Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 201311

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
711 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Issued at 711 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Webcams and surface observations show a marked improvement to
visibilities with regards to dense fog. After collaborating with
Glasgow and Grand Forks, the decision was to cancel the Dense Fog
Advisory. Still expect areas of fog through the morning, but not
expecting any further degradation to visibilities. Rest of the
forecast remains on track.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

Issued at 352 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Forecast highlights in the short term period will be morning fog,
chances for light rain or freezing rain, and continued mild

Currently, strong mid level S/WV trough lifting north-northeast
into the Northern Plains. Associated surface trough over the
central Dakotas also lifting north-northeast. Areas of light rain
continue to move north with the mean flow across the region. With
temperatures near freezing and road surface temperatures at or
just below freezing, will maintain a mention for freezing rain in
the forecast this morning until we warm up later. Will keep the
dense fog advisory as is with this forecast issuance. Many
observation points are now greater than 1/2 mile visibility,
however web cams are still showing dense fog so perhaps more of a
patchy scenario versus widespread? Will let the headlines play out
and see where we`re at when the 7AM CST update comes about.

Surface trough moves into Manitoba by 18Z, with the mid level wave
swinging through this afternoon. All precipitation will be north
and east of central ND by noon with a clearing sky from west to
east as a surface ridge develops over the state. A westerly mixing
wind coupled with neutral temperature advection will result in
another mild day.

A more subtle embedded S/WV moves along the International Border
tonight and will bring a chance for some light precipitation to my
northern counties. Thermal profiles suggest either sleet or
light freezing rain.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

Issued at 352 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Active weather pattern will be in place through the long term
period though not seeing any major storm systems for western and
central ND. Temperatures will trend colder later this week.

One more mild day on Tuesday then we will see colder air moving
south into the region from Canada as the upper level jet sags
southward into the southern CONUS. Forecast high temperatures
will trend from the 40s & mid 50s Tuesday to down into the 20s by
Friday and remaining so through next weekend. Embedded waves
moving through the flow aloft will thus likely generate snow
versus rain/freezing precipitation as we have been getting of
late. As we transition to the colder airmass Tuesday into
Wednesday, we will have a chance of accumulating snowfall across
the north of 1-2 inches. Other than that models are not indicating
at this time any other decent accumulating snow systems.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 711 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Light to moderate rain from KBIS to KJMS will continue until mid
to late morning. This will result in mvfr vsbys at KBIS and KJMS,
as an area of moderate rain works its way through. Lifr/ifr cigs
at KMOT will return to vfr by 17z; and expect a return to vfr
cigs/vsbys at KISN/KDIK between 13z and 16z.




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