Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 270528 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1128 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

TOUGH CALL THIS EVENING ON THE WIND CHILL/NO WIND CHILL HEADLINE.
MIDNIGHT TO MID MORNING WILL CERTAINLY BE COLD ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA WITH APPARENT TEMPS REACHING CRITERIA OF -25 TO -30. HOWEVER
WITH WIND SPEEDS ALREADY AT OR BELOW 5 MPH THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH WIND
TO SPEAK OF. THEREFORE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME AND LEFT THE REGION HEADLINE FREE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CURRENTLY...WITH A 1040HPA SURFACE HIGH BUILDING DOWN...SKIES ARE
MOSTLY SUNNY AND WINDS ARE FROM THE NORTH 5 TO 15 MPH. FOR THE
MOST PART...TEMPERATURES ARE STRUGGLING THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE TO LOWER TEENS ABOVE ZERO.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE/CENTER GOING RIGHT THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY...EFFECTIVELY SHUTTING OF WIND SPEEDS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT
BEFORE A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND DEVELOPS. OVER TOWARD THE
SODAK/MN BORDER A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND THIS EVENING MAY TRANSITION
TO MORE OF A LIGHT WESTERLY WIND OR JUST GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH AROUND. STILL LOOKS LIKE LITTLE TO
NO CLOUD COVER INFLUENCE...WITH A RELATIVELY FRESH /LESS THAN 48
HOURS OLD/ 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW COVER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA. SHOULDN`T HAVE A PROBLEM SEEING
TEMPERATURES FREE-FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW TO TEENS BELOW
ZERO AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT AND BETTER
RADIATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS BECOME MARGINAL AT BEST. SO NO PLANS AT
THIS TIME TO ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY. SOMETHING THE EVENING
CREW CAN TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...STEADY WARM UP AS RETURN FLOW SETS
UP. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT THE COLD AIR ADVECTION TO FOLLOW IS RATHER WEAK AT
THIS TIME. THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS DRY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

PERIOD STARTS OFF QUIET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY. SFC HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH
DEPARTS ON MONDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND WARMER AIR MOVES
IN. ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON JUST HOW WARM THE AIR IS ON
MONDAY WITH VARYING TEMPS AT 925MB. THERE IS ALSO SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON A POTENTIAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. GFS/GEM A BIT QUICKER THAN THE EC. GENERALLY ACCEPTED
SUPERBLEND POPS AT THIS POINT UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IS REACHED.
THEN...MODELS DO SEEM TO AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON BRINGING IN ANOTHER
SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR MID WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING STORM
SYSTEM/FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...WISE







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