Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KABR 262041
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
341 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE PRIMARILY AROUND THE
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
PERSISTS OVER THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT...AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS
ACROSS ERN MT SWD INTO WRN SD AND ERN WY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
HAS LED TO A PLUME OF INSTABILITY OVER WRN SD WITH A FEW STORMS NOW
POPPING IN OVER THE BLACK HILLS SWD INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE. THE HI-
RES MODELS DO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STORMS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING...AND LEFT A LOW POP
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.  LATER TONIGHT...A WEAK LLJ MAY DEVELOP OVER
SRN SD WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW ELEVATED STORMS.  FEEL THAT MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-90.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES
AND THEN ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER...WHILE A CORRESPONDING SUB-
1000MB SFC LOW PIVOTS EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. AHEAD OF A THE SYSTEM
A STRONG THERMAL RIDGE/ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL DEVELOP...WITH VERY
A VERY WARM AND MOIST PBL.  HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S COMBINED
WITH DEWPOINTS IN UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES NEAR
100F BY AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION...PLENTY OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY
WILL DEVELOP WITH MLCAPE VALUES RISING TO 2000+ J/KG.  THE LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE
SURPRESSED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS H7 TEMPS RISE FROM +11C TO +14C.
HOWEVER...A FEW MODELS STILL SUGGEST THAT AREAS IN FAR NORTHEASTERN
SD AND WRN MN COULD SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP ON THE FRINGE OF THE
CAP BY LATE AFTERNOON.  MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY EARLY EVENING AND THEN SURGE
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT ALONG THE POTENT FRONTAL
ZONE. THE LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM THE SPC NOW HAS MUCH OF THE AREA
IN AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE BASED
UPON THE FORECAST CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE. THE PRIMARY THREAT
WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS HAIL.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH.  AFTER SOME
LINGERING PRECIPITATION EARLY TUESDAY...EXPECT TUESDAY TO BE WINDY
AND MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.  IN
FACT...WINDS WILL LIKELY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST WITH SUSTAINED WEST WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE
WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. BREEZY AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

PRETTY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. COOL
AND DRY AIR WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING LONG WAVE
TROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
40S AND 50S WILL BE THE GENERAL TREND THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORKWEEK.
THE ECMWF SUGGESTS SOME MOISTURE RETURN AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND...THE GFS HOWEVER...NEVER REALLY DEVELOPS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
THAT WOULD BE NEEDED TO ADVECT MOISTURE NORTHWARD. NO REAL
SIGNIFICANT WAVES OF ENERGY IN THE LONG TERM EITHER...BUT DEPENDING
ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT...THERE MAY BE SOME WEAKER ENERGY SLIDING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT APPEAR TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE KPIR TAF SITE.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...BECOMING
GUSTY ON MONDAY. NO RESTRICTS TO CIGS OR VSBYS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOWLE
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...SERR


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.