Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 280534
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1234 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

SURFACE LOW WAS AT THE NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA/SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO
BORDER...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING WESTWARD TO NEAR GRAND FORKS TO
NEAR WILLISTON. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS WITH HIGHER CHANCES IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
EARLY THIS MORNING AND SLIGHT CHANCES NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST.
LATEST MODELS INDICATE THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION
DECREASING/DISSIPATING WITH TIME THIS MORNING. LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CURRENTLY OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR BY
DAYBREAK. AS THIS OCCURS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE. WINDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE
STATE CONTINUE TO BE THE STRONGEST AT AROUND 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 MPH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY WITH TIME
THIS MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1002 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TEMPERATURES AND POPS OTHERWISE
NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT...UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. STILL A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. PRESSURE RISES OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY WINDS ARE RIGHT AT
THE LOW END OF ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE SOUTHWEST. WILL TAKE A
LOOK AT THE NEXT HOUR OBSERVATIONS BEFORE A FINAL DECISION...BUT
COULD SEE EXTENDING THE ADVISORY A FEW MORE HOURS. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE EARLY EVENING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

SNOWFALL POTENTIAL AND WINDS HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 85 FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON....WHICH HAS BEEN DEPICTED
WELL BY THE 12 UTC HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE AND THE LATEST HRRR
ITERATIONS THROUGH ITS 18 UTC RUN. AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO
ADVECT IN FROM SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT...EXPECT
RAIN TO CHANGE OVER TO NEARLY ALL SNOW AS THE WRAP AROUND
PRECIPITATION FIELD PROPAGATES EAST. OVERALL...THE MODEL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN WAY OVER DONE...WHILE THEIR PRECIPITATION TYPE
FORECASTS HAVE DONE WELL. THUS...NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS
OTHER THAN A DUSTING POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDEST. IN REGARDS TO WINDS...THE 19 UTC RAP
0.5 KM WINDS INCREASE TO 40-45 KTS SOUTHWEST THROUGH 00-03 UTC
AHEAD OF A 3-4MB/3 HOUR PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE. THUS...WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WITH AN
EXTENSION IN TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY POSSIBLE PAST 00 UTC.
PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BETWEEN 09-12 UTC
TUESDAY...WITH A COOL AND BREEZY DAY EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

A PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH TWO SYSTEMS DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL BE A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT SYSTEM
SLIDING THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THE SECOND WILL
ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IN BETWEEN WILL BE A DRY PERIOD
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WEATHER
IMPACTS UNDER THIS PATTERN IS FOR A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY FRIDAY IN
THE WEST...AND THEN INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY.

AHEAD OF THE FIRST SYSTEM...WARM AIR ADVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT TRANSLATES
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT
PROPAGATES THROUGH. ISENTROPIC LIFT PER THE 295K PRESSURE SURFACE
SHOWS ENOUGH UPWARD GLIDE AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHC OF
RAIN/NOW WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WARM BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR A SLIGHT
CHC OF RAIN IN THE SAME LOCATIONS MENTIONED ABOVE. A COLD FRONT THEN
SHIFTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH ANOTHER BRIEF COOL DOWN
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. THEREAFTER EXPECT A THREE DAY STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND.
DURING THIS PERIOD...A TRANSITORY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES
THURSDAY...SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY...AND
THEN SHIFTS EAST ON SATURDAY. THE WARMEST POCKET OF AIR WILL ARRIVE
SATURDAY AS HIGHS RISE INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS FRIDAY IN
THE WEST WILL SHIFT INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS OF 30KT TO 35KT ARE BEING ADVERTISED ON THE GFS AND TO
SOME EXTENT THE ECMWF WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIND
ADVISORY. THIS WILL NEED MONITORING AS WE GET CLOSER. OTHERWISE...A
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ALONG WITH BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN PICK UP AGAIN TUESDAY...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS ON
MONDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS BECOMING IFR EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
CEILINGS THEN LIFTING TO MVFR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY
VFR IN THE WEST LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JV






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