Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 312019
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
319 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA WHILE
BROAD HIGH STRETCHES THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO THE MIDWEST.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE LOW SPINS NEAR JAMES BAY BRINGING NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA WITH A VARIETY OF WEAK IMPULSES
SLIDING THROUGH.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...PARADE OF WEAK
IMPULSES CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE FLOW WHILE A WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND LIFT INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WITH
THE COMBINATION OF THESE...WILL KEEP LOW SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES GOING OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.

ON FRIDAY...SIMILAR SCENARIO CONTINUES AS VARIETY OF WEAK WAVES
MOVE THROUGH NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WHILE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL KEEP LOW POPS MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTH/WEST WITH THESE FEATURES. EARLIER HI-RES MODEL RUNS DEPICTED
SOME STRONGER CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF THE AREA...BUT HAVE SINCE
BACKED OFF SO DID NOT INCORPORATE THIS INTO THE FORECAST. IF THIS
RE-APPEARS IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO TAKE THIS
INTO CONSIDERATION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS/GEM GLOBAL ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE LARGE
HUDSON BAY CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT AS WEAK BLOCKING FLOW
DEVELOPS AND REPLACES NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. ASSORTED WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MEANDERING AROUND THE
REX BLOCK...ALONG WITH GENERAL DYNAMIC SUPPORT FROM THE ASSOCIATED
CUT OFF LOW...JUSTIFY DAILY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION.

PERHAPS THE BEST DAY FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
MONDAY...WHEN THE 12 UTC GEM GLOBAL/GFS/ECMWF ALL HAVE QPF OVER
TWO-THIRDS OF THE STATE. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW...HOWEVER...TO
BEGIN MENTIONING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...WITH QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WHILE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...JJS







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