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000
FXUS63 KFGF 241732
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1232 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Short wave, MCV, still spinning along the SD/ND border with
persistent convection developing on the South Dakota side.
Expecting the cloud debris to continue to hamper temperatures
across SE ND especially as thicker cloud cover expands/approaches.
So did lower expected highs a bit again. CAMs continue to
generate some convection with the wave so have expanded the
chance for thunderstorms into west central MN through the
evening.


UPDATE Issued at 934 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Upped cloud cover and added some pops across SE ND for the
afternoon into the evening as slow moving convective wave rides
the ND/SD border today. Convective cloud debris, aka cirrus, has
drifted to the Hwy 2 corridor from DVL to GFK. IR imagery is
showing warming tops, decreasing convective activity, with several
CAMs indicating redevelopment of some activity this afternoon and
evening. With the increase in clouds did also lower temps a couple
degrees.

UPDATE Issued at 642 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Monitoring convection over nw-n central SD and whether it will
reach our south this afternoon. Convection currently hugging the
Dakotas border region and CAMs/high res model guidance
initializing too far north with convection and with the GFS
propagating wave se will keep forecast dry across the south this
afternoon but worth monitoring. Adjusted cloud cover across the
south with no other changes.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Surface high pressure will shift east today setting up warm
advection and increasing return flow. With convective temperatures
around 100 there should be plenty of solar which should all
combine to boost temperatures above average from valley west and a
few degrees cooler east of the valley.

Low level boundary associated with next wave will still be over
western North Dakota early this evening reaching the far nw FA
towards midnight. Bulk shear sufficient after midnight with
convective parameters looking marginal and best upper forcing
north of the border. With lack of low level jet and above feel
convection will be spotty and will maintain chance pops overnight.
Respectable amount of CIN to overcome from roughly highway 2
southward so feeling best potential will be across the north.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Severe potential Tuesday will hinge on position of cold front.
Latest model guidance having boundary a little farther east at
prime heating which would limit areal coverage of severe
potential. SPC day 2 svr potential unchanged so maintain current
pops.

Convection Tuesday night mainly will be across the far southern fa
as boundary sags slowly south.

Wednesday looks dry with seasonal temperatures.

Northern stream was located over northern and eastern Canada while
the southern stream was along the International border. Pattern
amplifies a bit through the period. Long wave ridge over the Desert
Southwest retrogrades a bit to the northwest and also builds a low
amplitude ridge over western Canada. Longwave trough over northern
Canada moves north of Hudson Bay and also creates a low amplitude
trough over the eastern US.

The GFS was a faster solution than the ECMWF. Both the ECMWF and the
GFS were trending farther north over the last couple model runs.
Will blend the models.

Little change to high temperatures for Thu and Sat. High temps were
increased one degree for Fri and increased two to four degrees for
Sun from yesterdays forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

VFR conditions with south winds gusting 20 to 25kt today. Evening
and overnight thunder expected to be widely scattered and most
likely north of the DVL...GFK...TVF line or south of FAR. Have
left out of TAFs for now.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...JH/Voelker
AVIATION...JK