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000
FXUS63 KABR 101957
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
257 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST IS BY FAR THE MOST CHALLENGING.
SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION
TNT INTO TUESDAY WILL BRING INITIALLY RAIN AND THEN SNOW TO THE
CWA. ALOT OF GUIDANCE SUCH AS CARIBOU/BUFKIT SUGGEST SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH DUE TO RELATIVELY MILD SFC
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER STRONG UVM PER FRONTOGENESIS/OMEGA PROS
SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
CWA. HOWEVER MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY CONSISTENT THE LAST
COUPE DAYS...MAKING FORECAST DIFFICULT. PLUS THE CHANGEOVER TO ALL
SNOW WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL POST MIDNIGHT...OR EVEN CLOSER TO
12Z FOR SOME SOUTHERN LOCALES. SO...DETERMINING SNOW AMOUNT ITS
QUITE DIFFICULT. DECIDED TO STICK WITH WWD FORECAST SINCE IT DOES
SEEM TO BE A NICE BLEND OF THE LATEST MODELS. BUT FUTURE HI RES
MODEL DATA SUCH AS THE HRRR/RAP WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
ANY MESOSCALE SNOW BAND POTENTIAL. FOR NOW WILL ONLY PUT
CORSON/DEWEY IN AN ADVISORY GIVEN THE FORECAST OF UP TO 3 OR SO
INCHES FOR THAT AREA. UVM DOES APPEAR TO FRAGMENT/WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES ESE ACROSS CWA LATE TNT AND TUESDAY MORNING SO FOR NOW
HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY COUNTIES FURTHER EAST IN ADVISORY THINKING
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS.

ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE
EASTERN CWA TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THEN THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS
PRETTY MUCH DRY AS S/W RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE NORTHER PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF SOME FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDING WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH
OF OUR CWA AT THIS POINT. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED
TO DROP THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY. THIS WAVE LOOKS TO
BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW TO OUR CWA. OVERALL
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

THE TAF PERIOD WILL INITIALLY BEGIN AS VFR WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS
AND A LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...LATER TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION
TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST...BEGINNING AROUND KMBG IN THE 03Z-06Z TIME FRAME...AND THE
REST OF THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 06Z-09Z. PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY
BEGIN AS RAIN...BUT WILL SWITCH OVER TO SNOW...WITH HEAVY SNOWFALL
RATES POSSIBLE. GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS
FORECAST...HOWEVER THE POSSIBILITY FOR A HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW TO
SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA DOES EXIST.
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE SYSTEM IS FAST
MOVING...SO CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT
     TUESDAY FOR CORSON-DEWEY.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN