732
FXUS63 KABR 022041
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
241 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds peaking this afternoon will slowly diminish through the
evening and overnight. Diminishing winds and cooling temperatures
will also alleviate fire weather concerns.

- The upcoming work week features slightly above normal temperatures
(5-15 degrees), with a pattern shift and more seasonal temperatures
for next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

Mid clouds have moved over the northeast tier of South Dakota, with
some light returns so will keep the sprinkles mention going. The
front is just east of Aberdeen, with northwest winds on the increase
across central South Dakota, and a peak wind gust of 52 mph at the
Grand River RAWS. We also have seen central/south central South
Dakota overachieve in temperatures with humidity down around 25%.
But, as we`re moving into November, we`re past peak heating so
should see winds stall then on a slow, steady decline while
temperatures drop and humidity increases. Surface high pressure
moves to the south tonight with westerly low level flow, which
continues into Monday before winds become more southerly. The next
clipper is weaker, with the core of strongest winds well south of
the CWA, and not quite as strong a push of mid-level warm air.
Surface high pressure moves overhead for Wednesday. That is followed
by another clipper Thursday. Canadian and GFS show some wrap around
QPF late, but its just a random smattering of ensembles that bring
any appreciable moisture into the area. Will stick with NBM until
we start to see better agreement between guidance and a more
thorough evaluation is possible.

As for temperatures, good mixing on westerly winds tomorrow. Milder
aloft Tuesday with the clipper. Less efficient mixing and cooler
aloft for Wednesday with placement of the high. The range in high
temperatures between the 25th and 75th percentiles becomes quite
large Thursday owing to the next clipper system.

We can see the longwave pattern beginning to break down, from the
current zonal flow across the northern Pacific fire-hosing clippers
into the Plains, to a much higher amplitude trough-ridge-trough
pattern across the CONUS with troughs over the Pacific Northwest and
eastern CONUS. This puts us under a northwest flow regime, which
would normally result in stronger cold pools with shorter
duration/weaker warm pushes in-between. This is also showing up as a
drop in confidence regarding late week/weekend temperatures, with
the NBM average being about 12 to 16 degrees Fahrenheit between the
25th/75th percentiles, or between low 40s to upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1117 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions for all terminals. KMBG/KPIR winds have already
shifted to the northwest, and KABR/KATY will follow suite in the
next few hours.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...07