000
FXUS63 KBIS 071238
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
638 AM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 638 AM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST WAS TO ADJUST SKY
COVER LOWER OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA. A PATCH OF STRATUS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA MOVED THROUGH MINOT RUGBY AND ROLLA AND IS
NOW PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND VERY COLD. THE LOWEST TEMPERATURE THROUGH 6 AM HAS BEEN
-27F AT HETTINGER AND THE LOWEST WIND CHILL -50 A DICKINSON. NO
CHANGES TO THE CURRENT WIND CHILL WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM IS CONTINUED DANGEROUS COLD.

THE WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 18 UTC TODAY. WIND CHILLS OF 40 F TO
45 F BELOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE
WARNING WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE CONVERTED INTO A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS TO 35
BELOW EXPECTED. ANOTHER SUB-ZERO DAY IS FORECAST CWA WIDE TODAY
GIVEN THE VERY COLD START...SNOWPACK AND STAGNANT ARCTIC AIRMASS.
A BLEND OF THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE WAS UTILIZED FOR HIGHS
TODAY...AS LITTLE SPREAD EXISTS AMONGST THE STATISTICAL AND
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS. FOR TONIGHT...GREATER WEIGHT WAS GIVEN
TO THE DETERMINISTIC CONSENSUS WHICH HAS VERIFIED BETTER FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES THAN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.
THIS SHOULD ALSO CAPTURE THE IMPACTS A BIT BETTER OF LOW LEVEL
MIXING AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SHORT WAVE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 20 F
BELOW NORTH TO NEAR 10 F BELOW SOUTH. A DUSTING OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED FAR SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUE TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND RESULTING WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS. ALSO A
CLIPPER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING LIGHT SNOW AND
POSSIBLY STRONG WINDS WHICH MAY NECESSITATE AN ADVISORY FOR SNOW
AND/OR BLOWING SNOW.

SUNDAY WILL START OUT VERY COLD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 40 BELOW ZERO. THE SOUTH WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A
SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE REMAINING TO THE SOUTH. BUT WITH
SNOW RATIOS AROUND 20 TO 1 WE COULD SEE A HALF INCH OF SNOW FROM
DICKINSON NORTHEAST TO HARVEY AND CARRINGTON. THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
FROM LINTON AND ASHLEY TO ELLENDALE COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH. A QUICK
REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOW WITH WIND CHILL CONCERNS
ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

A QUICK MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST TO NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOW TO THE AREA ON MONDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING WINDS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT WITH GENERALLY AND INCH OR LESS ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND POSSIBLY UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST INTO THE EAST CENTRAL...OR FROM CROSBY THROUGH MINOT AND
GARRISON TO RUGBY...HARVEY AND CARRINGTON. A CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF
THE LOW COULD SHIFT THE HEAVIER SNOW FARTHER NORTH OR SOUTH.

THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. 00 UTC 7 DEC GFS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS
SWEEP FROM WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA MONDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION...A STRONG FALL/RISE PRESSURE
COUPLET TRACKS FROM NORTHWEST INTO EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY
EVENING...JUST AS THE STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION PUNCHES ACROSS THE
SAME AREA. PREVIOUS SHIFT BUMPED UP WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS AND THIS
WAS WASHED OUT SOMEWHAT BY THE ALLBLEND SO BUMPED WIND UP ANOTHER
2-3 KNOTS AGAIN. EXPECT WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 40
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND POSSIBLY STRONGER IF MOMENTUM TRANSFER
CAN BRING THE STRONGER WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WILL CONTINUE A
MENTION IN THE HWO FOR NOW AND WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO MONITOR FOR
SNOW/BLOWING SNOW HIGHLIGHTS. ESPECIALLY SINCE OUR CURRENT SNOW HAS
NOT CRUSTED OVER.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE CLIPPER ON TUESDAY AND ANOTHER COLD
DAY IS ANTICIPATED WITH WIND CHILL CONCERNS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTH
ON TUESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES TRACKING FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EACH
BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE MID 20S
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THEN DROPPING BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 06 UTC TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THEREAFTER...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN
LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 12 UTC
SUNDAY...POSSIBLY IMPACTING KDIK...KBIS AND KJMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CST /NOON MST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AYD