Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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392
FXUS63 KBIS 061005
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
405 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR WESTERN AND MOST OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND A BLIZZARD WARNING FROM NEAR THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO THE UPPER JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS OUR NEXT POTENT SHORTWAVE
LOCATED NEAR OMAK WASHINGTON WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF IT INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THAT WILL BE THE THEME FOR THE MORNING
HOURS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN A TRANSITION TO COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AROUND 21Z WEST AND INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA 00Z-06Z SUNDAY. LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS PER NAM/GFS SHOW
WARNING LEVEL WINDS BEING DELAYED ACROSS BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN
UNTIL 12Z SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THIS IS WHEN THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES OF 8 TO 8.5 C/KM AND STRONGEST
ISALLOBARIC FORCING EMERGES. WILL LIKELY SEE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
DEVELOP AFTER 06Z SUNDAY DUE TO THE INITIAL SURGE OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION/ISALLOBARIC FORCING COMING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
MADE MINOR TIMING ADJUSTMENTS ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA BASED UPON THE SAME LOGIC AS ABOVE. ESSENTIALLY BEGAN THE
HIGH WIND WARNING EARLIER IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH THIS
AREA FIRST IN LINE TO FEEL THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES AND
STRONGEST WINDS. HAVE UPGRADED THE BLIZZARD WATCH TO A BLIZZARD
WARNING FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS/AND VICINITY SOUTH INTO THE
UPPER JAMES RIVER VALLEY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW WITH LOCALIZED 4 TO 6 INCHES IN THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS. THE BAGGALEY SNOW MODEL HINTS AT A BLIZZARD AND FELT
WITH FALLING SNOW INTERACTING WITH VERY STRONG WINDS...VISIBILITIES
WILL BE NEAR ZERO.

FOR TODAY PRIOR TO THE MAIN EVENT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM WITH
40S...AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST TO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL.
VERTICAL MOTION INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...THUS MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ENTERS THE FAR NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SPREADING SOUTH SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL WILL SEE LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS SYSTEM...JUST THE STRONG WINDS. WHEREAS NORTH AND EAST
WILL EXPERIENCE THE STRONG WINDS AND SNOW. THE HIGH WIND WARNING
TRUMPS THE MENTION OF LOWER VISIBILITIES AT TIMES IN AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW FOR THOSE AREAS JUST OUTSIDE THE BLIZZARD WARNING...AND
WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINING ON HOW LOW VISIBILITIES WILL BE
AND FOR WHAT LENGTH OF TIME...FELT IT WAS BEST TO UPGRADE TO A
HIGH WIND WARNING AS OPPOSED TO A WINTER HEADLINE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

RESIDUAL BLOWING SNOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EAST
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRING WINDS AND LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. BY
MONDAY THE UPPER LOW EXITING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DEVELOP
INTO A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SOUTH TO THE GULF
COAST WITH A LARGE H500 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND CANADA.
THIS LEAVES A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WHICH WILL PRETTY MUCH DEFINE THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MILD AIR
SOUTHWEST AND COLD TEMPERATURES EAST. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
SEVERAL PERTEBATIONS WILL RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
DURING THE WEEK BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR MOST OF THIS TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH KISN/KMOT
WILL BE ON THE FRINGES OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SUNDAY.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AT THE TERMINALS. SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 40KT SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING NORTHWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCTION IN VSBY
POSSIBLE FOR KMOT AND KJMS 06Z-12Z SUNDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING TO 6 AM
CST /5 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR NDZ003-011-012-019>022-034-042-045.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY TO 9 PM CST /8
PM MST/ SUNDAY FOR NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-
043-044.

BLIZZARD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
NDZ004-005-013-023-025.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
NDZ035>037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...KS



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