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000
FXUS63 KFGF 110548
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1148 PM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE GOING FORECAST. LOWEST WIND CHILLS HAVE
BEEN AROUND 36 BELOW...AND CONDITIONS STILL SEEM GOOD TO BOTTOM
OUT BY EARLY MORNING JUST ABOVE 40 BELOW. WILL MAINTAIN THE
CURRENT WIND CHILL HEADLINES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 PM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

LOWERED CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AS ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES DOES NOT HAVE MUCH COVERAGE VIA SATELLITE. MADE SOME
FURTHER TWEAKS TO TEMPS...BUT LOWS STILL SEEM ON TRACK TO BOTTOM
OUT IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20 BELOW ZERO. A FEW SPOTS MAY GET CLOSE
TO WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA...BUT IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT IT WILL
BE FOR VERY LONG OR VERY WIDESPREAD. WILL MAINTAIN THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FOR NOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 PM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN LINGERING OVER THE ELBOW LAKE
AREA...SO INCLUDED SOME POPS THERE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT ANY
PRECIP SHOULD END SOON AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH.
LOWERED TEMPS A BIT IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS READINGS THERE
HAVE DROPPED A BIT FASTER THAN EXPECTED. TEMPS HAVE STAYED ABOVE
ZERO SO FAR IN THE SOUTHWEST...BUT THINK THEY SHOULD QUICKLY DROP
OFF AS CLOUDS MOVE OUT. WIND CHILL ADVISORY HEADLINE CONTINUES TO
SEEM REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

THE MAIN STORY WILL REMAIN THE BITTERLY COLD WEATHER AND
ASSOCIATED HEADLINES...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW CHANCES. MODELS ARE IN
VERY GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...AND NO REAL PREFERENCE TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL PLUNGE THROUGH THE
REGION...AND IT WILL BE BITTERLY COLD WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS
TO NEARLY 40 BELOW BY LATE TONIGHT IN MOST AREAS. WE WILL ISSUE A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE AREA...WITH A WIND CHILL WARNING NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH 40 BELOW OR SLIGHTLY COLDER A
POSSIBILITY. THE EVENING AND NIGHT CREW WILL MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL
WIND CHILL WARNING HEADLINES. FOR NOW...GIVEN THAT WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED...AIR TEMPS AROUND 20 BELOW AND WINDS NEAR 10KT
WILL PRODUCE FRIGID CONDITIONS INTO WED MORNING. WE WILL CONTINUE
THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 18Z WED.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WAA WILL BEGIN ALOFT BUT SFC TEMPS WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO FOR MOST. AN EXTENSION OF THE NEVER
ENDING WIND CHILL HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST
PARTS OF THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

FOR THU/FRI...EXPECT SOME MID LEVEL WAA TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES. THURSDAY THE MERCURY COULD CLIMB ABOVE ZERO IN ALL
AREAS...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST MODELS ARE A BIT COLDER SO WE WILL SEE
HOW WARM WE GET. COLDER AIR WILL ADVECT BACK INTO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY WITH SOME CONTINUED VERY LIGHT SNOW CHANCES...AND TEMPS
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO NORTH TO NEAR 10 ABOVE SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FRIDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE COLD ONCE AGAIN...WELL
BELOW ZERO NORTH TO AROUND ZERO SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING ANY
PERIOD WILL HINGE ON DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER AND IF DECOUPLING
OCCURS...SO WE MAY BE TOO WARM IN SOME AREAS GIVEN OUR SNOW PACK
AND COLD WEATHER REGIME.

FOR FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...NOT MUCH ALTERATION NEEDED FOR
THE EXTENDED AS MAJOR GUIDANCE DEPICTS POLAR VORTEX NORTHEAST OF
REGION TO START WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW OFFERING A FEW
PACKETS OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY AND AGAIN LATER IN THE
PERIOD. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE A CLOSED H500 LOW DESCENDING
FROM MANITOBA INTO AND THROUGH MINNESOTA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOW
POPS MAINTAINED DURING THAT TIME. AT THE SURFACE...A FRESH ARCTIC
HIGH SCHEDULED TO MOVE IN LATER SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY...CHOPPED A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF SUNDAY MORNING
LOWS...COULD BE MORE WITH A MORE RAPID CLEARING. PATTERN SHIFT TO
MORE ZONAL EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD "WARM" TEMPS TO PLUS 10 OR A
LITTLE MORE BY THEN...STILL ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE HAVE
BEEN SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS REPORTED AROUND 500 FT AT SOME
SITES...BUT THINK THERE MAY BE SOME FALSE REPORTS. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN
TO THE SOUTH BY EVENING. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TOWARDS THE
END OF THE PERIOD BUT AT THIS POINT THINK THAT CIGS WILL STAY IN
THE 7000-10000 FT RANGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...WJB/DK
AVIATION...JR