925
FXUS63 KFGF 162344
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
644 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and storm chances return Thursday night into Friday,
  however the next threat for strong to severe storms is not
  expected until Sunday into Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 644 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

A quiet evening here, with clouds pushing off to the east. Wind
gusts have already dropped off, with temperatures in the low to
mid 60s. This is now the 2nd day in a row with a high
temperature in the 60s here at the WFO. While that seems chilly
for July, we average 2 days each July with a high in the 60s, so
its not all that uncommon. Forecast wise just updated winds and
sky, with the rest of the forecast on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...Synopsis...

High pressure and a cooler air mass will be in place across the
region into Thursday allowing for mainly dry conditions and
clearing skies. As the area of high pressure moves off to the
east a more zonal flow pattern sets up into Friday with an
embedded shortwave trough moving through the region. This wave
could spread chances for showers and storms across the area late
Thursday night into Friday as WAA sets up across the northern
Plains. Instability will be somewhat limited around 1000 J/kg and
with stronger instability situated further south of the
forecast area, with ok deep layer shear so a stronger storm or
two may be possible. However widespread strong to severe storms
is not anticipated Friday.

A larger trough then begins to develop into the Pacific
NW/Canadian Rockies by late in the weekend with upper level
ridging into the central/eastern US allowing for more of a
southwest flow pattern across the northern Plains into Sunday,
with the troughing becoming elongated into central Canada toward
early next week allowing the southwest flow pattern to continue
across the region. This will allow for a warmer, more active
pattern to set up across the area for the latter portion of the
weekend and into next week. An initial shortwave will lift
northward through the region Sunday into Sunday night, with a
secondary wave moving through the area again Monday, with
additional energy lifting out of the base of the upper level
trough through mid-week. More widespread storm chances will
return to the area with these two initial waves lifting through
the region Sunday into Monday with increasing instability and
deep layer shear. ML progs indicate heightened probabilities for
severe weather across much of ND and the FGF forecast area from
Sunday through Tuesday at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 644 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

VFR throughout the TAF period, with light winds. Winds have
already lost their gusts this evening, with the expectation that
they will go light and variable after dark. Winds do not pick
up much for Thursday, but should maintain a southerly direction.
A little cumulus may form in the afternoon, but even if it does,
bases will be in the 070 to 100 range, and its unlikely they
form a ceiling, so VFR will prevail.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rafferty
DISCUSSION...MJB
AVIATION...Rafferty