Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 031820
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1220 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

EVEN THOUGH MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SEE NO HARM IN ALLOWING THE WIND
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE FOR AREAS NEAR HIGHWAY 83. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
BE TRENDING DOWN DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY GOING FOR POINTS ALONG AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION TO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
BASIN. GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD HOLD ON A BIT LONGER THERE.

THE REMAINING FORECAST IS ON TRACK. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 911 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS
GRADIENT FLOW IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE END TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO REFLECT THE LATEST MESOSCALE
MODEL TRENDS. BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT NOT WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS NEAR HIGHWAY 83
THIS AFTERNOON.

THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED
FORECAST HAS BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

REMOVED NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM THE WIND
ADVISORY. PRESSURE BUBBLE HAS PUSHED WELL INTO SOUTH DAKOTA WITH
PRESSURE FALLS PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER THIS AREA. EXPECT WINDS
TO PICK UP SOME THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. STILL SOME HIGHER GUSTS INTO THE MID 30S OVER THE
SOUTHWEST SO KEPT THEM IN THE ADVISORY FOR NOW. NEXT UPDATE MAY BE
ABLE TO TRIM A FEW MORE COUNTIES OFF. ALSO LOWERED SKY COVER A BIT
OVER THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AS MID CLOUDS HAVE EXITED THIS
AREA. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. KEPT THE LIGHT SNOW OVER
THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA THROUGH THE MORNING. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS
WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

THE MAIN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS.

THE ARCTIC FRONT HAS PROGRESSED THROUGH MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA BY 4
AM. A NARROW BAND OF SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LIGHT
SNOW WAS REPORTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF MCINTOSH...LAMOURE AND DICKEY
COUNTIES. THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL QUICKLY PUSH OF TO THE EAST OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ONLY LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS...LESS THAN ONE
INCH...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THESE AREAS. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG
PRESSURE RISES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WERE GENERATING STRONG WINDS
AROUND 30 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS NOW RESIDE ACROSS THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY...JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE.
GENERALLY WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS
FORECASTS SUGGESTED. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE WIND ADVISORY WILL
BE EXTINGUISHED EARLY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. BUT FOR NOW LEFT
THE ADVISORY ALONE AS SEVERAL LOCATIONS WERE AT LEAST NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

EARLIER INDICATIONS WERE THAT BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES MAY BE A CONCERN EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS THIS APPEARS TO BE UNFOUNDED. THIS IS LIKELY
DUE TO A RATHER OLD SNOWPACK AND LACK OF ANY NEW SNOWFALL. WITH
SLIGHTLY LESS EXTREME WINDS AND ONLY ISOLATED NEW
SNOWFALL...REMOVED THE MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW FROM THE FORECAST
AND WIND ADVISORY.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN...WITH
THE COLDEST AIR OVERHEAD NEAR SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE TEENS BELOW...EVEN A VERY LIGHT WIND CAN CREATE DANGEROUS
WIND CHILL VALUES. THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING...WITH WIND CHILLS AROUND 30 BELOW. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY IS LIKELY TO BE ISSUED ACROSS THE AREA FOR
TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING. FOR SIMPLICITY SAKE AND TO AVOID
UNNEEDED CONFUSION...WILL WAIT TO ISSUE WIND CHILL HEADLINES
UNTIL THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
WE BEGIN THE PERIOD VERY COLD ON WEDNESDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN DRIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. WE WILL BE DEALING WITH WIND
CHILL HEADLINES FROM THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS AROUND 12 UTC WEDNESDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 BELOW SOUTH...TO 30 TO 40 BELOW
NORTH. WITH CURRENT WIND AND WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...WILL WAIT
FOR NOW TO ISSUE ANY HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

THURSDAY WILL START OUT COLD BUT WE SHOULD SEE A NICE RECOVERY
DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST...WITH POSSIBLY REACHING THE
LOWER 40S. WE MAY STILL NEED ONE LAST WIND CHILL ADVISORY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING FRO THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PUSHES THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY WELL
NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH PERIODIC SHORTWAVE TROUGHS BRINGING
BRIEF COOL DOWNS AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY AND SUNDAY WOULD BE THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. WITH ARCTIC AIR DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH...DAYTIME
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 30S NORTHEAST TO THE 40S
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS
TO MID 20S. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WE
MOVE INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS AND MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH AND CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ004-005-012-013-
022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TM



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