Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 231243
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
643 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

ALLOWED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES IN THAT AREA ALTHOUGH BOWMAN
RADAR SHOWED DIMINISHING TREND AND LATEST KHEI OB CAME IN AT 6SM
WITH LIGHT SNOW. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS CENTRAL ND TO
MATCH UP WITH RADAR TRENDS...OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
SURFACE TEMPS RANGE FROM LOW 20S NORTHWEST TO LOW 30S SOUTHEAST.
MOST OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING SNOW FOR PRECIP TYPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ONGOING
WINTER WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.

IN GENERAL:

THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER IOWA THIS MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE/DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES AS THE MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD TODAY.
MEANWHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL APPROACH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY AND EXPAND EAST INTO THE STATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE STATE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST BY THIS
EVENING.

DETAILS FOR TODAY:

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER IOWA WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROWAL THAT
EXTENDED INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FEATURE
HAS PROVED PROBLEMATIC...AS PRECIPITATION IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
HAS BEEN SLOW TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. LATE EVENING/MIDNIGHT REPORTS
INDICATED RAIN FALLING IN LAMOURE COUNTY WITH 33 DEGREES. SOME AREAS
FROM JAMESTOWN SOUTH AND IN VALLEY CITY WERE AT THAT RAIN/SNOW
CHANGEOVER THRESHOLD. THEREFORE SNOW AMOUNTS PREDICTED FOR THE JAMES
VALLEY FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS HAVE NOT MATERIALIZED. SATELLITE
LOOPS INDICATE COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER THE JAMES VALLEY AND INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND THINK THE CHANGEOVER IS NOW
UNDERWAY. EXPECT UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IN THE JAMES VALLEY ON TOP OF
ICY ROADS...AND THIS WILL WARRANT THE CONTINUATION OF THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY THERE.

IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEST OF THE JAMES
VALLEY...LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS REPORTED.
SNOW HAS ENDED OR TAPERED TO FLURRIES IN BEACH...AND WILL TAKE
GOLDEN VALLEY AND BILLINGS COUNTIES OUT OF THE ADVISORY FOR THE 4 AM
FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES IN
THE ADVISORY AND RE-EVALUATE AT 6 AM CST WHEN THAT PORTION OF THE
ADVISORY IS SET TO EXPIRE. THE SOUTH CENTRAL ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAPER COUNTIES OFF
AS NEEDED THROUGH THE DAY.

FARTHER NORTH FROM BOTTINEAU/MINOT TO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...A LACK
OF HIGHER CLOUDS (DRY AIR ALOFT) HAS ALLOWED SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
TO OCCUR OFF AND ON. ROADS LIKELY REMAIN ICY FROM MONDAY`S FREEZING
DRIZZLE...SO THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NOT CREATING A NEW TRAVEL
HAZARD. THEREFORE WILL KEEP A MENTION OF AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
THERE AND ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THE
CONTINUED THREAT FOR THE MORNING.

BY THIS EVENING ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OUT OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WITH DECREASING CLOUDS WEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE PERIODIC CHANCES OF PRECIP EARLY IN
THE PERIOD WITH A COOLING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK. DETERMINISTIC
MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE PATTERN AS THE
PERIOD BEGINS WITH PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING INLAND
ACROSS WESTERN CONUS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED 100 KT 250MB JET STREAK BRUSHES NORTHERN ND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN PLACE...MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE IN RESPONSE TO THIS TROUGH...THOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. OTHERWISE...LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES
BY CHRISTMAS DAY WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING SURFACE LOW
WELL TO OUR SOUTH AS IT SWINGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN
NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT LIMITING QPF TO AROUND .1 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT NEAR
THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER CHRISTMAS DAY...TRANSLATING TO AN INCH OR
TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

ARCTIC AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH HIGHS DROPPING
FROM THE 20S CHRISTMAS DAY TO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH ON FRIDAY AND
TEENS ELSEWHERE. THE LOWEST WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY FOLLOWING ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A 1050 MB HIGH
LOCATED OVER WESTERN MT MONDAY MORNING AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
OVER ND. CURRENT FORECAST HAS WIND CHILLS APPROACHING 25 BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

SURFACE LOW OVER IOWA WILL KEEP STRATUS CLOUDS...LIGHT SNOW...AND
AREAS OF FOG OVER NORTH DAKOTA FOR MUCH OF TODAY. IFR CIGS EXPECTED
AT ALL TAF SITES...BECOMING MVFR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
BEGINNING AT KISN AROUND 16Z AND AT KJMS BY AROUND 21Z.  LIGHT SNOW
ENDING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...ENDING AT KMOT/KDIK BY AROUND
16Z...AND AT KJMS BY 00Z. VFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KISN/KDIK AFT 03Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ025-
036-037-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JNS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...JV






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