494
FXUS63 KDDC 301048
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
448 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds will calm tonight and lows will drop into the teens with
  wind chills in the single digits

- Cold air continues through Monday

- A quick moving system will bring light accumulations of snow to
  parts of southwest and north central Kansas on Monday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

The current synoptic pattern is headlined only by a trough along the
northern section of the CONUS bringing snow across the majority of
midwestern states. Present RAP mesoanalysis has western Kansas
dominated by weak ridging that has been building. This will help
ease the very strong winds Saturday even further to 5-15 mph Sunday.
Additionally on Sunday, cold but seasonal temperatures are expected
to continue. Especially Sunday morning, the apparent temperature
will be in the single digits and even approach 0 degrees in some
areas. Daytime temperatures will approach 30 degrees and the
forecast focus will shift to Monday.

Models and ensembles continue to hold a snow system moving across
Kansas on Monday. The difficulty is in nailing down specific banding
in the storm. Most of heaviest snowfall will remain outside of the
CWA. The concern with accumulating amounts would be in the
northeastern counties, especially Ellis. A previous NAMNST
model run had Ellis approaching 4 inches of snow. It seems that
is not an unreasonable high-end forecast amount with ensembles
giving a 15-30% chance to exceed 3 inches. A more reasonable
estimate is in the range of 1-2 inches. With the uncertainty in
band placement that will be across the northeast/southwest, the
heaviest snow may reach as far south down to Stafford county.
There is also the reasonable outcome that the heaviest snow
misses out of the entire area with no area receiving over an
inch. Due to the lack of confidence in >1" amounts and
uncertainty in frontogenesis band placement, a Winter Weather
Advisory has not yet been issued. As more precision and
confidence is created, the final decision will be made on if
one will be needed. Other than deviant bands, snowfall will
begin around Ellis county in the very early morning by around 2
AM and last in the CWA until around noon.

Monday and Tuesday mornings will continue to see cold wind chills in
the morning in the single digits. Beyond the system on Monday,
ensembles have the synoptic flow transitioning to primarily
zonal regime. From there temperatures will moderate becoming
more seasonal with a primarily dry pattern and no significant
(>20%) chances via ensembles. Lighter winds and modest relative
humidities will keep fire weather chances low.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 448 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Light north/variable winds will start the period before winds
strengthen out of the southeast. Widespread cloud cover is forecast,
but it is not expected the ceilings lower flight conditions. HYS is
forecast to see light/moderate snow from around 2z until near the
end of the TAF period and is the only terminal expected to see
weather effect flight conditions.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...KBJ