Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 052018
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
318 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE
HAS PRODUCED VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WITH MANY
LOCATION IN THE 80S. THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A DRY AIRMASS
IS RESULTING IN NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS AS RH VALUES FELL TO TEENS
FOR SOME AREA. WILL NOT ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE AT THIS TIME
AS WINDS AND ARE RH VALUES ARE MARGINAL.

FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN ON FRIDAY AS WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WHILE WINDS WILL BE
RATHER GUSTY FROM THE NORTH ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...RH
VALUES SHOULD IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY POST FRONTAL.

PCPN CHANCES ALONG THE FRONT ARE LOOKING LESS LIKELY DUE TO WARM 700
MB TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN A SCHC POP IN THE EASTERN
CWA FOR COLLOBORATION REASONS. THUNDERSTORM CHANGES LOOK BEST ALONG
I-90 AROUND 3Z SATURDAY. 700 MB TEMPS SHOULD COOL OFF ENOUGH FOR SCT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

COOLER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. WHILE DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF POPS ARE ADDED TO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA
WHERE THE SREF SUGGESTS SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO GET MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK AS TWO LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS AFFECT THE REGION. THE FIRST UPPER LOW MOVES OVER
THE REGION ON MONDAY AND EXITS ON TUESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BRING A
DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION AND
ACCEPTED SUPERBLEND GRIDS FOR THIS. LATER IN THE WEEK...WILL BE
WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER UPPER LOW TO SWING ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT THE TRACK OF THIS ONE IS IN QUESTION. THIS ONE PROGRESSES
THROUGH THE REGION SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS...SO LOOKING FOR
PROLONGED CHANCES FOR PRECIP TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MUCH OF NEXT WEEK COULD POTENTIALLY BE ON THE
COOL SIDE WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES. WILL KEEP
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
INCLUDED WIND SHEAR IN KPIR AND KATY TAFS OVERNIGHT AS WINDS JUST
OFF THE SFC INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT


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