Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 301235
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
635 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 633 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Periods of snow continue over western and central North Dakota as
winter storm continues its gradual wind down. Areas of blowing
snow are still being reported so will leave headlines in tact for
now. Updates have been sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

Issued at 430 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Forecast highlights in the short term period will continue to
focus on the ongoing winter storm.

Currently, stacked low pressure now over southeastern Minnesota.
TROWAL induced band of snow orientated from north to south across
central/portions of western North Dakota mainly between Highway 83
and Highway 85, and I suspect this is where it will remain based
on the TROWAL placement, though it still might meander a bit more
west this morning. With snow ongoing and still some gusty winds
about, will continue with our headlines as is with this forecast
issuance and let the day crew handle the expirations.

While low pressure remains quasi-stationary through today, the
secondary TROWAL starts to wane and begins moving out of the area
wrapping back southeast towards the low. Also, little if any PVA
after this morning. This decrease in forcing will see the areal
coverage and intensity of snow greatly diminishing with time after
12Z and especially this afternoon. In addition, gradient forcing
diminishes through the day and will result in our winds
continuing their weakening trend.

For tonight, dry air aloft advecting into northern and eastern
parts of North Dakota along with a continued saturated boundary
layer and subfreezing temperature profile looks to eliminate ice
nuclei introduction into the super-cooled water layer. Add in some
low level omega/lift and we have the necessary ingredients for
freezing drizzle. Right now kept this confined to my northern and
eastern counties, and will mention in the HWO and SFP.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)

Issued at 430 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Quasi-active weather pattern in place for the long term period,
with the main concern bitter arctic temperatures for early-mid
next week.

Two progressive S/WVs will bring chances for precipitation mainly
in the form of light snow next weekend. Otherwise the remainder of
the work week looks quiet with seasonable temperatures.

Later in the period both the ECMWF and GFS continue to advertise
much colder air surging south-southeast into the Northern Plains
after Monday, our first Arctic plunge of this winter if it holds.
Forecast blender now gives us highs in the teens for next Tuesday
and single digits above for Wednesday, with subzero morning lows.
Wind chills during the night and mornings are forecast as cold as
20 below. Given our deep snowpack now, temperatures may even be
colder than forecast, especially at night. Will continue to
monitor and message accordingly in our products.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 633 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Snow/blowing snow will continue this morning for portions of
western and central North Dakota, including KISN, KMOT, KDIK, and
KBIS. IFR/MVFR visibilities and ceilings are expected through the
AM hours and possibly into this afternoon. Snowfall across KMOT-
KBIS-KDIK is expected to start diminishing in areal coverage and
intensity as the day progresses. KMOT and KJMS may see some
patchy freezing drizzle tonight.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for
NDZ002>005-010>013-018>023-033>036-041-042-044>047-050.

Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for
NDZ001-009-017-031-032-040-043.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JJS



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