Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 272110

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
410 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

A vigorous short wave was moving out of Southeast Saskatchewan and
into the north-central North Dakota with scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms. Severe weather is not expected as low
level moisture is low. That dry low level (inverted V sounding) is
contributing to very gusty winds with the showers, as high as 50
mph. The subsidence behind the wave is strong and the timing would
end convection by 11 PM CDT with a quickly clearing sky to just
high cirrus. The wind was diurnally driven and too will quickly
drop off this evening.

For Sunday, similar. Diurnally driven winds increasing and under
cyclonic mid level flow look for convection again in the
afternoon. With no well defined mid level wave there should be
more distance between the showers on Sunday and they should be
more confined to the central and eastern parts of the forecast
area. temperatures, in a slightly cooler airmass, about 5 degrees
lower than today.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Memorial Day looks partly sunny and cooler as the area remains
under the influences of cyclonic flow, and is deeper into the
cooler surface airmass. By mid week H5 ridging begins to nose in
over the area with temperatures back consistently into the 70s and
likely around 80 by weeks end. The ridge shows signs of breaking
down for next weekend with decent chances, we will see, of showers
and storms.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Scattered showers and thunderstorms over the area to start the TAF
valid period, mainly KMOT to KJMS, will be moving southeast.
Environmental wind coupled with the storms fast movement and a
dry low level will cause brief wind gusts with the showers and
storms as high as 45 knots. The wave triggering the storms will be
out of the area by 28/04z. Winds were diurnally driven and will
drop quickly with sunset. For Sunday expect gusty winds again and
some showers through central and eastern North Dakota.




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