Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 151709

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1209 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Issued at 1208 PM CDT SAT OCT 15 2016

No significant changes with the mid day update.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 331 AM CDT SAT OCT 15 2016

Cool front continues to make steady progress eastward across the CWA
and is knocking on KABR`s doorstep as of this writing. Not much in
the way of cold air behind this front, and in fact, temperatures
will remain above normal today with highs ranging from the upper 60s
to mid 70s. Expecting a very pleasant day across the region today
with just a little northwest breeze and mostly sunny skies.

Warmer and windier conditions return to the region on Sunday in
advance of another passing frontal boundary. Fire danger will become
a concern again, more so across central/south central SD where RH
values are forecast to bottom out around 20 percent or lower once
again. It appears there will be some fairly gusty southwest breezes
as well during the afternoon hours while humidity is bottoming out
around 20 percent. Have therefore issued a Fire Weather Watch for
fire weather zone 267 Sunday afternoon.

Cold front will move through the area Sunday evening, with cooler
air moving back in for Monday. But again, still very mild for this
time of year with temps remaining in the 60s and 70s. Will be
watching some weak shortwave energy moving across the Dakotas on
Monday, which may bring a few scattered light showers. Will leave
slight chances in the forecast for the time being.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Friday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT SAT OCT 15 2016

Again this morning the models are in fair agreement until late in
the period. Flat/fast flow will start to buckle toward the end of
the period. A strong H3 jet and potential jet streak will likely
bring some pcpn to the region Monday night. Can`t rule out thunder
given weak MLCAPEs over the eastern CWA.  The rest of the period
looks to be mostly dry as the mid level flow begins to buckle
as ridging develops over the western CONUS, and downstream troffing
sets up over the central/eastern CONUS.  This is where the models
start to diverge quite a bit with the ECMWF/CFS continuing to dig a
trof further east vs the GFS and its more cutoff looking upper
low back to the west. The CMC appears to be somewhere in between
those two solutions.  No matter which solution verifies, the
potential impacts across the ABR cwa appear minimal. Temperatures
look to average out above normal for most of the forecast time


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 619 AM CDT SAT OCT 15 2016

VFR conditions are expected across the region through today.


SD...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for SDZ267.



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