Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 222040

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
340 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

A low pressure system continues to push west to east across the
northern plains. Short range models have handled the precipitation
well. Rain for the most part has stayed in the northern tier
counties of North Dakota. Chances for rain will diminish as the
system pushes further east tonight.

The previous few HRRR runs have shown the potential for some fog
to develop overnight in the northwest. However with minimal low
level moisture and the potential for cloud cover in the area have
held off on the mention of fog at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Dry and mild as upper level ridging develops over the area late
Sunday. With the peak of the ridge in place over the northern
plains Monday, southerly flow will be breezy with gusts near 25
mph across central and western North Dakota.

A short wave and low pressure system looks to develop on Tuesday
over the central plains with some wrap around rain entering
eastern North Dakota Tuesday into early Wednesday. As of now the
ECMWF is slower and favors a more northern track of the central
plains low and is wetter than the GFS solution. Upper level
ridging again builds over the region behind these two waves,
bringing mild and mainly dry conditions through the remainder of
the work week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Surface low pressure in central South Dakota will move northeast
today. VFR at all tafs initially. MVFR ceilings expected to
develop KMOT-KJMS after 08z.




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