809
FXUS63 KDDC 010845
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
245 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- First accumulating snow of the season for parts of southwest
  Kansas on Monday

- Total accumulations will range from around a half inch to as
  high as 3 inches

- Winter weather impacts should be minor however the timing of
  the snow will likely coincide with the morning work/school commute
  so precautions are advised

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Upper-level RAP mesoanalysis depicts a deep, positively tilted
trough entering into Colorado from Utah. A low-level low pressure
system is co-located and situated in central Colorado. CAMs and
ensembles continue to track this system into Kansas bringing snow to
the northeast half of the CWA. With this winter storm system, a
Winter Weather Advisory is in effect until noon CST Monday. It
consists of Ford county and to the east and the north.

As the system continues to move closer snow is forecast for central
Kansas. Very light snow has already developed in the northern
counties. The more substantial snow amounts are expected to develop
around 3-4 AM CST. The heaviest amounts are expected in and around
Ellis county. Localized amounts continue to be variable with it
depending on where bands situated along a northeast-southwest axis.
Ensembles have a line of 700 mb frontogenesis moving in from Garden
City to Hays. Garden City may be the farthest southwest that
measurable snow reaches with the Hays area holding the best odds to
receive the heaviest snowfall amounts. Again, this assumes the band
develops as advertised and arrives in the area during peak snowfall
rates at around 0.5" per hour. With the progressive nature of the
trough, the system will move rapidly and only place the heaviest
snowfall rates in the CWA for around 6 hours from the 4 AM - 10 AM
CST. Winds are primarily expected to be light and variable, but
visibilities may still drop in areas of the heaviest snowfall.
Travel precautions are advised with snow, ice, or dropped
visibilities. Besides travel impacts, this will be a pretty benign
and generic winter storm system. The ensembles have the SW portion of
the Advisory receiving up to 0.5 inches of snow. Amounts increase
northeastward with Hays forecast around 2 inches. Ensembles have
around a 25-40% chance to exceed 2 inches around Hays. 3 inches is
the upper bound with the probability of exceedance being <10%. Again
localized areas may receive much more or much less snow and
accumulations may vary significantly over only a few miles. Means
remain below an inch except in the northeastern counties.

After the snow and cloud cover clears, temperatures are expected to
reach and pass freezing. Most snow will melt by the end of the day
except in areas of heaviest snowfall. Beyond that, ensembles are
very dry through the rest of the forecast period. Highs will warm up
farther into Tuesday with highs around 50 degrees. This will surely
melt any remaining snow from Monday. Highs the rest of the week will
be in the 40-50s. No other very impactful weather is expected for
most of the area through the week with ensembles showing zonal flow
aloft. Mild winds and seasonal temperatures will combine with dry
weather for a quiet week. Wednesday night is the only opportunity
to disrupt the tranquility as a weak system glances the far western
counties. Ensembles have around a 10% chance for precipitation in
far west Kansas. Even if this occurs accumulations are expected to
be minimal. More concrete details will evolve with time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1105 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

A quick moving system is expected to move across Kansas in the next
24 hours. Low cloud cover is expected across the entire CWA, with
snow along the northeast half of the area. Hays is forecast to see
the heaviest snow from around 9-17Z. DDC and GCK have smaller
windows where lighter snow is expected. Anywhere that receives snow
could see visibilities dropped significantly. The duration and time
period for the snow holds some uncertainty, especially as much of it
occurs in narrow bands. Regardless, those 3 sites should be
monitored for lowered flight conditions and even at LBL it can not
be ruled out due to low ceilings. Winds will mostly be light and
shifting as the system moves through.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for KSZ030-031-
045-046-064>066-078>081.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...KBJ