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000
FXUS63 KABR 120243 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
843 PM CST WED DEC 11 2013

.UPDATE...
THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD OVERALL. THE LEE SIDE OF
THE SISSETON HILLS IS EXPERIENCING GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY AT
PEEVER WHERE GUSTS OF 50 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED. OTHER NEARBY
LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH. WILL
HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A HEADLINE FOR NOW AS WEB-CAMS ARE NOT SHOWING
A BLOWING SNOW PROBLEM. ALSO...THE RAPID REFRESH MODELS IS SHOWING
WINDS DIMINISHING BETWEEN 6-8Z.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING

PURELY SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE CWA HAVE RESULTED IN LIMITED WARMING
TODAY...DESPITE WARM ADVECTION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AT H925. THE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AS A CLIPPER PUSHES THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA
AND MINNESOTA TONIGHT...SO LOWS WILL LIKELY OCCUR THIS EVENING
BEFORE BETTER MIXING CONDITIONS SET UP OVERNIGHT. H925 WINDS OVER
THE SISSETON HILLS WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 35KTS...AND WITH FRESH
SNOW COVER SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING SEEMS LIKELY...THOUGH THE SET IS
NOT OPTIMAL AND SHORT IN DURATION WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL IMPACTS.

THE OTHER MAIN FEATURE DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD CONCERNS HIGH
PRESSURE AS IT MOVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA FRIDAY. REGIONAL PROFILES
SUGGEST A STRATUS LAYER AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...WITH TEMPERATURES
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THUS...WILL INCREASE
POPS...THOUGH GIVEN NEGLIGIBLE FORCING ONLY ANTICIPATE VERY LIGHT
ACCUMULATION EVEN THOUGH PROFILES SUGGESTS LIGHT SNOW MAY PERSIST
FOR AS LONG AS 24 HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE HIGHLY IMPACTED BY SAID CLOUD COVER.
COLD ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN FALLING TEMPERATURES THOUGH THE
DAY...THOUGH IT WILL ALSO HELP BLUNT TEMPERATURE DROP DURING THE
AM HOURS SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH A TRANSITION IN THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW FROM SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COUPLE MORE MUCH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAYS EARLY ON WITH THE ARCTIC AIR MOVING OUT
AND PACIFIC AIR MOVING IN FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COUPLE
SHORT WAVES ALONG WITH WAA WILL BRING A FEW CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
FOR SATURDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY ACROSS THE CWA. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS INTO WESTERLY FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING BACK TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE SNOW COVER WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES.
ALTHOUGH...SURFACE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS MAY BE ENOUGH TO MIX
DOWN THE MILDER AIR. THE MODELS THEN SHOW UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
DEVELOPING INTO THE WESTERN US WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
MAY BRING CHANCES OF SNOW BACK TO THE REGION BY THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

NO RESTRICTION TO VISIBILITIES OR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AT THE AREA TERMINALS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SEWD
WHILE A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NODAK AND MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME WESTERLY LATER
TONIGHT BEFORE TURNING SOUTH AGAIN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD FOR ALL
TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...VIPOND

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN