Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 312029
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
329 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND WIND
AND EVEN FIRE DANGER. FOR TNT LLJ WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE AND
SHOULD PROP UP LOWS CONSIDERABLY COMPARED TO THIS MORNING. THE
GUSTY WINDS WILL LAST INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN CWA
BUT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER FIRE
CONDITIONS MAY HIT VERY HIGH ON SATURDAY GIVEN LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WITH STRONG WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW NO
HEADLINES BUT MID SHIFT WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE. PRETTY DECENT
LOOKING SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...BUT SOUNDINGS REMAIN PRETTY DRY SO NOT MUCH CHC FOR
MEASURABLE PCPN. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES WILL TURN MILDER AS
SOUTHERLY BREEZES DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. H85 TEMPS PUSH +10C ON
SUNDAY...BUT LL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WONT BE ABLE TO
MAXIMIZE THE MIXING SO ONLY WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AN UPPER TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY...HOWEVER BEST FORCING WILL FOCUS CROSS NORTH DAKOTA.
THERE MAY BE A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE THAT FOLLOWS. MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN SOME ALTOSTRATUS...BUT WILL REMAIN DRY
IN THE LOW LEVELS. THUS...THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE A PERIOD OF
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW/WARM ADVECTION LATE TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY
A SURGE IN COOLER AIR FOR THURSDAY. BEFORE CLOSING OUT THE
PERIOD...ANOTHER WAVE LOOKS TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...THOUGH THERE IS NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE WITH GUIDANCE AT
THIS POINT AS TO WHETHER THIS FEATURE WILL GENERATE ANY QPF.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR
KPIR/KMBG TODAY. WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY FOR ALL
TAF SITES...EARLIER FOR KPIR/KMBG VERSE KABR OVERNIGHT AND KATY
TOWARDS MORNING...AS SURFACE WINDS FALL TO 10 TO 20KTS WHILE 2KFT
WINDS TOP OUT AROUND 50KTS. ALL TAF SITES WILL SEE THOSE STRONG
WINDS MIX DOWN AGAIN SATURDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CORSON-DEWEY.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...CONNELLY

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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