252
FXUS63 KICT 291732
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1232 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periodic rain chances possible from this afternoon through the
beginning of next week. Strong storms are possible, but widespread
severe weather is not expected

- The most widespread storm chances appear to be Thursday through
early Friday.

- Near to slightly below average temperatures through the rest of
  the week, then a gradual warming trend starts this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Synopsis... A rather complicated and low confidence forecast
will be the main headline through the beginning of next week. A
number of ripples embedded in mid/upper level flow in the midst
of cool mid-level temperatures (contributing to little to no
CIN) and a number of surface boundaries/areas of confluence will
present at least periodic low rain chances from this afternoon
through potentially the beginning of next week. While CAMs and
global models have been anything but consistent and in
agreement, it does appear that Thursday will be the best chance
for widespread rainfall. As much of the region continues to
battle drought conditions, should this play out as currently
forecast, it would be extremely beneficial. However, we`ve been
here before this year, and unfortunately, the lack of confidence
in the forecast doesn`t make this a guarantee.

Today... Water vapor satellite and upper level analysis show a
somewhat messy pattern this morning with a mid/upper wave diving
southeast across southern plains and weak upper ridging quickly
progressing eastward across the central plains. Looking towards the
western CONUS, the first of a number of upper shortwave troughs can
be seen over the Desert Southwest, and this feature will likely be
important to the development of widespread convection across
the High Plains this afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, across
eastern Kansas, essentially no inhibition will be in place
across the area thanks to cool mid-level temperatures. A number
of short term models suggest an area of weak surface
convergence will trigger at least some isolated storms along and
northeast of a McPherson-El Dorado-Coffeyville line this
afternoon and evening. The current forecast currently keeps PoPs
at or below 30% given that this apparent feature that will
supposedly be in place this afternoon really isn`t being
observed at this time, so it`s entirely possible we have no
storms in the forecast area this afternoon. Still, should some
storms develop, weak flow will generally keep storms from
achieving severe criteria; however, pea sized hail and gusty
winds cannot be ruled out with stronger storms. Model soundings
also shows a rather moist profile which will promote heavy and
efficient rainfall with any storm that may develop (again... IF
one develops). Very late tonight into early Thursday morning,
dying storms off of the high plains may enter portions of
central and south-central Kansas, but not much will make it past
the I-135 corridor given the lack of instability.

Thursday... There has been a bit more consistency in signaling that
Thursday has the best chances for widespread storm chances, but
there are a couple of wrinkles that could impact storm chances
across the area. Let`s break it down. A more evident and sharp upper
wave will creep across the region which will likely help to fire
storms off of the High Plains early in the afternoon, and storms
will have ample instability to work with in order to sustain
themselves through the late afternoon, evening, and nighttime hours
as they progress south and east. However, a couple of things may
occur that could throw a wrench in this outcome. The first is the
potential for early storm development in the forecast as a result of
a remnant MCV leftover from storms in the High Plains this evening.
This wouldn`t be detrimental to rain chances, but it would
potentially create an earlier start time for more widespread
activity. The other wrench in the forecast is the potential for a
more organized MCS to sweep across portions of southwest Kansas and
western Oklahoma early Thursday morning as convection across the
High Plains is sustained by a potent LLJ. This could potentially
hamper instability across the forecast area, and would lead to a
decrease in coverage of thunderstorms, and thus a decrease in number
of locations that receive meaningful rainfall. Unfortunately, we
really won`t have a clear picture about how Thursday plays until we
have a better idea of how storms moving off the High Plains behave
tonight.

Friday through the beginning of next week... Left over activity may
continue to fester across the area Friday morning, and additional
development may be possible in the afternoon as the aforementioned
shortwave continue to linger over the area (could classify is more
as a weak mid/upper low as opposed to a shortwave embedded in weak
flow). Storm chances should wane from west to east late Friday
afternoon into Friday evening. Thereafter, the forecast gets even
more fuzzy as global models are generally having a difficult time
remaining consistent. However, currently, low periodic rain chances
remain in the forecast from Saturday into the beginning of next
week. Although, widespread rainfall does not appear likely. One
aspect of the forecast that we can say with a bit more certainty is
that a warming trend is anticipated beginning this weekend.
Afternoon temperatures are expected to return to the mid to upper
80s, which is around average for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

A diurnally driven cumulus field has developed across portions
of central, south central and southeast KS. To this point, CIGS
have remained VFR and should do so for the remainder of the
period. It remains to be seen the coverage of any showers/storms
this afternoon. Due to this uncertainity, have left any mention
of shra or tsra out for now. The best chance for showers/storms
arrives towards sunrise Thursday at all sites except CNU. To
address this potential have introduced a PROB30 group.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...BMB