Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 181236
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
636 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH NEAR
WILLISTON/NEWTOWN...MOVING EASTWARD. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS DEPICT
THE VORT/ARC OF THE SHORTWAVE EXTENDING IN A CURVE FROM
NEWTOWN/WILLISTON EAST TOWARDS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...THEN SOUTHEAST
TOWARD WAHPETON. AS THIS AREA OF SNOW CONTINUES NORTHWARD...THE
INTENSITY HAS DIMINISHED FROM MODERATE/HEAVY IN PLACES TO LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES. THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN THE CURRENT FORECAST...AND NO
OTHER STATEMENTS ARE NEEDED TO ADDRESS THIS FEATURE. LOW CLOUDS WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY MINOR
TEMPERATURE TRENDS NEEDED ATTENTION THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH
CENTERED/CIRCULATING NEAR WILLISTON THIS MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE
SLIDING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA.

FOR THE NEAR TERM...A VERY NARROW BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
PER LOCAL RADAR AND WEBCAMS EXTENDS FROM NEWTOWN...EAST INTO VELVA
AND SOUTHEAST TO NEAR MCCLUSKY. THE GFS40 850-700MB 1.5 PVU ATOP A
850MB FRONTOGENESIS AREA OVER WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DEVELOPED
A NARROW MESOSCALE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EARLIER THIS
MORNING. ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH CERTAINLY REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY...AS AN EARLIER REPORT OF A HALF INCH OCCURRED NEAR
HALLIDAY ON HIGHWAY 8. THE BAND WILL LIFT TOWARD THE NORTHERN
BORDER THROUGH 12Z. WILL CONTINUE WITH ISSUING NOWCASTS TO COVER
THIS FEATURE.

FOR TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...REACHING THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER 18Z TODAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST BY 18Z. THE
LATEST RAP13 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF
OMEGA/LIFT IN THE LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYER WITH RESPECT TO ICE
ACROSS KDIK/KBIS/KJMS THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THE
FROST POINT EXCEEDS THE TEMPERATURE...SOME SNOW PRODUCTION WILL
RESULT IN THE SUPERSATURATED ENVIRONMENT FOR A MENTION OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER EXPECT THOSE AMOUNTS TO REMAIN
LIGHT AS THE STRONGEST LIFT REMAINS WELL BELOW THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE AND SUPERSATURATED ENVIRONMENT AREA. AMOUNTS OF A TENTH
OR TWO OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES CAN BE
ANTICIPATED UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAKER LIFT. ALL ACTIVITY WILL
SHIFT EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRANSITORY MID LEVEL RIDGE
CROSSING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT FOR DRY
CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

DRY FRIDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO
EAST. HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTHWEST.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
STATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THE UPPER WAVE...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A WEAK COLD FRONT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN...RAIN...AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES DEPICT WARMING ALOFT AT TIMES THAT WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
FREEZING MARK - BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW FREEZING - WHICH WOULD SUGGEST
RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN - DEPENDING ON THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE. CLOUDS
AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE VARIABLE...WITH ICE CRYSTALS FALLING
FROM MID CLOUDS AT TIMES AND NO MID CLOUDS AT TIMES. THIS SUGGESTS A
MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR LIGHT SNOW. AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT WITH THIS PROGRESSIVE WAVE. LOOKING AT LOWS SATURDAY MORNING
IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S...WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS
SUNDAY...CONTINUES TO DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AND EXPAND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY. A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER WAVE
SUNDAY...THEN IT DEEPENS/STRENGTHENS AS IT REACHES MINNESOTA/IOWA ON
MONDAY...AND TO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND IT WILL BRING MORE CHANCES OF A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...RAIN...AND SNOW TO NORTH DAKOTA.
ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE MIXED WITH
RAIN OR SNOW. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE TEENS AND 20S...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE LARGE
TROUGH BY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING DRY BUT COOLER WEATHER. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S...AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
(CHRISTMAS EVE) LOOK TO BE FROM AROUND ZERO TO 10 ABOVE. HIGHS
CHRISTMAS DAY APPEAR TO BE FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE TODAY AS IT
SLIDES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT LIFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS
IN FOG AT KDIK BEFORE CIGS LIFT TO IFR CIGS BY 15Z. IFR CIGS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT KISN/KBIS THROUGH 18Z-20Z BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT KMOT WITH KJMS DETERIORATING FROM VFR TO MVFR BY 16Z
TODAY. ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AT KDIK/KBIS/KJMS THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS






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