559
FXUS63 KFGF 141159
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
659 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers possible today, but main rain chance is late Wednesday
  into Friday. In the late Wednesday to Friday period there is a
  50 percenet chance of 0.75 inch or more of rain in northeast
  ND. This amound of rain may affect farmers and the harvest.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 653 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Clouds are now spreading into northern fcst area after a mostly
clear night allowed temps to drop into the 20s north of Hwy 2.
Rain showers are present in central ND...it will be fighting dry
airmass below 800 mb, so regional composites will be too wet if
you will. But there is light rainfall noted spreading north-
northeast near Jamestown west.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

...Synopsis...

Now that that storm system in Manitoba has moved well northeast,
500 mb flow has become southwest over the area with widespread
mid and high level moisture spreading northeast into the
foreccast area this morning. Clear enough sky the first part of
he night to see temps drop into the mid 20s in far northeast ND
and northwest MN, but temps have stabilized since 07z. Expect a
mostly cloudy sky or becoming mostly cloudy sky today and clouds
to hold thru end of the week. Now position of the 500 mb upper
ridge over central and east Texas is keeping any deeper moisture
from advecting north, and also water vapor shows limited
moisture from the Pacific into northwest Mexico. So despite
several upper waves moving thru the next few days, rainfall will
not be as heavy as it could be.

One broad short wave and mid level jet moving from eastern
Wyoming thru northwest SD into North Dakota today, with
addition short wave energy moving western Nebraska across
central South Dakota into Minnesota this afternoon. It looks
like two areas where showers are more likely one in southwest
into parts of central ND and the other focused in eastern SD
into southern and parts of central MN. Sfc high center and dry
air over southern Manitoba into northeast ND and northern MN
this morning. Soundings from GFS and NAM for GFK and DVL show
dry air hanging on til 17z DVL and 20z GFK and hanging on all
day in BDE. So this will limit rain chances in NW MN and far
north RRV. Used a blend of NBM/Conshort/ECAM to blend with
neighboring offices and tweeked toward a drier scenario for NW
MN. Rain amounts look quite light for our area today into this
evening, under a tenth.

Strong 500 mb low dropping south along the central California
coast early this morning will move inland into Nevada and Utah
late Wednesday and then move northeast toward western ND and
eastern MT by late Thursday. Best advection of moisture is ahead
of this system as it will contain Pacific moisture, with PWATS
increasing to near 1.5 inch over the area Thursday. Sfc low with
this system will be considerably weaker than the past one, but
still will need to see about track of sfc/upper low as main
rainfall and highest chance of 1 inch or more of rain will be
near the upper low track and this may mean highest chance of 1
inch or more more west than NBM model has. NBM and chances for 1
inch or more of qpf Thu-FRi is 30 pct in Cando area and higher
farther west, and NBM has highest QPF (1+ inch) west central
into north cetnral ND, with under one quarter inch Fargo and
south/east. Regardless though high pops Thursday and more north
for Friday.

Impacts from this rainfall should be minimal, but will
potentially bring issues for farmers involved in the harvest.

Weekend into early next week shows main 500 mb lifting north
with lingering low chance for showers north Saturday and
clearing Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 653 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Increasing mid clouds today.... eventually moisture layer
deepens and forecasts from short range models indicate ceilings
lowering into the MVFR range tonight in most areas. Mainly east
wind today 5-13 kts. Showers spreading northeast today...I kept
the timing in there for thet 12z TAFs we had for 06z TAF
forecasts. Quite a bit of dry air to overcome. One of those
cases if using a regional composite especially it will show rain
move in well before any reaches the ground.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle