926
FXUS64 KFWD 290444
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1144 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today Into Thursday/

The wet and at times, stormy episodes will continue with
occasional periods of severe weather. Though it won`t be
constant, there will be occasional episodes of weather between
mid morning tomorrow through early afternoon, with more isolated
coverage this evening, then another complex arriving later
Thursday morning. Granted, CAMs are struggling and nowhere in
agreement in this northwest flow aloft regime with a moisture rich
atmosphere in place. Confidence isn`t high on timing and/or
coverage of convective events through Thursday, so we`ll just have
to fine tune these forecasts as we move through the period. In
addition, these successive periods of storms will only increase
the flooding threat, including mainstem rivers and tributaries
across the area along with isolated instances of flash flooding.

On the positive side of things (if there is one), the extensive
cloud cover and rain and storms will keep humidity levels more at
seasonal norms and high temperatures ranging from the upper 70s
into the 80s, versus the 90s to near 100 degrees like last week.
Lows will continue between 65 and 75 degrees.

05/Marty

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 221 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024/
/Wednesday Night through Tuesday/

Unsettled weather will continue across North and Central Texas
through the weekend with multiple chances for thunderstorms and
severe weather. It does appear that a building ridge aloft early
next week will decease storm chances.

Subtle mid-level ridging Wednesday night should limit storm
chances overall. However, lingering moisture and the potential for
random outflow boundaries across the region warrant at least some
low chance PoPs. Thunderstorm chances will increase Thursday
through Friday with subtle shortwave energy moving through nearly
zonal flow aloft. The best storm chances will likely be overnight
Thursday/Friday morning when the steering flow becomes a bit more
northwesterly, allowing a storm complex to move southeast out of
Oklahoma. Storms should push into South Texas Friday evening while
a subtle ridge builds in from the west. The ridge will briefly
become centered over the region Saturday, resulting in decreasing
storm chances and slightly warmer temperatures. Unfortunately, the
"quieter" weather will not last long with a good potential for
West Texas dryline storms to organize and march eastward Saturday
night/Sunday morning due to yet another shortwave moving in on the
heels of the departing ridge. The potential for severe weather
will exist with wind and hail being the most likely hazards. It
is difficult to say how active Sunday afternoon will be but the
most likely scenario is that subsidence will be left in the wake
of the departing storms, limiting afternoon/evening storm
formation.

It does appear the pattern will attempt to change early next week
with a higher amplitude ridge building from the Desert Southwest
to the Central Plains. This pattern will temporarily increase
northwest flow aloft, which often carries afternoon storms from
the Central High Plains into North Texas during the overnight and
early morning hours. The most likely day/time for this to occur
would be overnight Monday into Tuesday morning.

Temperatures Thursday through Sunday will be around or just below
seasonal normals with highs mainly in the 80s. The building ridge
early next week will push temperatures into the 90s for most. A
lack of any noteworthy cold fronts will keep a humid airmass in
place through early next week.

79

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06z TAFs/

Timing rounds of TSRA/SHRA and MVFR cigs continues to be the
primary challenges with only minor tweaks to timing of both from
the 00z/03z TAF set.

The first round before 09z was changed to SHRA from TSRA as the
atmosphere across the DFW Metro Airports remains worked over, but
will maintain TSRA at Waco by 07z/08z. Next round was delayed 2-3
hours to 13z-14z per latest high-resolution models before
occurring again by 03z this evening. Confidence is not high on
timing beyond 19z, so expect more adjustments.

MVFR cigs should occur once the first weak complex of rain passes
through, then go VFR after 18z and beyond. E/SE winds 5-10 kts
will prevail throughout.

05/

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    68  83  70  83  69 /  60  80  40  60  50
Waco                69  84  73  84  69 /  40  60  30  50  50
Paris               64  82  68  81  67 /  30  60  40  60  30
Denton              66  82  68  82  67 /  60  80  50  60  50
McKinney            66  82  69  82  69 /  50  80  40  60  40
Dallas              68  84  70  84  69 /  60  80  40  60  50
Terrell             66  83  71  83  69 /  40  80  30  50  40
Corsicana           69  85  72  84  71 /  30  70  30  50  40
Temple              69  85  73  86  69 /  40  60  30  40  40
Mineral Wells       66  83  70  84  68 /  70  60  50  40  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$