875
FXUS63 KDDC 132004
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
204 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions continue today through the weekend with a slight
chance of precipitation Monday

- Above normal temperatures expected today and tomorrow

- Cooler temperatures return next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

The upper-level synoptic pattern continues to be a primarily zonal
regime. Near-surface RAP mesoanalysis has a weak shortwave trough
over SW Kansas, but the tangible impact on the CWA is virtually zero
outside of further contributing to the light and shifting winds
which is expected to extend and last into the weekend. Speaking of
the weekend, the precipitation outlook continues to decrease. The
probability of precipitation has dropped below 10% across SW Kansas.
Even with it getting closer, the model/ensemble disagreements and
lack of continuity continues. The system that was potentially
bringing rain Sunday is now expected to just drop temperatures
around 10 degrees resulting in highs into the 60s. This is in
contrast to the continued 70s highs from today into Saturday that
have been well above average for mid-novmerber. Despite very dry
weather, winds are expected to be primarily light enough (<20 mph)
to not warrant a Red Flag Warning. It is expected that the CWA will
be without a headline through the weekend.

The forecast focus is on the system next Thursday. However with such
a high temporal uncertainty, declaratory statements will not be made.
Further hesitancy will be used as models/ensembles completely
botched the forecast of this weekend`s system about a week out. That
said long-ranged ensembles have a system developing off the west
coast and eventually moving eastward towards Kansas. There are again
precipitation chances, but assigning values at this stage is
inappropriate. Regardless keep an eye out for this to be the next
best chance to upset the string of serene weather SW Kansas is
experiencing.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1041 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the period with mostly clear
skies. Winds will be primarily light and variable with winds
primarily around 5 KTs. Calm weather is expected to continue.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...KBJ