


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
310 FXUS63 KBIS 300540 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1240 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy through Monday, with slightly cooler temperatures and lower humidity. - Other than a 20 percent chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm in northern parts of the state late this afternoon and this evening, dry weather is expected through Tuesday afternoon. - Above normal temperatures are favored Wednesday and Thursday, with highs possibly reaching 90 degrees. - Low chances for showers and thunderstorms during the evening and overnight hours Tuesday and Wednesday, then medium chances late Thursday. Widespread severe storms are not expected at this time. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1239 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 More prevalent showers are now beginning to enter north central North Dakota. No lightning has been observed with this activity over the last few hours. Some minor adjustments were made to the PoP forecast overnight, but overall the forecast remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 A line of weak to moderate reflectivities have been slowly moving southward over Lake Sakakawea at the time of this late evening update. With this update, have opted to extend PoPs a little further south than found in the forecast to account for these potential showers over the next few hours, when this activity is anticipated to diminish. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 640 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 We made some minor adjustments to pops, extending them down a little farther south over the northern CWA. We had some gusts to 40-45 mph early on after this shower activity developed, but coverage has backed off and gusts haven`t been as high. Also added some slight chance for thunderstorms over the far south central into the James River Valley, in an area of modest CAPE and effective shear. Updated text products will be transmitted shortly. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 229 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Latest satellite imagery shows a broad cyclonic upper level flow from the southern Canadian Prairie Provinces, into the Northern High Plains with a number of impulses tracking through the general upper level flow. At the surface, low pressure extended from the northern Great Lakes into the Central Plains, with high pressure over the Northern Rockies. For tonight, surface high pressure will track east from the Northern Rockies, into the Northern Plains. An impulse moving through the Northern Rockies has sparked convection for southeast Montana, south to the Black Hills. This thunderstorm activity is moving pretty much due east, and should remain south of the state line, in South Dakota. Additional impulses were located from southeast Saskatchewan into eastern Montana. These impulses have produced isolated showers from northeast Montana, east into far north central ND. This shower activity will persist over the northern tier counties of western and central ND into this evening. The overall general cyclonic flow from southern Canada will drop southeast overnight, pulling more widespread cloudiness from southern Canada, at least into the northern and eastern portions of the forecast area. A decent surface pressure gradient should also help keep it on the breezy side overnight. On Monday, the Canadian shortwave trough drops southeast into the Upper Great Lakes region. This could keep a chance of shower activity in the far eastern portions of central ND, but most activity should remain over eastern ND and into northwest Minnesota. A stray shower or two can not be ruled out though from the Turtle Mountains into the James River Valley. It will be breezy again Monday, moreso over central ND, compared to the west. In general, temperatures will be similar to today, but a little cooler southeast and a bit warm north and west. We remain within a northwest upper flow pattern Tuesday and Wednesday with increasing temperatures each day. By Wednesday we should be well into the 80s most areas, with some 90 degree readings possible in the west. Impulses propagating through the northwest upper flow will provide small chances (20 percent) for showers and thunderstorms. On Thursday we shift from a northwest to a southwest upper level flow with a building thermal ridge and a noticeable increase in moisture. Although there is not a distinct signal for severe weather, the increasing instability should yield at least some chances for thunderstorms as we head into the Independence day Holiday. The CSU machine learning page is hinting at low probabilities for severe storms on both the 3rd and 4th of July. The envelope of ensemble solutions remains broad at this time but NBM ensemble Pops have increased to widespread chance and even some likely Pops Thursday night through Friday night. We`ll see how things evolve as we move through the upcoming short work week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1239 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Scattered showers are possible across north central North Dakota overnight. No impacts to aviation are anticipated. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast period. Northwest winds will increase to 15-20 kts on Monday, gusting to 25-30 kts. The strongest winds are expected at KJMS and surrounding areas. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Hollan DISCUSSION...TWH AVIATION...Hollan