Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 262038

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
338 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

After several days of cool air associated with a surface high
pressure area, lee side low pressure will develop in Montana and
pull moisture into the region beginning late tonight but more so
on Tuesday. Superblend dewpoints begin to rise into the 50s to
around 60 across central North Dakota Tuesday afternoon along a
warm frontal boundary. An EML moves over southwest North Dakota
and this should help temperatures rise into the low to mid 90s and
at the same time provide a CAP to convection until late afternoon.
Will hold off on the mention of severe weather until Tuesday
evening when the cold front breaks the CAP.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

The early focus in the long term will be the marginal risk for
severe weather Tuesday night. Large hail and damaging winds appear
to be the main threat as the convection will likely be elevated.
NAM/GFS models do bring in a narrow band of significant CAPE
between 2 and three thousand along the cold front. Believe there
will be a short period of severe weather threat in central North
Dakota in the late afternoon and early evening shifting to the
James River Valley later in the evening. Large hail and damaging
winds appear to be the main threats.

Wednesday will be dry and cooler in a post cold frontal
environment. An upper low over western Canada will swing through
the region Thursday through Saturday bringing its instability
with scattered showers and thunderstorms. However there does not
appear to be good enough moisture to generate widespread rainfall
from these. Sunday and Monday should still see a lingering
influence from cyclonic flow aloft so cannot rule out widely
scattered thunderstorms. Temperatures will be cooling into the
60s and 70s by the end of the week recovering back into the 70s to
lower 80s by Sunday and Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

A large and dry surface high pressure will continue VFR conditions
across the region. Increasing low level winds ahead of low
pressure in Montana will cause some southerly low level wind
shear after 06z.




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