000
FXUS63 KBIS 212350
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
650 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

TORNADO WATCH 426 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME WITH ALL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NOW MOVING INTO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 427.
SCALED BACK ON POPS 6-12Z WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION.


UPDATE
ISSUED AT 510 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

WILL TRIM ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES ACROSS THE WEST FROM THE TOR
WATCH. ALSO...PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONVERT FROM A
TORNADO WATCH TO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AS DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT AS THE CONVECTIVE MCS DEVELOPS EAST
PAST THE MISSOURI RIVER. THOSE COUNTIES ALONG THE MISSOURI WILL
REMAIN IN A TOR WATCH...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 440 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

SCALED OFF A FEW WESTERN COUNTIES FROM TORNADO WATCH NUMBER
426...AND WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO TRIM SOME MORE NEXT HOUR. LINE
OF ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. REPORTS OF 70 MPH WINDS AND HAIL AS LARGE AS
BASEBALLS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WEST OF BISMARCK AND MANDAN. THESE
STORMS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS FROM GARRISON SOUTH TO THE SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH AS THUS FAR
REMAINED SUB-SEVERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS IN PROGRESS WITH A TORNADO WATCH IN
EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EXCEPT
FOR DIVIDE AND WILLIAMS COUNTIES.

THE 18Z KBIS SOUNDING SHOWS 153 J/KG OF CIN WITH 3692 J/KG OF
CAPE. TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED IN THE 700MB TO 500MB LAYER SINCE
12Z. PWATS HAVE INCREASED FROM 1.19 TO 1.33. POTENTIAL WIND
GUSTS/WINDEX IS AT 54KT. FULLY EXPECT CIN EROSION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

A BRIEF UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN SHIFT FROM PROGRESSIVE TO BLOCKED
OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA DOES NOTHING TO SQUELCH CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST UNTIL SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)


ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...NOW MAINLY
IMPACTING KJMS THROUGH 02Z. IFR/LIFR STRATUS ACROSS THE WESTERN
TERMINALS...MAINLY KDIK THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. VCFG
AND OCCASIONAL MVFR-IFR CIGS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...NH