Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 262018
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
318 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

A cold front, currently across far western North Dakota, will
continue to slide eastward through this afternoon and evening.
Ahead of the front skies have cleared and a line of thunderstorms
have developed along an axis of instability (500-1000 J/Kg).
Shear is limited and instability isn`t overly impressive, so
severe storms or organized cells aren`t anticipated at this time.
As instability decreases with sunset, coverage of showers and
thunderstorms is expected to decrease. Southern North Dakota
appears most likely to see showers and thunderstorms overnight as
the main surface low is located over northern South Dakota.

Showers and thunderstorm chances remain across portions of the
James Valley tomorrow as the low lifts northeastward across
the eastern Dakotas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Warmer temperatures and dry conditions will highlight the long
term.

Warm air advection and the presence of a surface trough will boost
temperatures Sunday into the upper 80s and 90s.

Westerly flow aloft and the development of an upper level ridge
will keep most of the Northern Plains warm and dry through next
week. Several waves may ride over the ridge and act to deamplify
the flow by mid/late week. This could once again bring chances of
precipitation back to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through the TAF
period. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms could impact some
terminals later this afternoon and evening, but confidence is not
high enough to warrant anything more than a vicinity mention at
this time.


&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AJ



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