Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 171450 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
950 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.UPDATE...
AT THIS POINT...THERE REALLY IS LITTLE NEED FOR A MORNING UPDATE.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS LOW STRATUS AND ITS LIMITING AFFECT ON HIGH
TEMPS WELL HANDLED. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS...IN
CASE CLOUDS DECIDE TO BREAK UP FASTER AND/OR OVER A LARGER AREAL
EXTENT THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. BREEZY/WINDY NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING INTO THIS EVENING.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
STILL RATHER WINDY ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS
OVER 30 MPH IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS. STRATUS DECK HAS ALSO TAKEN OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO STAY UP A BIT HIGHER
THAN FORECAST SO HAVE BUMPED UP THIS MORNINGS LOWS A FEW DEGREES.
THE CLOUDS AND WIND WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH
WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP HIGHS RATHER COOL WITH READINGS
IN THE 50S.

THE MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST IS DETERMINING JUST HOW
LONG CLOUDS STICK AROUND INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WELL AS THE
AREAL COVERAGE. THIS WILL PLAY A HUGE ROLE IN HOW COLD TEMPS GET
TONIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH SETTLES IN...BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND
COLDER TEMPS. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT
AS IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CLOUD
COVER WILL STICK AROUND INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BUT JUST WHEN SKIES
ACTUALLY CLEAR OUT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT.

MODELS ARE SHOWING A NICE WARM UP AGAIN BY SUNDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS
RISE INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. IT APPEARS HIGHS WILL
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S WITH DRY CONDITIONS.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINANT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN GET PUSHED EASTWARD
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. WILL SEE SOME UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACK OVER THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
A SURFACE FRONT WILL REACH THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...MAY BRING RAIN SHOWERS
TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE CURRENTLY HINTING AT SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH THE
FRONT.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO. HIGHS IN THE 60S
WILL BE COMMON...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA TONIGHT. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE LOW CIGS
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT ACROSS THE WEST SOMETIME THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH OVER THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO
30 MPH WILL BE COMMON TODAY...DIMINISHING AND BECOMING LIGHT AFTER
SUNSET.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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