Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 170145
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
845 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 839 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

For mid-evening update have pushed chances for showers a bit
further north and added the potential for a thunderstorm. Latest
RAP analysis places an area of weak cape generally over the Lake
Sakakawea region where a weak cell has developed. Do not expect
severe out of this given the weak instability. This should
diminish, though, over the next few hours as indicated by the
latest guidance.

UPDATE Issued at 627 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

Main change for evening update was to add patchy fog generally
along and north of Highway 200 as latest run of high res-models
continues to indicate some fog developing after midnight as cooler
airmass backs its way into the area. Have also increased cloud
cover going into this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

Showers and thunderstorms have come to an end across western and
central North Dakota. A few isolated showers are possible again tonight
across southern North Dakota with an upper level jet remaining
nearby, but the majority of the area will remain dry.

Cool northeast winds will bring in upper 30s and low 40s
temperatures tonight.

Wednesday looks dry and breezy as another system develops across
the Central Plains and the pressure gradient steepens.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

Cool and dry through the rest of the week. Latest model runs keep
the main storm track south of North Dakota through the week. This
will keep all but extreme southern North Dakota free from any
precipitation chances. Much colder air from Canada will move in
and we`ll likely see frost two or three nights this week as
overnight lows dip in the low 30s. Temperatures should moderate
back into the 40s for lows and 60s for highs by the end of the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

MVFR cigs over the southern James River Valley are expected to
improve to VFR this evening, while other areas remain VFR. Cigs
are expected to diminish towards early morning, decreasing to MVFR
with localized IFR. Also, some patchy fog may develop late tonight
into early Wednesday morning over portions of the area.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JJS



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