Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 190053

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
653 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

Issued at 653 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

Added some low pops for early evening north-central, based on
light rain report at Minot. Otherwise, have not seen much
indication of anything reaching the ground. High res models push
any light precip quickly north during the next few hours.

UPDATE Issued at 435 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

Updated to match current temps across the southwest which are
running warmer than forecast. Latest Hettinger observation came in
at 56 degrees. Otherwise, forecast remains on track.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1258 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

A surface trough is developing across eastern Montana today. This
is leading to warm air and moisture advection across most of
North Dakota. Early tomorrow morning a weak, fast moving upper
level wave will swing through North Dakota. This may spark some
light rain/freezing rain across far north central North Dakota in
the morning. As the main upper level trough moves into the plains
Sunday night more widespread rain is expected.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1258 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

For Sunday night and Monday, an upper level and surface trough
will swing through the Dakotas rather quickly. A winter mix is
possible across northern North Dakota Monday morning with rain
showers likely elsewhere. A chance of thunderstorms in the
southern James River Valley is also possible with this potent
shortwave trough. SPC Day 3 has south central ND and the James
River Valley in a General Thunderstorm Outlook.

Another wave will move through northern North Dakota Tuesday night
through Wednesday.

There is another impressive shortwave Thursday and Friday, but
trends continue to favor a southerly track and keep North Dakota


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 653 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

Continue to have some uncertainty regarding the development of IFR
cigs overnight and early Sunday. Kept the forecast consistent as
the high resolution models continue to show the best chance for
IFR cigs across the north, including KISN and KMOT.




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