532
FXUS63 KDDC 021605
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1005 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

...Updated Aviation/Key Messages...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather will prevail for most of southwest Kansas for the
  next 7-10 days, through at least December 11th.

- Temperatures return to early December normals Tuesday
  afternoon.

- Windy and much colder, with low clouds behind a strong cold
  front Wednesday.

- Scattered snow flurries Wednesday night, especially west of
  Dodge City. Minor snow accumulations possible near the
  Colorado border, with little impact expected.

- A series of dry cold front passages will continue this weekend
  and early next week, with temperature and wind flucuations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

As the storm system from yesterday has exited, along with the
associated positively tilted trough, a long stretch of quiet
weather is expected across SW Kansas. Tuesday will see weak
ridging providing mostly clear skies, lighter winds (<15 mph),
and warmer temperatures (up into the 50s). While the area is
enjoying pleasant December weather Tuesday, ensembles have
another positively tilted trough developing and digging across
the Pacific northwest.

Ensembles have the trough weakening out, but not before returning
snow chances back into Kansas, this time along the farthest western
counties. Areas along the KS/CO border have a 30% chance to see at
least 0.1" inches of snow Wednesday. The best chances are around the
timeframe of around 10 AM to 10 PM CST. Models only have
precipitable water values of 0.5". Additionally, the HRRR and some
ensemble members have the leading edge falling as rain. After a warm
Tuesday, Wednesday temperatures are not expected to be cold enough
for freezing rain to occur. However the biggest risk with this
marginal event would be if rain or melting snow falls first with
snow falling on top. This could result in spot of ice hidden by snow
that may make people slip and cars slide. Otherwise, snow
accumulations are expected to be relatively minimal due to the
positioning of the system and the lack of moisture. Ensemble means
struggle to reach 0.5" and not even the 75th percentile gets to an
inch. Unless there is a forecast change, only far western Kansas
will see snowflakes and only areas near the KS/CO border will see
meaningful accumulations. The system brings colder winds with it
with highs only in the upper 30s. This is expected to be the coolest
highs all week.

After Wednesday, ensembles have the synoptic flow returning to a
primarily zonal regime. No significant (>5%) precipitation chances
for the rest of the week and beyond. Temperatures will be mild and
seasonal that SW Kansas can typical expect in December. Relative
humidities will be high enough and after Wednesday winds will be
fairly light. This will keep fire weather risks at a minimum. As a
result it is expected that the 3-7 day, and potentially beyond,
will be quiet and without a headline.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1005 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

VFR is expected to continue through 12z Wed. Increasing south
winds after 18z Tue, with gusts 20-25 kts. Winds will trend
light and variable for a few hours this evening, with increasing
cirrus. Next cold front is expected to clear all airports by
12z Wed, with a sharp increase in north winds, gusting
25-30 kts. Strong northeast winds will continue Wednesday
morning, gusting 30-32 kts. High confidence that flight
categories will degrade after frontal passage, with consensus of
short term models forecasting IFR/LIFR stratus at DDC/GCK/HYS by
15z Wed, MVFR at LBL.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...Turner