of the James
River. The front appears to push into MN during the mid afternoon
hours, with the severe threat east of this CWA.

Beyond Tuesday, the weather pattern will feature northwesterly flow
aloft with mostly dry conditions prevailing. The northerly flow
should produce favorable mixing winds with gusts of 25 to 40 mph
possible throughout most of the period. Wednesday and Thursday
should be the windiest days as the NBM has a 40-90% chance of seeing
gusts exceed 40 mph. The probability of seeing 40 mph wind gusts
drops below 45% Friday and Saturday.

Temperatures will favor near average Wednesday and Thursday, with a
cooling trend possible Friday and Saturday. The EC ensemble mean and
the GEFS suggest highs in the upper 60s, to the mid 70s Friday
through Saturday, while the GEPS is an outlier with highs in the 70s
and 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 633 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

TSRA/+TSRA will continue across the region through the evening
hours, with periods of MVFR/IFR CIGs/VSBY with any activity that
moves directly over a terminal. Also potential for hail and strong
winds over 40 knots.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...TMT