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000
FXUS63 KFGF 100422
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1122 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

WE WILL ADD SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE NORTHERN VALLEY...WITH KHCO
DOWN TO AROUND 1SM ALREADY. WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE A BIT
OUTSIDE OF THE VALLEY...BUT SOME AREAS IN THE VALLEY COULD SEE
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW WILL ADD IT TO THE NORTHERN
VALLEY...OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

FOR TONIGHT A SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE FA FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUALLY COOLING COLUMN. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FA. WITH CLOUD COVER AND
ANTICIPATED 10KTS OR SO OF MIXING NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
FOG DEVELOPMENT AS A RESULT OF TODAYS SNOW MELT BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR. CLOUDS AND MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHT.

WEAK COLD ADVECTION DURING THE DAY TOMORROW HOWEVER WITH POTENTIAL
SOLAR...MILD START AND WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD STILL SEE TEMPERATURES
RECOVER TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES.

MID LEVEL WAVE WILL EXIT CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO KANSAS BY TUESDAY
MORNING. BAND OF -SN NORTH OF THE LOW WILL SET UP ACROSS SD.
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH NORTHERN FRINGE OF PCPN SETTING UP NEAR
ND/SD/MN BORDER AREA SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS. CLOUDS WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS THE SOUTH HOWEVER NORTHERN FA WILL SEE
COOLER TEMPERATURES...CLOSER TO AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

SNOW BAND WILL SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH SD DURING THE DAY. AT THE
SAME TIME A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL CROSS FA. MODELS
INDICATING SOME -SN POTENTIAL WITH FEATURE SO INTRODUCED SOME LOW
POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN FA FROM AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. COOL DOWN WILL CONTINUE BUT
NOTHING DRASTIC.

ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION WILL
APPROACH FA WEDNESDAY. DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER IN QUESTION HOWEVER
INCREASING RETURN FLOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER UP TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THE REGION REMAINS ENTRENCHED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SFC A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIVES INTO
SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY 00Z FRI KEEPING THE FA IN WARMER AIR WITH WEST
WINDS. AS THIS LOW TRACKS INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD IT WILL BRING DOWN
COOLER AIR AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO MAINLY THE NORTHEAST FA.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
WITH HIGHS SAT AND SUN MAINLY BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WESTERLY WINDS COULD KEEP IT FROM BEING TOO
WIDESPREAD. OVERALL...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF ANY FOG
AREAS AND WESTERLY WINDS...SHIFTING MORE NW LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK