633
FXUS63 KFGF 260256
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
956 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect patchy frost along the Canadian border tonight as
  temperatures dip to around 35 degrees

- The active pattern continues with chances for showers and
  thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday and again Thursday to
  Saturday

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 956 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

A few showers and even a thunderstorm along the ND/SD border
have started to show up on radar. Not much reaching the ground,
but enough to include an isolated shower/t-storm mention for the
next few hours. Put Benson county in the frost advisory to match
up with western neighbor.

UPDATE
Issued at 645 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Showers continue to remain well south of our west central MN
counties, so lowered POPs further as don`t think we will see
much tonight. Decreasing clouds for the rest of the CWA as
cumulus dissipates after sunset.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

The stacked low over western Ontario will continue to lift
slowly northward tonight, eventually stalling along the Manitoba
and northwest Ontario border on Sunday. As another short wave
crosses the FA Sunday night into Monday, the 500mb low along the
Manitoba/northwest Ontario border will drop southeast behind
it, reaching the Minnesota arrowhead late Monday night. 500mb
ridging then builds in behind this, resulting in more normal
highs for Wednesday and beyond (normal highs are around 70 now).

The surface pressure pattern is very weak tonight, so expect
winds to become light quickly by dark. Any lingering daytime
clouds will thin out about the same time as well, setting up
another chilly night. Went ahead and issued a Frost Advisory
mainly for areas along the Canadian border, where the
temperature should dip to around 35 degrees. It is still early
in the season, but if people have sensitive plants, they should
cover them if possible to protect them from the cold.

The first wave will track through the FA mainly Sunday night
into Monday. Showers and some embedded thunder will track from
west to east across the FA during this period. With the absence
of much instability/thunder, precipitation amounts should
mainly be 0.10 to 0.20 inches, with some spots of 0.25 to 0.50
inches. There is more uncertainty with the second wave for
Thursday to Saturday. This does appear to be deeper/stronger,
but it also has the potential for wave interactions and
multiple waves. Also, with return of slightly more normal
temperatures (low 70s), there is the potential for a little more
organized thunderstorm activity. At this point, the
probabilities for more than 0.50 inches of rain are still fairly
low (20-30 percent). As this period gets closer, will get a
better idea on how it may unfold.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 645 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Cumulus clouds that have been hovering around 3500 ft in some
places will dissipate in the next few hours, with VFR conditions
for the rest of the period expected. Winds that are mostly
northwesterly at 10 to 20 kts will become light and variable
overnight. Will have to watch for ground fog formation towards
Sunday morning but probabilities for 3 miles or lower visibility
are less than 20 percent so will not include in the TAFs.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Sunday for NDZ006>008-
     014>016-054.
MN...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Sunday for MNZ004>009.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
DISCUSSION...Godon
AVIATION...Godon