Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 230851

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
351 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

A breezy start to the day south central with considerable clouds
northwest and central ND. Winds will quickly diminish this
morning with diminishing clouds from west to east by afternoon.

Currently, low pressure is situated over the Red River Valley
with pressure rises behind the low tracking across central ND.
This is producing some gusty winds across central ND Wrap around
moisture in the form of stratus is pushing southward across
western and central ND with any light precipitation remaining over
the Turtle Mountains area in the far north central.

Will likely bump up winds a bit early this morning based on
latest guidance. Have yet to see any fog development on the west
side of the stratus shield. Will remove the mention of fog this
morning unless we see some development before pushing out the new

Surface high pressure tracks east across the forecast area today
so after this morning, expect light winds with a southeast flow
developing in the west by this afternoon. Given our warm start
went a little above guidance for temperatures except for eastern
portions of central ND. The southwest may well escape the low
stratus today. Elsewhere, mostly cloudy this morning with clouds
diminishing from west to east during the day. Highs today ranging
from the mid 40s northeast to mid 50s southwest.

High pressure over the area early tonight slides into Minnesota by
12 UTC Monday. Should have pretty good radiational cooling,
especially east and have lowered lows from given guidance. One
possible fly in the ointment will be the possibility of increasing
low stratus/fog after midnight with increasing low level moisture
in a southeast flow. Models agree on increasing low level moisture
and have increased clouds late tonight but still think there is
enough time to drop down a few degrees below guidance lows.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Continued seasonable to mild through the extended period with a
few chances of showers as shortwave impulses work through a mean
western ridge.

Southeast flow continues on Monday and Monday night with
increasing low level moisture as an upper level ridge tracks
across the northern plains. a Pair of shortwaves moving through
the mean ridge bring a chance of showers to the area Tuesday
through Wednesday. The first tracks across South Dakota but models
are in reasonable agreement in bringing showers into south central
ND perhaps as early as late Monday night but certainly by Tuesday.
The second northern stream wave and its associated surface trough
keeps a southerly fetch of moisture through ND and into southern
Canada, with enough mid level forcing to induce showers northward
through all of central ND. Given guidance has a pretty good handle
on this, but we did pull the chance of showers farther north and
west Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. The best probability for
precipitation with these waves will be over the James River Valley
east into the southern Red River Valley Tuesday afternoon and
evening, with mainly isolated to scattered showers over the
northwest and remainder of the central Tuesday afternoon and
Tuesday night. The southwest is expected to remain mainly dry.

Upper level ridging builds behind these waves Wednesday night and
Thursday. After that there is considerable models differences in
how energy from another eastern Pacific low translates east across
the continental U.S. Will probably see a couple chances of light
precipiation somewhere in the forecast area late week into next
weekend but at this time model differences are great enough that
the blended guidance is not producing any significant
precipitation chances. We still remain seasonable to mild for
temperatures through the extended period.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

A low pressure center/cold front was over the Red River Valley at
3 AM CDT...and will continue moving east this morning. A large
cloud shield of MVFR and occasional IFR stratus behind the cold
front encompassed much of south central Canada...and the leading
edge of this cloud shield has moved through KMOT and KISN. This
band of MVFR stratus will move southeast and should reach KBIS-
KJMS between 09z-12z. Expect stratus to begin dissipating during
the early/mid afternoon hours. At this time it appears that KDIK
may remain VFR through the day - confidence not high enough to
warrant MVFR mention at KDIK. MVFR to IFR vsbys in fog are
possible at KISN on the western edge of the clouds early this

Gusty west/northwest winds behind the front should decrease with
time early this morning - except KJMS may see gusty northwest winds
for much of the nighttime hours early this morning.




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