Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 171400
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
900 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL BRINGING LOW
CLOUDS AND SOME FOG TO ROLETTE COUNTY. ADDED CLOUDS...SOME FOG
FOR THE MORNING HERE. ALSO TRIMMED HIGHS ABOUT 5 DEGREES THERE AS
THE STRATUS SHOULD PERSIST FOR AWHILE THEN BREAK UP/ERODE IN THE
AFTERNOON HEATING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...SO WILL ADDRESS THAT IN
MORNING UPDATE. OTHER THAN ADJUSTING CLOUDS A BIT TOWARDS CURRENT
TRENDS...REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE TEMPS AND CLOUDS AS WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT BRUSHES EASTERN AREAS TODAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT IN DROPPING THIS FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN
PART OF THE STATE THIS MORNING. AS OF 06Z THE FRONT WAS STILL
NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH SOME ASSOCIATED HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TODAY MAINLY
FROM NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH EAST CENTRAL AREAS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 60S. WARMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEST WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRONT. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

ON THURSDAY...QUIET WEATHER WILL START OUT THE DAY AS RIDGE AXIS
PASSES OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS LEE
SIDE TROF DEEPENS WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING WHICH WILL
ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. INSTABILITY WILL
THEREFORE INCREASE THOUGH PROBLEM WITH INITIATING CONVECTION WILL
BE STRONG CAP IN PLACE. BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...RIDGE
WILL HAVE PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST WITH UPPER FLOW SHIFTING
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROF WHILE SURFACE LOW
CLOSES OFF OVER SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND PUSHES EAST BRINGING
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA. WITH THIS PUSHING IN COMBINED
WITH CAP WEAKENING...EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE EXPECTED INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH 35-40 KT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR...SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING
UPDRAFTS.

UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY...WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. RIDGE WILL THEN SLOWLY WORK EASTERLY BRINGING
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 854 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

WATCHING KMOT FOR POSSIBLE STRATUS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHEAST
AS THE SHALLOW COOL AIR SLIPS INTO THE REGION BEHIND A BACK DOOR
FRONT. FOR NOW BELIEVE THE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION.
OTHERWISE VFR AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA






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