000
FXUS63 KBIS 260245
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
945 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 932 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

High pressure will build over the forecast area tonight. Mostly
clear skies are expected overnight with only a few mid and high
level clouds skirting the skies. The main forecast issue this
evening will be winds and resultant temperatures. Even with the
moderate pressure gradient, temperatures continue to drop faster
than forecast over western ND. Have utilized a blend of Numerical
Mos guidance blended with our current forecast to trend
temperatures lower. Instead of upper 30s and lower 40s, we are now
looking at mid to upper 30s for lows across a good portion of the
forecast areas. Eastern portions of central ND should remain in
the lower 40s with stronger winds remaining through the night.

Lowering forecast lows brings an increase to frost potential.
Considered a frost advisory but with the surface ridge axis still
to our west Monday morning, we do expect winds to remain in the 5
to 10 mph range for most of the central, with some lighter winds
around 5 mph in the west. This should help inhibit frost
development. But with current dew point temperatures in the lower
to middle 30s, think it`s wise to drop temperatures a bit.

With the surface ridge to our west, it still looks to breezy to
windy in eastern portions of central ND on Monday so bumped up
winds in the east Monday afternoon.

UPDATE Issued at 519 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

Surface low pressure continues to lift northeast out of the
region. Currently winds are gusting to around 45 mph from Minot
to Jamestown. Expect winds to diminish below advisory criteria by
6 PM or shortly thereafter. Will let the wind advisory expire as
intended at 6 PM. Otherwise no significant changes other than
populating latest sensible weather element and blending to early
evening temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

Frost potential tonight highlights the short term.

Strong northwest winds will continue this afternoon southwest of
deep low pressure across northeast Manitoba and western Ontario in
the wake of a cold front entering northwest Minnesota. No changes
needed to the current wind headlines at this time.

While winds will diurnally decrease, they are expected to remain
between 7 and 10 kts for most areas through the night. This should
be sufficient to prevent frost formation tonight despite the
relatively cool airmass in place. The area that would have the
best likelihood for patchy frost is the far west where winds will
be weakest. Given uncertainty, will forgo any frost headlines and
allow the conditions to be monitored into the evening.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

Mostly dry conditions will dominate the long term forecast.

Cyclonic flow aloft is expected into Wednesday, as a closed low
lingers over the Great Lakes region. The 12Z global ensemble and
deterministic suites depict an upper level ridge building over
the Northern Plains by Wednesday afternoon, transitioning into
southwest flow aloft by Friday. This favors a return to possibly
above normal temperatures. As flow transitions to southwest aloft,
precipitation chances, including the potential for a few
thunderstorms, return to the forecast late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 932 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

VFR flight conditions and west to northwest flow will continue
through the 00Z taf forecast period. Breezy at KMOT and KJMS
Monday afternoon with wind gusts to around 25 kts.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...TWH