556
FXUS63 KDDC 201115
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
515 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread precipitation event today into Friday morning,
  with 0.5-1" rainfall totals likely for much of the area.

- Another, less significant round of rainfall appears probable
  Sunday/Sunday night.

- Cool and dry Monday through the end of the period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Widespread precipitation event appears on track to impact
southwest KS beginning Thursday morning and continuing into
Friday morning.

Water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis reveal
a strong upper level shortwave trough is in place over the far
southwestern CONUS, with a secondary wave upstream just offshore
of the Pacific Northwest. Overnight into Thursday morning,
short range ensembles agree the secondary wave will dig
southward, resulting in the primary impulse ejecting rapidly to
the northeast, taking on a negative tilt in the process. As
forcing for ascent increases across southwest KS, light to
moderate rainfall will propagate northward, crossing the KS/OK
border by late morning/early afternoon and engulfing the entire
CWA by 00Z Friday. Initially, rainfall accumulations will be
modest, averaging in the 0.1-0.25" range with locally higher
amounts possible. However, latest numerical models consistently
indicate a marked increase in frontogenesis within the
900-700mb layer after 00Z, yielding a corresponding rise in
precipitation intensity manifesting in a band-like feature that
will swing northward during the 00-09Z time frame and deliver
the bulk of the event`s total rainfall. This feature will then
exit our northern CWA around sunrise Friday morning, and while
light rain may persist well into Friday near the I-70 corridor,
the precipitation event will largely be over. Once all is said
and done, rainfall totals will be in the 0.25-0.5" range across
our far southwest zones, and gradually increase with
northeastward extent to around or just above 1" near the I-70
corridor.

Daytime Friday, following the precipitation event, a combination
of evaporative cooling, northerly winds, and predominantly
overcast conditions will contribute to a wide variation in
afternoon highs. Expected values range from the upper 40s
northwest to the mid 60s southeast, contingent upon the presence
of potential cloud breaks allowing for increased solar
insolation. Skies are projected to clear on Saturday as upper
level shortwave ridging builds over the central plains ahead of
the aforementioned secondary synoptic wave that is forecast to
evolve into a cut-off low centered over the far southwest CONUS
by 00Z Sunday. Consequently, substantially more uniform
afternoon temperatures are anticipated, with highs ranging from
the upper 50s to low 60s.

On Sunday, medium range ensembles agree the cut-off low will
begin to eject northeastward towards the central plains. While
some timing discrepancies exist between ensemble solutions,
confidence is at least moderate (~60%) in another round of
precipitation Sunday or Sunday night. Translation speed of the
wave and the roughly neutral tilt suggests this will not be as
prolific as Thursday`s event, but ensemble/model consensus
suggests another 0.1-0.2" is a reasonable bet.

Monday through the end of the period, ensembles indicate
longwave troughing will envelop the entirety of the CONUS at
least through next Thursday, with an axis roughly along the High
Plains. This synoptic pattern will support generally dry, cool
conditions across southwest KS, with some hint of a strong cold
front around Tuesday that could knock temperatures well below
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 515 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Surface observations across southwest KS show patchy dense fog
has developed at HYS, GCK, and DDC, resulting in fluctuations
mainly between MVFR and IFR vis, but briefly as low as VLIFR.
Short range guidance suggests this will continue over the next
few hours before clearing as widespread precipitation
approaches by late morning/early afternoon. Once the rain
arrives, cigs will drop to MVFR then IFR, and not begin to
recover until late in the period. Otherwise, winds will remain
light and variable through 12Z Friday.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Springer
AVIATION...Springer