Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 270541 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1241 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

06z aviation discussion updated below.

UPDATE Issued at 909 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

No major changes made to the forecast this evening. Beginning to
see some shower development just south of the CWA at this time.
Adjusted pops across the far southern CWA just a bit to account
for this. No changes made to winds or temperatures at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 303 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Fairly decent mixing responsible for mid/upper 80 degree
temperatures with dewpoints in the 40s and rh values in the teens
and 20s this afternoon. Conditions improve this evening with loss of
daytime heating, and as winds shift to a little more northerly
component, weak cold advection ensues. Weak cold advection will
continue into Monday. We will start warm advecting in the low levels
Tuesday, with an uptick in temperatures back to normal with a touch
of humidity.

As for moisture chances, there are a few plumes of mid level
moisture evident on water vapor. Tonight, weak warm advection and
isentropic ascent between 600mb and 700mb could support some
elevated showers over southwest/south central South Dakota. The
second, more expansive plume of moisture over Nevada will reach
western and central South Dakota Monday night for additional
opportunity for elevated convection. Neither of these waves supports
much for QPF according to guidance. We will have a more substantial
opportunity for moisture Tuesday night with a 30 to 40kt low level
jet pointed into western South Dakota, along with MUCAPE values in
the 1000-2000 j/kg range.  A shortwave will round the top of the
intermountain west ridge at that time. Opportunities for precipitation
across eastern counties look marginal at best with this system
however.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

The latest models continue to advertise a Rockies ridge, and eastern
CONUS trof. With northwest mid level flow over the region, timing
pcpn will be tricky. However, that said, it does appear that the
best combination of ingredients occur with a frontal passage
Wednesday night into Thursday. After that surface high pressure back
doors into the forecast area and should provide for dry conditions
late week and into next weekend. Temperatures overall will favor
near to slightly below normal for the period, especially when the
surface high builds in late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

VFR conditions will prevail across the area overnight and through
the day Monday.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...Mohr


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