Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 210557

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1157 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Issued at 1157 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Forecast mainly on track, a little colder than observed. Continue
to see wind chills in -25F to -30F range across the west and
around -20F most other areas. Also continue to see some patchy
clouds across the north and other than a few flurries at Rugby
earlier this evening, no other reports of snow.

UPDATE Issued at 919 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Wind chills have already dropped below 25 below over many portions
of western North Dakota, and expect this trend to continue and
spread east through the night. Current forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 630 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Only change to going forecast was to increase cloud cover a bit
over the far north central to address some high clouds moving
through. Otherwise, forecast remains on track.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)

Issued at 303 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Forecast highlights in the short term period will be cold
temperatures through tomorrow, including wind chill headlines

Currently, long wave trough over the western and central United
States, with an embedded S/WV trough pushing east across western
North Dakota. A dry and quasi-breezy westerly low level flow
across western and central ND, with sfc high pressure off to our
southeast, results in a dry afternoon with some mid level clouds
across my north along to ahead of the aforementioned shortwave.

Besides the north where a few upper level clouds will advect into
tonight, existing mid level clouds will lift northeast with the
S/WV this evening. Surface high moves slowly east-southeast into
the Central Plains tonight, with a sfc ridge axis extending back
northwest from central SD to eastern MT. This will maintain a
steady westerly sfc flow of around 10 MPH. Combined with lingering
cold air associated with the high pressure (with some additional
CAA north tonight), resultant wind chill temperatures will fall
into the advisory range for much if not all of western and central
ND later this evening and into mid morning Wednesday. Thus will
hoist a wind chill advisory area wide with this product issuance.

Southwesterly flow on Wednesday will see a slight moderation in
temperatures along with dry conditions. Still below average highs
with daytime temperatures in the upper single digits to mid teens,
10-20 degrees below normal for late February.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)

Issued at 303 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Models remain in agreement with maintaining an upper level trough
over the western CONUS through the work week, placing the
Northern Plains in southwest flow aloft. This pattern supports
moderating temperatures into the 20s by the weekend and mostly
dry weather. The exception will be Thur-Thur night when an
embedded wave lifting through the Central Plains will bring with
it an area of precipitation, clipping my southeastern counties.
No impacts expected at this time.

Model uncertainty ramps up for early next week with a variety of
solutions. It does appear to become more active, just to what
degree is the question.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1157 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Winds were a
little gusty at KMOT at 24019G26, but expected to gradually
diminish overnight.


Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ Wednesday for



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