000
FXUS63 KBIS 280703
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
103 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 103 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN UPDATES WITH THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO ADJUST
SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST MODEL DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND
EXPANDING THE AERIAL COVERAGE OF FOG OVER THE JAMES AND WESTERN
DEVILS LAKE BASINS.

CLEARING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
BEFORE WE CLOUD UP AGAIN IN THE MID LEVELS LATER THIS MORNING.
WILL ALSO SEE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MOVING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER 10-12Z WHICH WILL THEN SURGE SOUTH OVER THE REMAINDER OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY TO MID DAY.

DENSE FOG BEING REPORTED AT SEVERAL OBSERVING SITES...BUT
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT
THINKING IS WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES FOR NOW AND THROW OUT A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 902 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOG REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

SOME FOG HAS MANAGED TO WORK ITS WAY INTO PORTIONS OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING...SO HAVE SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO
ADDRESS THIS. HAVE STRETCHED IT UP INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WHERE LIGHT SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOR EVENING UPDATE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AS HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER UPPER RIDGE INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AFTER A DAY OF RECORD
SETTING TEMPERATURES OVER MANY PARTS OF THE REGION. ONLY OTHER
CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG SNEAKING INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS AS IF THIS SHOULD
STAY OFF TO THE EAST THOUGH WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

RECORDS HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN BROKEN ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. HERE ARE THE OBSERVED HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST.

LOCATION          TUE HI TEMP  TUE HI TEMP
                  OBSERVED     RECORD
                  3 PM CST

DICKINSON         62 (RECORD)  51 IN 2008
WILLISTON         53 (RECORD)  47 IN 1931
BISMARCK          52 (RECORD)  48 IN 2008
MINOT             49           55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         41           47 IN 1989

MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CRESTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH FORECAST LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S
EAST TO THE 30S WEST.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...TRIMMED CHANCE
POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH. FURTHERMORE...WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. WILL THEREFORE HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AND HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR
NOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT 12Z
MODEL RUN PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT
WAVE/SNOW. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ALBERTA LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES
FOR SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE STATE. THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 12Z MODEL
PACKAGE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF IS LIGHTER ON QPF THEN THE 12Z
GFS/GEM...WHICH ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE ACROSS THE STATE. AT THIS
POINT...UNCERTAINLY REMAINS ON LOCATIONS/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE
MODELS DO AGREE ON SNOWFALL POTENTIAL DIMINISHING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 103 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AND
MAY CONTINUE. THIS INCLUDES KJMS. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL
IFR OR LOWER CIGS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA AFTER 12Z THIS
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO MID-DAY. STRATUS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RELATIVELY LIGHT RAINS...BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO
NEAR ONE-HALF INCH FELL ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE
STATE THIS PAST WEEKEND. THIS MODEST RAINFALL HAS PRODUCED
UNUSUALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF RUNOFF. SOME STREAMS REMAIN AT LEVELS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE AFFECTED STREAMS
INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...THE KNIFE RIVER...HEART RIVER...
CANNONBALL RIVER...BEAVER CREEK NEAR LINTON...AND THE LITTLE
MISSOURI RIVER. WHILE NO REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED...SEVERAL REPORTS OF MINOR ICE JAMS INDICATE THAT ICE IS
MOVING AT SOME LOCATIONS AND IT IS LIKELY THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE IN THE WEEK.

NOT ONLY ARE SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS RUNNING HIGH...BUT SEVERAL
RESERVOIRS ARE RISING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED INFLOW. SHORELINE
CONDITIONS AS RESERVOIR AND RIVER LEVELS RISE DETERIORATE AND CAN
POSE A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD FOR ACCESS. ANGLERS ARE URGED TO
CAREFULLY CHECK THE ICE BEFORE VENTURING OUT WITH A VEHICLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...NH
HYDROLOGY...AJS