527
FXUS63 KDDC 032342
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
542 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather will prevail for most of southwest Kansas for the
  next 7-10 days, through at least December 12th.

- Cloudy windy and much colder Wednesday.

- Light snow near the Colorado border and the southwest counties
  Wednesday night and early Thursday. Minor accumulations up to
  one inch possible.

- Continued cold Thursday, with temperatures moderating back to
  normal Friday.

- Another dry cold front over the upcoming weekend with no
  impacts.

- Above normal temperatures expected Tuesday and next Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Midday surface observations indicated northeast winds across all
of SW KS, with cold advection in progress. Between continued
cold advection and thickening/expanding stratus, temperatures
will either remain steady or slowly fall through the 30s or near
40 through this afternoon.

Shortwave centered near the Four Corners at midday, will
continue to shear out and weaken as it enters New Mexico
tonight. Forcing for ascent ahead of this system will keep thick
clouds in place much of the night. KDDC radar shows the
atmosphere saturating along the KS/CO border, with increasing
virga, and light snow reported already at Lamar. Areas of light
snow are expected across the western counties (mainly west of
US 83 and adjacent to Colorado) through tonight, on the
northeast periphery of the New Mexico shortwave`s ascent. Snow
grids continue to carry amounts near 1/2 inch across these
zones, but models disagree how much light snow will make its way
into Kansas tonight. Some models such as 12z NAM/ARW predict
1-2 inches across Stanton/Morton counties, while global models,
their ensembles, and NBM-based probability are all much drier.
Believe current forecast is a reasonable middle ground approach
with light <1 inch accumulations with minimal impacts. High
confidence higher winter travel impacts will remain relegated to
Colorado and New Mexico through tonight. Scattered flurries
are possible anywhere tonight, before clouds start clearing out
by sunrise. Strong surface ridging >1030 mb is expected to
build into SW KS through Thursday morning, allowing winds to
decrease to light and variable. Given how cold the incoming air
mass is, most locations will fall easily into the teens tonight,
although lingering cloud cover is expected to interfere with
the efficiency of radiational cooling.

Shortwave weakens considerably Thursday, as it enters confluent
flow over the central plains. Decreasing clouds are expected
through Thursday as subsidence gradually takes over. Despite the
return of sunshine and a return flow south breeze, we will be
recirculating continental polar air Thursday, for another
uncomfortably cold afternoon in the 30s for most locales.
Temperatures are expected to moderate back to early December
normals Friday, within a few degrees of 50 at 3 pm.

This weekend through early next week, a very quiet forecast
remains in place with no impacts expected. A series of dry cold
fronts will continue, with assorted wind shifts and minor
temperature fluctuations, but no significant air mass exchanges
are expected. Saturday through Monday, both sunrise and
afternoon temperatures will average near early December normals.

A warming trend remains evident Tuesday and Wednesday, with
NBM afternoon temperature guidance climbing into the 60s.
Next week will feature a strong phase of the PNA synoptic
pattern across North America, with a strong ridge west and a
strong trough over the Great Lakes. Strong NWly midlevel flow
will be maintained over SW KS for many days, which is a very
dry pattern for SW KS during the cold season. Indeed, NBM is
completely dry through Wednesday December 10th, and ECMWF is dry
through its 10-day run through December 12th. CPC outlooks
continue with high probability of above normal temperatures and
below normal precipitation into mid December.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 539 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

A light snow event will continue to skirt far southwest Kansas
early this TAF period, and we will have light snow in a TEMPO
group early in the period at GCK and LBL, but impacts are
expected to be minimal. The prevailing flight category will
likely remain MVFR through much of the evening into the late
night, but ceilings will begin to gradually increase back up
above 3000 feet as the core of the storm system shifts south
into West Texas. The northeast wind will decrease in magnitude
and become light and variable later this evening. Light and
variable wind will then gradually become a south-southwest wind
late in the period (Friday midday/afternoon) with widespread VFR
flight category likely by sunrise or shortly thereafter.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Umscheid