Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 290830
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
330 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION
WHILE A STRONG SURFACE LOW WAS OVER COLORADO. THIS WAS KEEPING A
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OF AIR AT THE SURFACE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
UPSLOPE FLOW WAS PROMOTING STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REGENERATING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 BETWEEN
BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN...AND EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
APPARENTLY THE VERY WEAK TAIL END OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT
SHOWERS. THUS HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THERE UNTIL
DAYBREAK.

MEANWHILE...THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST CONTINUED MOVING
NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WYOMING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING MAINLY OVER THE BLACK
HILLS...BUT RECENT CONVECTION IS EVIDENT ON RADARS IN THE PLAINS
EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE LOW ROUNDS ITS BASE AND
LEADS THE LOW AS IT LIFTS QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...PLENTY OF LEADING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PRECEDES THE MAIN LOW AND WILL PROVIDE GOOD
INSTABILITY - ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND EASTERN
MONTANA/WYOMING - TODAY AND TONIGHT.

BEST CHANCES TODAY FOR SHOWERS IS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
STATE. TONIGHT AS THE MAIN LOW AND STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS IS OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
WARRANT MENTIONING THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS INDICATING ELEVATED CAPE
BEGINNING THIS EVENING...AND STORM PREDICTION CENTER KEEPS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA IN THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A GOOD SHOT AT WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS
OF 0.75 TO 1.50 OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA (SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER AND ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 8 -
HALLIDAY/RICHARDTON/LEMMON SD LINE) FROM TODAY THROUGH DAYBREAK
TUESDAY MORNING.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A RECOVERY TODAY WITH
THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS TODAY MAINLY 50 TO 60. LOWS
TONIGHT 40 TO 50.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A POTENT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OVER THE DAKOTAS
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...CONTINUED TO PAINT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. ALSO CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE COLD CORE OF THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE STATE. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. THE STRONGEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE. THEREFORE...INDICATED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH
WEDNESDAY.

A THIRD SHORTWAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT IS THEN
PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE STATE ON THURSDAY...LEADING TO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS NORTH CENTRAL.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO A DRY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD ONLY
ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
LCL LIFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AROUND MID-DAY MONDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO
MVFR OVER MOST LOCATIONS. CHANCES OF SHOWERS INCREASE DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY AFFECTING
KDIK/KISN.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...JV



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