Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 261748
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1248 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SNOW HAS MOVED OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. HAVE
UPDATED TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST...DROPPING A FEW DEGREES
IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED SNOW OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING. LOWERED
SKY COVER A LITTLE IN THE EAST WHERE HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 851 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPDATED POPS/WX BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND RAP/HRRR REFLECTIVITY
TRENDS. PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED OVER THE NORTHWEST AND SHOULD
QUICKLY TAPER OFF OVER THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. EASTERN EXTENT
OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS ERODING...THIS TRIMMED POPS TO REMAIN
WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

RADAR...SURFACE REPORTS AND WEB CAMS CONFIRM LIGHT SNOW EXTENDS
FROM WILLISTON SOUTH THROUGH HETTINGER. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THERE
COULD BE SOME SNOW AS FAR EAST AS BISMARCK. EXTENDED THE
CHANCE AREA TO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF EXPECTED DICKINSON TO
HETTINGER. ALREADY MOVING OUT OF WILLISTON AT THIS TIME SO BY 10
AM CDT MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL BE OVER. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SNOW WEST
THIS MORNING...THEN A WINTRY MIX WEST INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED NORTH TO SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. EMBEDDED
MID LEVEL ENERGY COUPLED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET IS TICKLING THE BOUNDARY AND TRIGGERING A BAND OF SNOW
FROM NORTHEASTERN MONTANA TO ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
POPS WERE INCREASED ACCORDINGLY WITH BOWMAN RADAR PRETTY MUCH LIT
UP AND SEVERAL OBSERVING SITES NOW REPORTING SNOW. WILL MAINTAIN
SOME MENTION OF THE SNOW IN THE HWO...MAINLY FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS
WITH REDUCED VIS IN FALLING SNOW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ICY ROADS.
OVERALL AN INCH TO INCH AND ONE HALF MAX EXPECTED.

BAND OF SNOW WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE/PUSH OFF TO OUR SOUTH MID TO
LATE MORNING AS FORCING PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH. SLIGHT TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY TODAY BUT STILL SEASONAL/CHILLY WITH BEST RETURN FLOW/WAA
OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST...WHERE HIGHS WILL NEAR 50F. 30S AND 40S
ELSEWHERE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING EAST INTO THE ROCKIES TONIGHT WILL
NUDGE THE SFC BOUNDARY EASTWARD BRINGING WAA FARTHER EAST INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. UPPER JET ALOFT AND ANOTHER EMBEDDED
S/WV MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION TO WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THERMAL PROFILES AND MODEL SUGGESTED SFC TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX...MAINLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE STATE. ALL SNOW SHOULD FALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL THROUGH 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MODELS TRENDING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL
GENERATE SOME FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES AND WILL GENERALLY BRING A MILD
WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION. CONCERNS THIS PERIOD INCLUDE A MIXED
PRECIPITATION EVENT ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME GUSTY WINDS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES SHOULD BRING AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR SPECIFICS...FRIDAY WILL SEE A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN MONTANA
MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A WINTRY
MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW IN A NARROW BAND
FOLLOWING THE FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS PORTRAY FEW
HOURS OF POTENTIAL FREEZING RAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY MORNING. TO THE EAST AND NORTH CENTRAL PRIMARILY
ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED. BY AFTERNOON DECREASING CLOUDS AND MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN WEST...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTHWEST. COOLER WITH 30S AND AND 40S NORTH AND EAST.

BY SATURDAY THE WARM AIR WILL PUSH EAST. WITH GOOD MIXING WILL SEE
HIGHS AROUND 70 SOUTHWEST...60S CENTRAL AND 50S EAST.

FOLLOWING THIS WARM PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
STATE SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY BE MET WITH H850 WINDS OF 45 TO 60 KTS ON THE GFS. ONLY
PROBLEM IS THE WIND IS ARRIVING IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. NAM AND ECMWF A BIT LESS WINDY AT H850.

GOOD MIXING AGAIN ON SUNDAY SO WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S. MILDER AIR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 60S AS ANOTHER
H500 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOLLOWING THIS...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND BRING AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND
50S...PRIMARILY RAIN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR CEILINGS AT DICKINSON MINOT AND BISMARCK TO START THE TAF
PERIOD. EXPECT BASES TO RISE QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MAY
LINGER A LITTLE LONGER AT KDIK NEAR MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES INTO
KDIK AND KISN AROUND 07-12Z...KBIS AND KMOT AROUND 11-17Z AND INTO
KJMS AROUND 15Z FRIDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH





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