439
FXUS63 KFGF 181512
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
912 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread weather impacts are not expected through this
  weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 911 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

No changes were made to the forecast, with sentiments in
previous Update and Discussion still valid.

The sprinkles referred to in previous Update are diminishing as
they enter into the James and Sheyenne River Valleys. Will
maintain dry forecast for now.

UPDATE
Issued at 543 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Mid level cloud covers continues to advance very slowly eastward
into the RRV and this eastward advance will continue today.
Continue to monitor the weak radar returns in central ND north
of BIS and they are weakening as they move ESE. So will watch
further to see if any sprinkles are needed to be added in parts
of the fcst area in between DVL and Valley City. Clear and cold
though in northwest MN with very dry airmass and temps well into
the teens.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

...Synopsis...

500 mb flow shows upper low near Sioux City IA and moisture
rotating northward thru S Wisconsin and southern MN and mostly
rain as ptype, with some upper ridging over ND, then another
upper low in northern Washington state with a 500 mb jet into
southern Alberta into central Saskatchewan. Withing this
Canadian part of the 500 mb jet are a couple of short waves that
is providing light precipitation the next 24-48 hours from
Calgary to Saskatoon/Regina areas. Locally though, upper ridge
north of upper low keeping our area dry with a dry surface
east wind. As upper low slowly moves east and upper ridge north
of it breaks down today mid and high clouds will advance east
thru the fcst area. Wednesday will see a short wave move into
Calgary area and then ENE thru central Canada and the southern
edge of this wave will help generate patches of light
precipitation very late tonight and into Wednesday evening, with
light rain the ptype based on temperatures. Amounts light trace
to a tenth, higher values Lake of the Woods area.

Thursday thru Sunday will see a zonal 500 mb flow along the Intl
border with likely periods of mid and high level cloud cover.
Precipitation chances are low, sub 15 pct. Even looking into
next week, precipitation chances increase a little but airmass
remains on the warmer side so wintry impacts prior to
Thanksgiving Day look minimal.

Lots of uncertainty at the very long ranges of the extended in
the day 10-15 period specifically. Long range pattern has
indicated colder air, but to what degree, and also will there be
any snowfall in associated with colder air moving in. 00z long
range ensembles, esp ECMWF, backing off of a bit, with one shot
of colder than normal temps just after Thanksgiving then core of
cold air settling back northwest. Way to early to see if any
travel concerns exist for the days after Thanksgiving at this
stage.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 543 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

VFR thru the period with a gradual increase in mid level cloud
cover into the RRV and eventually MN thru the day. May take all
day for BJI as they remain in a very dry airmass. Winds today
generally light under 10 kts, turning from more east to south-
southeast as the day progresses. Overcast mid cloud deck
anticipated Tues night with south wind 5-10 kts.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJ/Riddle
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...