Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 270538 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1238 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016

Issued at 1233 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016

See below for an updated aviation forecast discussion.

UPDATE Issued at 911 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2016

No major changes made to the forecast this evening. Skies remain
clear to mostly clear across the CWA and winds have diminished
some, so will continue to monitor temperatures closely. Dewpoints
have risen into the mid 30s as of 9 pm CDT, so it looks as if
current forecast for overnight lows is on track at this time.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2016

A deep upper low continues to spin north of the Great Lakes this
afternoon, keeping the Northern Plains in northwest flow aloft.
Dry conditions are expected through the short term. The upper
ridge will gain a little ground over the Dakotas on Tuesday,
settling firmly into place by late Wednesday. This means high
temperatures will be cooler over the eastern CWA than the western
CWA, with a gradient visible around the James Valley. Some cooler
air dipping into the east on arctic high pressure Wednesday
morning will also throw a wrench in the works as some stratus may
be drawn down with the shortwave in the axis of the high. Cloud
cover will keep highs on Wednesday in the 60s. Models are likely a
little too low on the highs, however, as well as a few degrees too
warm on lows.

Before the clouds move in, the main concern will be frost potential
tonight and Tuesday night. For now, it looks like lows will fall
into the upper 30s to lower 40s tonight with some isolated cooler
temps in Brown, Marshall, and Day counties. Have some patchy
frost mentioned in the grids for an hour or two toward morning. As
the gradient relaxes even more and the sfc high approaches on
Tuesday night, the potential for more widespread frost and temps
in the lower to mid 30s looks better. A frost headline may be
necessary Tue night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2016

A surface ridge axis will remain in place across MN beginning
Thursday and somewhat lasting even through the weekend. This will
still have enough of an effect on the area in that it will bring
pleasant/dry conditions to the region. Temperatures will be mild
with a steady south to southeast breeze through the time period. By
the time we get to Sunday and into early next week, more inclement
weather may be trying to enter the picture. Superblend POPs finally
bring precip chances into the area on Sunday, but not sold on this
yet and can see these POPs being reduced or cut in coming forecast
cycles. Maybe a bit better chance for precip by Monday when an
actual surface trough may be sliding through the area. At least
that`s what the GFS and EC are trying to show at this point, but
that`s still a week out. Until then though, things look dry and
pleasant from Thursday through much of the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016

VFR conditions will prevail across the area through Tuesday


.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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