Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 280030
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
630 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION IS BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF OVER EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...SNOW IS STILL BEING REPORTED OVER THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF DIVIDE AND WILLIAMS COUNTIES SO WILL KEEP THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THEM FOR NOW.

AS FAR AS MCKENZIE...DUNN...MERCER...AND OLIVER COUNTIES ARE
CONCERNED...GIVEN THE LINGERING WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE MISSOURI RIVER NORTH OF BISMARCK...WILL KEEP THEM IN AN
ADVISORY FOR THIS UPDATE. IF PRECIPITATION TRENDS CONTINUE
DOWNWARD FOR THOSE COUNTIES...MAY NEED TO CANCEL THE ADVISORY
EARLY FOR THE 10 PM UPDATE. FOR NOW JUST RE-SENT THE WSW TO
FRESHEN IT UP AND REMOVE AFTERNOON WORDING. THE REMAINING PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

SNOW MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET DIMINISHING INTO A NARROW BAND AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION MOVES EAST. ANTICIPATE THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL FOR
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER CONTINUES TO BE LOW...AND MAY ONLY  REACH
CENTRAL MORTON COUNTY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END EARLY THIS
EVENING SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN EAST CENTRAL THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ADDED SEVERAL COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY IN COORDINATION WITH WFO
FARGO-GRAND FORKS. OTHERWISE DIMINISHING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF OF SNOW NORTH AND
EAST CENTRAL BY FRIDAY MORNING. LINGERING LIGHT SNOW NORTH
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

THE MAIN ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM ARE FREEZING RAIN/SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AND VERY COLD AIR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST NORTHEAST OF HIGHWAY 52 THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
FREEZING RAIN...FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. FREEZING RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS A WARM
LAYER ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY
MORNING. THE WARM LAYER ALOFT WILL BE SHOVED SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY. BRIEF PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS UNTIL UPPER LEVEL COLD AIR MOVES IN. AS
THE COLD TAKES HOLD...FREEZING RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW.
WHILE ONLY MINOR AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED...TRAVEL
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.

MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA BY MONDAY MORNING. WIND CHILL VALUES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL APPROACH 30 BELOW ACROSS MOST OF NORTH
DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER KMOT-KJMS THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER KISN-KBIS
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER KISN-KMOT-KJMS
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST OVER KDIK-KBIS
FRIDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
NDZ017>020.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023-025.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TM




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