Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 261445
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
945 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

MINOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE INCLUDED 1/ EXTENDING MENTION OF
FOG IN SOUTHWEST ND THROUGH 18 UTC...AND ADDING DRIZZLE WITH IT...
AND 2/ LOWERING FORECAST HIGHS 1-3 F IN SOUTHWEST ND TODAY. FOG IN
SOUTHWEST ND HAS BEEN REDUCING VISIBILITY TO 1/4SM AT TIMES IN THE
DICKINSON TO HETTINGER CORRIDOR PER ASOS AND WEB CAM TRENDS...BUT
WE HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS THE SUB-1/2SM
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN VARIABLE IN TIME AND SPACE. THAT SAID...THE
LIGHT NORTHEAST /UPSLOPE/ FLOW AND GROUND MOISTURE /INCLUDING SNOW
THAT FELL LAST NIGHT IN SOME OF THOSE AREAS/ WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE
FOG TO LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY IN AT LEAST SOME FASHION. THAT SHOULD
ALSO SLOW SURFACE HEATING A BIT IN SOUTHWEST ND TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...TRANSITIONING TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AND
DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING. PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL...AND AN AREA OF FOG HAS DEVELOPED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST.

FOR THE EARLY MORNING UPDATED WE ADDED A MENTION OF FOG OVER THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH AROUND MID MORNING AND ADJUSTED SHORT TERM POPS
BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE THROUGH 18 UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

MORE RAIN FOR THE SHORT TERM.

EARLY THIS MORNING A POCKET OF SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES AT 850MB
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IS PRODUCING LIGHT SNOW. SOME
LOCATIONS AROUND DICKINSON HAVE SEEN MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING.

HOWEVER...MOIST...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND AN INVERTED TROUGH TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WILL BE THE FAVORED LOCATION TO RECEIVE THE NEXT ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MAIN AXIS OF
PRECIPITATION WILL SPAN FROM HETTINGER UP THROUGH WILLISTON.

UNLIKE THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS EARLIER THIS WEEK...RAIN SHOULD BE
RATHER STRATIFORM AND LIGHT. AS TEMPERATURES COOL TONIGHT TO NEAR
FREEZING...LIGHT SNOW MAY ONCE AGAIN MIX IN ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

WET WEATHER APPEARS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM FOR SOME
PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA.

FREQUENT WAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEK. AS A
RESULT OF THESE WAVES...INVERTED TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE AND KEEP
MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA IN A MOIST...EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AS A JET STREAK PROPAGATES
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL SEE THE BULK
OF THE MOISTURE. THANKFULLY IT APPEARS ONLY LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN
IS LIKELY...AND NOT HEAVY CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS. WITH LIGHT RAIN
SPREAD OUT OVER SEVERAL DAYS THIS SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS.

UNFORTUNATELY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER COOL AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS CLOSE TO FREEZING. THIS COULD LEAD TO TRANSITIONS TO SNOW FOR
SOME DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA WHERE MODELS ARE INDICATING COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 945 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OVER SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT...THOUGH SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN
A SHARP CUTOFF TO VFR CEILINGS FROM NEAR KISN TO KMOT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT AND LOWER-
CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THOSE TERMINALS TODAY. THE SAME SITUATION
MAY OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT IN THAT CORRIDOR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH/CJS



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