Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 162343

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
643 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Issued at 635 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

No major changes were needed with this update. Most of the
precipitation has moved out of the southeast part of our forecast
area, with the exception of light shower possible in extreme
eastern Dickey county. Otherwise, just blended the latest
observations with the going forecast.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Small thunderstorm chances and minimal fire weather concerns
highlight the short term period.

Low pressure over the eastern Dakotas will move slowly east
tonight. clouds over eastern ND will give way to clearing skies as
high pressure builds over the region tonight. With light winds and
mostly clear skies, we lowered forecast minimum temperatures from
given guidance. With drier air working in, the threat of fog
appears less than the past couple of days. The exception being
eastern portions of central ND, from the Turtle Mountains south
through the James River Valley. Previous shift added a mention of
fog and see no reason to deviate. We did extend the mention of
patchy fog back a little farther west, to the Missouri River
Valley given the recent rainfall and expected light winds and
clear skies.

After a cool start, we are expected to warm into the 80s across
most of the forecast area, ahead of a shortwave trough and
associated weak surface cold front dropping down a building
western North America ridge. With warm surface temperatures, we
should become slightly unstable ahead of the boundary. Have
maintained our small chance of pops across the west. The severe
potential looks to be low at this time, but with an inverted V
type sounding, we could get some gusty winds with any storms that
do develop. Behind the front we could see a couple hours of gusty
northwest winds, with dropping humidities to around 15 to 20
percent. With our recent rains, and only a small timeframe of
strong winds and low humidities, concerns remain low.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Warmer conditions are still in store over the upcoming weekend.

Min RH values will dip into the low 20s again Friday and Saturday
across southwest North Dakota. Warm and breezy conditions
Saturday may lead to elevated fire danger across the far southwest
North Dakota where less than an inch of rain has fallen recently.
However, fire weather managers have noted a greenup over the far
southwest, although a few dry spots remain, specifically around
the National Park.

Another weak wave may produce scattered showers and storms Sunday
night through Monday evening. Deterministic models are in
reasonable agreement in upper level ridging pushing into the
northern plains Tuesday and Wednesday signifying mainly dry


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

For most of the 00z TAF forecast period, winds will be calm,
ceilings will be high, and weather will be generally dry. However,
at the very end of the period a warm front and surface pressure
trough will enter western North Dakota, bringing chances of widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms. In the 20 to 23 UTC time
frame on Thursday, the most likely terminals to be effected by
showers and storms will be KDIK and KMOT. KISN may also have a
chance of storms, but confidence is not as high at this time. Also
of note is the chance of patchy fog overnight tonight across KBIS
and KJMS. However, model uncertainty is high regarding fog at this
time, so elected to keep it out of the current forecast. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are expected throughout the period.




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