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000
FXUS63 KFGF 250859
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
359 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

Issued at 342 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

The first challenge for today will be timing the final wave of
precipitation swinging around the back side of an upper low progged
to pass through the region. Short term/hi-res models are doing a
decent job capturing the current precipitation picture although
maybe a bit overdone in intensity. They are in good agreement with
precipitation moving into the Devils Lake basin around 10z and
slowly lifting north and east throughout the day. Therefore,
continued with the highest PoPs across the northern third of the
forecast area with decreasing chances further south.

Additionally, surface low pressure centered across southern Manitoba
will pull a weak cold front across the area today. Winds will switch
around to the northwest this morning/early afternoon as the surface
low moves off to the east. With high pressure then building into the
High Plains, a fairly tight pressure gradient will set up across the
area. Model soundings depict decent mixing throughout the afternoon
with 925 mb winds approaching 40 kts across the Devils Lake basin.
The majority of guidance continues to keep surface winds just below
advisory criteria so will forgo any headlines and let the day shift
reassess if observations start picking up earlier/higher than
forecast.

The breezy northwesterly flow will keep high temperatures quite a
bit cooler than Saturday with readings generally in the upper 50s
and low 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

Issued at 342 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

Monday through Tuesday night...As the upper low pulls away from
the area Sunday night, surface high pressure will develop across
the central CONUS with the main ridge axis expected to slowly move
across the area. Some lingering precipitation chances will persist
through early Monday across the far east before dry conditions
return and last through midweek. Plenty of sunshine will allow
high temperatures to gradually warm back to above normal values in
the upper 60s and low 70s. Winds should stay up enough under
mostly clear skies to keep low temperatures in the 40s, except
for Monday night which will see the lightest winds and
temperatures possibly dropping into the upper 30s.

Wednesday through Saturday...Upper level pattern is mildly
progressive through the period. Long wave ridge over the northern
Rockies will shift to the Great Lakes/southeast Canada by the end
of the period. Long wave trough over the eastern Pacific will
shift to the west coast.

The ECMWF was farther north and a little slower than the GFS. Both
the ECMWF and the GFS were trending slower over the last couple
model runs. Will blend the models. No significant weather system
expected through the period. Perhaps a short wave may move through
by next Sun.

Little change to high temperatures for Wed-Sat from yesterdays
forecast package.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)

Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

A few sites are VFR, but most are IFR with some scattered showers
in the eastern forecast area. There should be a bit of a break and
a brief return to VFR as an area of clearing from the KDVL area
makes its way east. Ceilings will return to MVFR/IFR on the
backside of the system late tonight and into tomorrow. Some
scattered showers will also be possible in the morning west to
afternoon east, so have a VCSH mention. Wind will begin to swing
around to the southwest in the next few hours, and should shift to
the northwest tomorrow as a cold front comes through. The winds
could get fairly strong with sustained speeds over 20 kts and
gusts over 30 kts in some areas. Winds will start to settle down
tomorrow evening.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lee
LONG TERM...Lee/Hoppes
AVIATION...JR