Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 251845

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
145 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Issued at 143 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Getting a few lightning strikes across south central north dakota.
Will update for the afternoon east of the missouri river.

UPDATE Issued at 1157 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Main changes to forecast were to refine the chance of rain with
the aid of the radar. Current trends show the precipitation
generally along and east of teh Missouri river. current forecast
looks good.

UPDATE Issued at 841 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

At 8 am CDT a warm frontal boundary extended from low pressure
across western South Dakota through eastern Nebraska. During the
day today a short wave trough will move from Wyoming through the
northern plains. Deterministic models all show increasing chances
for showers across south central and eastern North Dakota. Latest
HRRR runs focus the accumulating rainfall east of the Missouri
river with best chances in the James river valley as the southerly
low level flow increases in response to the approaching short
wave. current forecast looks good.

UPDATE Issued at 631 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

First round of very light showers continues to push east through
south central North Dakota into the James River Valley. Expect
this to continue to slide east with the broader are of
precipitation developing later today. Previous forecast reflected
this well so kept changes to a minimum.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Chances of rain showers highlights the short term forecast. upper level ridge was established over the northern
plains with a shortwave impulse over Wyoming moving northeastward. A
southeasterly level jet was also in place from the central plains
northward through the Dakotas and into Saskatchewan.

As the upper level shortwave approaches, we should see increasing
low and mid level cloud layers forming and streaming
north/northwestward across the region. The upper level shortwave is
forecast to move northeast across SD and the southern ND, reaching MN
late tonight. Plenty of moisture expected from the low level jet
should bring some moderate rainfall to the James Valley, where
chances of rain showers are likely - especially this afternoon and
evening. There may be some very light isolated showers in western ND
today, but the better chances are in the central - with the best
chances farther east in the James Valley.

Temperatures today are expected to be in the 50s in the west, but
only reach into the 40s in the James Valley.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

The main feature in the extended period will be a cold front moving
through the state on Friday.

The upper level ridge builds back up Wednesday/Thursday bringing
dry weather and warmer conditions with highs in the 50s and 60s.
Another shortwave riding the ridge will bring a cold front through
the region Friday with gusty northwest winds of 20 to 30 mph and
cooler conditions, with highs Friday in the 50s, but highs only
in the 40s on Saturday. More upper level shortwave impulses
following the cold front will bring a chance of rain or snow to
mainly western ND Friday night and Saturday morning.

Another upper level longwave trough arrives over the west coast
Saturday/Sunday. Shortwave energy from this trough streams
northeastward across the Rockies as the trough expands and begins
moving east. This will bring another chance of rain to our area
Monday, with a chance of rain/snow Monday night.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

VFR conditions will gradually transition to MVFR in stratus across
central North Dakota later this afternoon. IFR conditions in rain
are likely at KJMS this evening and overnight.




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