Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 251524
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1024 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1024 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WITH SOME DECREASING CLOUDS WEST
THIS AFTERNOON. ENOUGH CYCLONIC FLOW THAT WE ARE GETTING A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL ADD A MENTION OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING.
DROPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT ACROSS THE NORTH. OTHERWISE NO BIG
CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE NORTH OUT OF THE
BISMARCK CWA THIS MORNING. BREEZY AND MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO
UPDATES REQUIRED. THE FRESHENED UP PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

MAIN HIGHLIGHT IS THE DWINDLING OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL TODAY AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW EXITS NORTH
DAKOTA.

FOR THE NEAR TERM/MONDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH A 3HR
MAX PRESSURE RISE IN NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN
COMBINATION WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEEN RESULTING IN
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 20KT AND 30KT. EXPECT A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS AND CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. AN 850MB
COLD POCKET OF AIR REMAINS OVERHEAD THROUGH MID AFTERNOON RESULTING
IN ANOTHER DAY OF WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. NORMAL
HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR RANGE BETWEEN 79F AND 82F.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUING TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH RAIN SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING
NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL DIMINISHING AND ENDING BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS SLOWLY LIFTING DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOULD SEE A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY DEVELOPING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
ON THE COOL SIDE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT RECOVERY TO +6C TO +8C BY LATE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES COOLEST IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
CLOSEST TO THE EXITING UPPER LOW AND LINGERING CLOUDS WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL RESIDE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE ADVANCING NORTHEAST
FROM SOUTHEAST IDAHO INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA BY 12Z TUESDAY. MAIN
EFFECT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS
SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FAR
SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

A BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ENTER EASTERN
MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE SHOULD GENERATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-94 TUESDAY. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS THROUGH THE STATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ITS
WAKE.

A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. NEAR NORMAL HIGHS ARE FORECAST BY FRIDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT BY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH WEAK WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW ALOFT GENERATING A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1024 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

A LARGE SWATH OF MVFR CIGS ENCOMPASS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT CIGS TO LIFT BETWEEN 18Z MONDAY AND
00Z TUESDAY INTO THE LOW VFR RANGE. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
TO 25KT MONDAY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO AROUND 15KT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. VFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS
FROM 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE CAUSED OVERLAND
FLOODING...AS WELL AS RISES IN CREEKS...RIVERS...AND STREAMS IN
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA - ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. SIOUX...GRANT...AND WESTERN MORTON COUNTIES SAW
LARGE AREAS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN.

AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF WESTERN MORTON
COUNTY AND PARTS OF NORTHERN GRANT COUNTY. THESE AREAS INCLUDE THE
BIG MUDDY CREEK BETWEEN GLEN ULLIN AND ALMONT...SOUTHWARD TO
HEIL...CARSON...AND LARK. THESE AREAS CONTAIN SMALL CREEKS AND
STREAMS THAT ARE TRIBUTARIES TO THE HEART RIVER.

THE RIVER FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE CANNONBALL
RIVER AT BREIEN AFFECTING MORTON AND SIOUX COUNTIES. THE RIVER
LEVEL FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL
CONTINUE A SLOW FALL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...TWH
HYDROLOGY...TM/KS/JV






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