000
FXUS63 KBIS 151741
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1241 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Showers continue to stream northeast from western into north
central ND. Latest satellite indicates shortwave energy lifting
northeast from eastern Wyoming, which will move into the Dakotas
this afternoon. BUFKIT models soundings support this with
increasing omega this afternoon over central ND. Have adjusted
pops lower late morning through early afternoon and then increased
them through mid afternoon. Otherwise no significant changes to
the going forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 950 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Minimal changes with the morning update. Updated pops based on
latest radar. Populated latest sensible weather elements and
blended to late morning values. Otherwise current forecast is on
track.

UPDATE Issued at 633 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

The precipitation area has been diminishing recently but now
seeing some new development across the south central which would
agree with the recent model runs. Shortwave trough showing up
across central wyoming and as this feature moves northeast the
high pops look reasonable for the late morning and afternoon as
the shortwave catches up and moves through.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms highlight the short
term.

An upper level wave and jet streak continue to swing through the
Northern Plains. There is ample lift and low level moisture to
support widespread showers today. Instability will be mainly
focused across South Dakota, thus keeping any threat for severe
weather south of the area. The short-term models show mainly
showers for today with a few isolated thunderstorms later this
afternoon south. Widespread quarter to half inch amounts can be
expected today, with higher amounts possible across the southern
James Valley.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Warmer and drier weather expected in the long term period

An upper level ridge is expected to push in by the end of the week.
Generally, Wednesday and Thursday appear dry. A shortwave trough
drops through the area on Thursday night and Friday bringing a
chance of showers and thunderstorms northwest to southeast across
the area. Then another chance of storms Sunday. After highs in
the 70s Wednesday, daytime highs are expected to be mainly in the
low to mid 80s Thursday through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Main impacts to aviation will continue to be widespread MVFR and
IFR ceilings associated with showers and isolated thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening. Stratus will linger and expand to
cover much of North Dakota overnight impacting possibly all
terminals, especially KBIS-KMOT-KJMS. KDIK-KISN will be on the
western fringes of the stratus deck.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...NH