Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 262341
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
641 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

OCCLUDED FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL BUT FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT A GENERAL WEST
FLOW TONIGHT WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. INCREASING CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES MOVE INTO THE WEST ON MONDAY. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. UPDATED TEXT
PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

STRONG WINDS ON SUNDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

AS OF 2000 UTC...AN OCCLUDED FRONT HAS JUST CLEARED HIGHWAY 83 AND
WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THE COLDER AIRMASS RESIDES ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA BEHIND
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST...ARRIVING
AROUND 12 UTC ACROSS THE WEST...AND OVERTAKING THE CENTRAL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN COLD
AIR ADVECTION WITH 40-50 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SUPPORTS ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS. THUS
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FROM 16-01 UTC FOR THE SOUTHWEST. IN
REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION...RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH LIGHT SNOW NEAR 00 UTC ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHWEST AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

ACTIVE AND COOLER WEATHER PATTERN AT THE ONSET OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...THEN TRENDING DRY AFTER MID WEEK ALONG WITH A MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION CONTINUE/INCREASE INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS
FORCING AND MOISTURE RAMP UP WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST
INTO THE PLAINS. STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY WILL RESULT IN CAA MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIGHT RAIN MIXING WITH OR BECOMING ALL SNOW
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...A FEW TENTHS...FOR THOSE
LOCATIONS THAT SEE A LONGER DURATION/INTENSITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY IMPACTS SO WILL NOT MENTION
IN THE HWO WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MODERATE A BIT MID WEEK...THEN DROP AGAIN FOR
THURSDAY BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT. AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER
PARTS OF THIS COMING WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A LARGE
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES THURSDAY
NIGHT THEN PUSHING EAST INTO THE PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF MILD TEMPERATURES. IT APPEARS THE WARM FRONT
WILL NOT PROGRESS EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS UNTIL AFTER FRIDAY...SO
DO EXPECT SEASONAL HIGHS/LOWS FOR HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

WEST FLOW TONIGHT MAINLY 5-10KTS WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUST TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.
LOW VFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS MOVING INTO KISN AROUND 18 UTC AND KDIK
AROUND 21 UTC...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM MDT MONDAY FOR NDZ031>033-040-
041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH






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