Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 051844
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST
TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. MID 20S TO LOW 30S ARE FORECAST NORTHEAST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER.

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR UPDATES REQUIRED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 839 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CANCELED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR
NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS SURFACE OBS SHOW ABOVE
ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

COLD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA. STILL A COLD START TO THE MORNING OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH READINGS OF 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO
AND WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30 BELOW. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONTINUES
THROUGH 10 AM FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. A
WARM FRONT OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY BRINGING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING
INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SO BUMPED UP SKY COVER OVER THE
SOUTHWEST A BIT THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

DANGEROUS COLD TRANSITIONS TO MILD TEMPERATURES.

FRIGID TEMPERATURES REMAINED ENTRENCHED ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. HELP IS ON THE WAY
THOUGH. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY PARKED ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD TODAY. BEHIND THE TROUGH
WEST WINDS WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR IN. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER (LOCATIONS WITH MINIMAL TO ZERO SNOWPACK)
WILL SEE A QUICK REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS IN THE
30S AND 40S. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT HISTORY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON FRIDAY WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL BE SCOURED OUT...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN...SEPARATING COLDER AIR NORTHEAST FROM WARMER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVELING
THROUGH A 100KT UPPER LEVEL JET FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL FOR INTERMITTENT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE HAD A
HARD TIME PEGGING ANY SPECIFIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THUS HAVE
KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END. DID BUMP TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE ON
SATURDAY BEHIND THE STRONGEST OF THESE WAVES WHICH MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE WESTERLY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A
FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
MOISTURE.

UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP MID TO LATE WEEK...GFS RETURNS COLD WEATHER TO
THE REGION...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS IF NOT WARMS THE MILD
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TM




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