Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 221725
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1225 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Only minor changes blending current observations with forecast
conditions. Wind advisory on track for this afternoon. Will be
checking latest model runs to determine whether the wind advisory
might need to be extended through the late evening hours.

UPDATE Issued at 947 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

This updated will focus on winds. Added another row of counties to
the wind advisory, south of the current advisory, to include Lake
Sakakawea, some of the higher elevations of western ND south of the
Missouri River, and a couple more counties in the Coteau area north
of I-94. Forecast soundings indicated a good mix-out to mid-levels
with gust potentials over 40 mph and sustained winds at 30 mph or
higher.

UPDATE Issued at 642 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Only a few minor changes with pops to account for latest
radar/surface ob trends for the isolated/scattered light showers
currently moving through central ND. Otherwise, blended latest
obs into the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

The main focus for today is strong winds.

Very strong cold air advection along with deep mixing will lead to
sustained winds around 30 mph today with gusts around 45 mph. The
latest short-term models also bring some light rain showers with
the cold air advection. These showers could further aid in the
downward momentum transfer and increase wind speeds. At this time
it appears the northern two tiers of counties will see the
strongest and most prolonged winds. Therefore, we have issued a
Wind Advisory for these locations for this afternoon and early
evening.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Much cooler weather is still expected Friday and Saturday

Highs will likely struggle to get out of the 60s and overnight
lows will be in the 40s this weekend. Precipitation looks minimal
this weekend as models continue to dry things out.

A warming trend is still on track next week as flow aloft begins
to return to a more zonal and progressive nature.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

VFR expected through the day, then MVFR cigs moving south out of
Canada behind another cold front. MVFR cigs to affect KMOT and KISN
by around 01z/03z through around 09z/12z. MVFR to affect KDIK/KBIS
aft 06z until around 11z/13Z. Strong northwest winds will continue
this afternoon and evening, then pick back up again aft 12 Friday
morning. Strongest winds should be this afternoon and evening at 20-
30 knots with gusts 35-40 knots.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV


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