Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 201000

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
400 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Main forecast issues are ongoing light, widespread snow, including
winter weather advisory across the 4 southeast counties.
Observations continue to show light snow across much of the
region, with radar trends, including Bowman radar in the southwest
showing an overall decreasing trend. Web cams also do not show
much snow across the advisory area. Based on these trends and
model guidance, have cancelled the advisory. In general,
accumulations have been less than forecast including 0.4 inches of
snow at the office.

Slow moving, longwave upper level trough across the western US and
associated jet streaks moving across the Northern Plains in
southwest flow will slowly shift toward the Great Lakes region.
Expect to see clouds for much of the day with a gradual clearing
trend late, though clouds may hang on later across the north.
Arctic air remains in place as 1040mb surface high slides across
SD overnight. Lowest wind chill values overnight expected to range
from -25F to -30F most locations and as low as -35F across the
southwest. Per coordination with neighboring offices, will hold
off on wind chill advisory for now, given the other advisories
currently in place.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 400 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Models are in decent agreement with maintaining trough over the
western US through the remainder of the work, placing the Northern
Plains in southwest flow aloft. This will support moderating
temperatures and mostly dry weather. The current forecast has a
slight chance of snow over the far southeast on Thursday,
otherwise mainly dry weather is expected. High temperatures are
expected to be in the upper teens to near 20 by Thursday and
Friday, to the upper 20s over the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1219 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Continue to see MVFR conditions at all locations, mainly due to
lower visibility in light snow. Cigs are occasionally approaching
MVFR as well. Expect to see the light snow gradually taper off
from west to east, although lower ceilings may hold on into the
afternoon, especially east.





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