735
FXUS63 KABR 291717 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1117 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snowfall continues today with additional accumulations of 1-3
  inches in central SD and 2-5 inches across northeast SD and
  west central MN. North winds will be gusty at times leading to
  blowing and drifting snow and visibility restrictions.

- Below normal temperatures continue through at least the middle
  of next week. Coldest timeframe is Sunday/Monday with temps 15
  to 25 degrees below normal. Wind chills as cold as 10 to 20
  degrees below zero are forecast for Sunday and Monday mornings.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1115 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 18Z TAFS.

UPDATE Issued at 859 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

No changes planned to the today period. Back edge of snowfall is
noted working into the northwest corner of Corson County. Probably
another 1-3 inches of snowfall possible between now and 00Z
Sunday (up to an inch out west vs up to 3 inches along and east of
the I-29 corridor). Not planning any changes to the current
headlines. Most of the CWA will see wind gusts topping out around
20-30 mph today. The far southern zones (I-90 corridor) may see
some gusts in excess of 30 mph. But, that is not expected to
happen until about the time falling snow is ending. So visibility
restrictions in mainly ground level blowing/drifting snow are not
expected to be all that bad.

UPDATE Issued at 542 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

The aviation discussion has been updated for the 12Z TAFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 436 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Snow continues to fall in most locales across the forecast area
early this morning. There even has been reports of light freezing
drizzle/freezing rain across parts of central and east central SD
since late last night. It`s certainly substantiated by HRRR/RAP
BUFKIT soundings that show a loss of ice crystals in the DGZ. They
do show that it will be brief though as that portion of the column
saturates again by 12Z. The potent storm system that brought the
latest round of wintry weather to the area will track east across KS
toward the Kansas City area by midday today and then head northeast
toward the Chicago area by midnight tonight. An elongated sfc trough
extending from this low pressure system into SD in conjunction with
the upper trough axis sinking southeast across the region will
maintain snowfall this morning across most of our forecast area. The
back edge of the precip is progged to shift into central SD closer
to the midday hours and then gradually march eastward across the
rest of our CWA through the afternoon hours finally coming to an end
in our far east sometime closer to early this evening.

Additional accumulations will range from 1 to 3 inches across most
of central SD and between 2 and 5 inches across zones farther east
from the James Valley into west central MN. The pressure gradient
will tighten up some as the morning hours wear on. Expect north to
northwest winds to kick up today, especially across central and
south central SD. Gusts in those zones will range between 30-40 mph
which will lead to blowing and drifting snow and locally reduced
visibilities. As a result of these latest trends, have made some
changes to the existing winter weather headlines. Will let the
Winter Storm Warning for Corson/Dewey expire on time at 18Z as any
impactful winter weather should be mostly done by that time. The
Winter Storm Warning for central sections of the state will expire
at 18Z and be replaced with a Winter Weather Advisory until 21Z this
afternoon. This will be in conjunction with extending to 21Z the
Winter Weather Advisory for surrounding central SD zones that was
already in place. Farther east, from the James Valley and points
east into west central MN, have extended the Winter Weather Advisory
until 00Z this evening.

A 1040mb high pressure system will gradually build into the Dakotas
late tonight through Sunday. A core of arctic air will accompany
this high and overspread the region through early next week. Cloudy
skies should gradually break up on Sunday with some sunshine
returning but it won`t help much. Sunday will start off with
temperature readings in the single digits above and below zero. With
925mb temperatures in the low to mid teens below zero C, there won`t
be much of a recovery during the day. High temperatures in the upper
single digits to mid teens look very probable. And it won`t take
much wind to produce wind chill values between 15 to 20 below zero,
especially across northern SD into west central MN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 436 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Sunday evening starts the long term with somewhat split flow aloft.
Winds are mainly out of the west over our area with a trough
extending southwest towards UT and NV. This trough will continue to
move east and join back up with the flow around Monday bringing our
winds around to the northwest. It still doesn`t look to affect us
here at the surface as high pressure will be in place in the lower
levels. Once this trough moves through, we remain in northwesterly
flow. For the later portion of the period, we get several rounds of
vorticity with flow remaining out of the northwest. The Canadian and
GFS both show a trough moving across the area Friday, although the
Canadian`s is quite a bit weaker. Down at the surface, as mentioned,
there is high pressure over the region to start. This will get
pushed out as the lower level trough moves through later Monday into
Tuesday, however, this looks to be a pretty dry airmass so no
precipitation is expected at this time. Following this, we get a
stronger push of moist air that could bring some light snow to the
region late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Then, through the end of
the period, we remain relatively saturated with the EC hinting at a
stronger low moving our of ND for the out periods.

The first half of the work week looks to remain dry before snow
chances creep back in for the second half of the week. With the more
moist atmosphere and several rounds of upper level energy, we could
see several days with at least light snow showers. Confidence is low
on this for the moment though since it is 4-7 days out. On a more
positive note, ahead of that incoming low on Saturday we could see a
bit of a warm up, potentially getting above freezing for areas west
of the James River, and maybe just shy of freezing for the James
River Valley as we get some WAA. Again, confidence is low on this as
it is just the EC showing this at the moment and the spread in NBM
Max T is about 15 degrees. Wind chills Monday, Tuesday, and Thursday
mornings are still expected to be in the teens below zero

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1115 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Snow has ended at the KMBG terminal. Snow will continue to wind
down from northwest to southeast this afternoon through early
evening at KPIR, KABR and KATY. As long as the snow persists so
will the IFR/MVFR cigs/vsbys. Once snow ends, MVFR/VFR conditions
are expected to establish and prevail through the remainder of the
TAF valid period. Expect north to northwest winds 10 to 20 knots
with gusts 25 to 30 knots at times to continue into tonight
before slowly fading toward daybreak Sunday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for
     SDZ006>008-011-018>023.

     Winter Storm Warning until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for SDZ003-
     009-010-015>017-034-036-037.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ this afternoon
     for SDZ004-005-033-035-045-048-051.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for SDZ009-
     010-016-017-034-036-037.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MNZ046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...Vipond
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...10