722
FXUS63 KDDC 261600
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1000 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Southwest Kansas will remain dry through Friday.

- A strong arctic cold front is scheduled to arrive Saturday
  morning. North winds Saturday will gust near 50 mph, with
  falling temperatures during the day Saturday.

- Wind chill indices near zero degrees Sunday and Monday
  mornings, with afternoon temperatures struggling to get above
  freezing.

- Light snow northeast zones Saturday.

- Widespread light snow possible Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Midnight surface observations indicated a freeze had already
occurred across much of SW KS, with many locations falling into
the 28-32 range. A light and variable wind regime prevailed as
a 1032 mb surface high settles over SW KS. This being said, the
radiational cooling environment is far from ideal, with a light
westerly downslope component to the winds, and more importantly
widespread midlevel clouds per infrared satellite imagery. With
the clouds acting like a blanket, temperatures will remain
steady where these clouds can persist through sunrise. In any
areas that clear for even a brief time, temperatures will fall
closer to 20 degrees through 7 am Wednesday.

Light southerly return flow is expected Wednesday afternoon,
with considerable mid/high clouds embedded in the NWly flow
aloft. Given the clouds, poor mixing, and 850 mb temperatures
holding near 0C, afternoon temperatures will fail to get out of
the 40s at most locations. Quiet dry NWly flow continues on
Thanksgiving, with light winds, and afternoon temperatures a few
degrees warmer into the lower 50s.

Midlevel flow backs to zonal Friday, in response to an
amplifying shortwave diving south through the northern Rockies.
As such, lee cyclogenesis will return to eastern Colorado,
allowing for much stronger south winds Friday. Increased wind
grids to the 90%ile of the NBM, with gusts of 40-45 mph
probable. Friday will the mildest day of the next several days,
with afternoon temperatures further into the 50s.

An intense arctic cold front will plow south through SW KS about
sunrise Saturday. All models have trended toward keeping the
parent trough open and progressive, which always works against
significant precipitation in SW KS during the cold season.
Surface cyclone is modelled to be near Dodge City 6 am Saturday,
then move east to near Wichita noon Saturday. This will open the
floodgates for the coldest air of the season to race south into
SW KS. North winds will be much stronger than NBM Saturday, with
gusts near 50 mph, and will continue to go above guidance in
this regard. Intense cold advection will force a non-diurnal
downward temperature crash during the day, with daytime highs
occurring in the early morning. For example, 850 mb temperatures
near 8C at DDC 6 am Saturday, are progged to fall to -8C at DDC
6 pm Saturday. Morning temperatures in the 40s are expected to
fall into the 20s by late afternoon.

Prospects for significant/accumulating precipitation continue to
fade, given the open, progressive nature of this system. A brief
period or rain/snow mix may clip the northeast zones in the
vicinity of I-70/Hays Saturday morning, as the surface low
tracks eastward through Kansas. NBM probability of snowfall in
excess of 1 inch are limited to this Ellis county vicinity.
Elsewhere, scattered flurries are possible Saturday as the
arctic air pours in, but with no impacts.

Cold arctic high pressure surges south over the central plains
Sunday morning, and NBM continues to trend colder, with air
temperatures well down into the teens sunrise Sunday. North
winds are forecast to remain near 10 mph, pushing wind chills
toward zero. Once the arctic air arrives, it will be here
through Sunday and Monday, with afternoon temperatures
struggling to get above freezing. The current forecast may still
be too warm, as thick clouds could easily restrict afternoon
temperatures to the 20s. Indeed, global model temperature progs
are several degrees colder than the NBM. We encourage residents
to prepare homes and autos for this first arctic air of the
season, and ag producers to prepare their livestock for the
cold.

Outside of a few flurries, Sunday is expected to remain
dry. 00z global models and many ensemble members are focusing a
round of light snow during the Monday timeframe, and 00z MEX is
already carrying likely pops for Monday. A broad overrunning
warm advection regime is forecast over the arctic air, ahead of
the next approaching trough. Snow accumulations from this appear
to remain modest, but this will be watched carefully the next
several days. High confidence that any precipitation Monday
would take the form of snow.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1001 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

VFR is expected through TAF pd. Some high level clouds today, but
that is about it. Winds will become southerly through the day as
high pressure shifts off to the east. Light winds in magnitude.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Sugden