Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 181702

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1102 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

...updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1130 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

Not much to talk about. IR satellite imagery reveals a clear sky
not only across Kansas but also adjoining states. This dry
airmass, combined with ridging initiating aloft, make for a simple
forecast. Expecting few if any clouds through sunset. Atmosphere
warms significantly, with a net change in 850 mb temperatures of
about +9C over Wednesday. This combined with a downslope SW wind
component will push most locations west of US 283 into the lower
60s this afternoon. Expecting 50s for the eastern zones.

Tonight...Atmosphere continues to warm and 850 mb temperatures
climb overnight, as longwave ridging aloft establishes over SW KS.
As such, temperatures through sunrise Friday will be noticeably
milder compared to recent nights, holding mainly in the 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 145 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

Dry weather will continue to prevail through the long term, and
drought relief prospects are not encouraging. The only chance of
rain/snow we have is during the late Sunday/early Monday
timeframe, and we have high confidence this will be relegated to
the northern zones (probably north of US 50).

Friday...Unseasonably warm temperatures are on the way, as flow
aloft becomes zonal, and lee troughing strengthens along the CO/KS
border. With the continued dry ground, full sun and some downslope
expected, warmed max temps well into the 60s across the western
2/3 of the CWA. Fully expected lower 70s will be realized at some
SW locales. With 850 mb temperatures near 17C, afternoon
temperatures will be about 20 degrees above normal, but expecting
most locations to fall short of record highs (generally in the

Saturday...Continued unseasonably warm, especially south and west
of Dodge City. Here, 850 mb temperatures hold in the 17C range, SE
of a developing surface low in SE Colorado. Again, expecting
widespread 60s for many locations, with 70s south and west of
Dodge City. This may not be warm enough, with ECMWF bias-corrected
guidance suggesting a high near 83 at Elkhart.

Sunday...Strong progressive trough centered on the Four Corners at
6 am will deepen further to a 542 dm closed low over NW Kansas by
6 pm. Expecting at least some scattered light rain showers mainly
north and west of Dodge City Sunday afternoon, quickly
transitioning to snow by sunset. 00z ECMWF depicts strong
deepening of this storm system, forecasting the low to deepen to
near 538 dm just east of Hays midnight Sunday night. Wraparound
snow and blowing snow may be quite impactful for several hours
Sunday night, mainly across Trego/Ellis counties along I-70.
Winter weather advisories will likely be needed for these areas
for a wind blown 1-2 inches of snow. Model continuity in storm
track and speed is good, so don`t foresee many changes as the
storm gets closer. Still 4 days away, and time for things to
change. At this point, snow amounts further south across the
balance of SW KS would look to be restricted to one inch or less.
We will take anything we can get at this point, but once again,
indications are this storm will move too far north and too quickly
to generate the heavy precipitation we need. Model blended pops
favor the northern counties and these were accepted with no
adjustments. If storm track holds, the southern zones, where
drought severity is the worst, may get little to no rain/snow at

Monday...Windy and cooler. Cyclone strengthens further as it
migrates into the Mississippi valley, which will encourage gusty
NW winds to continue most of the day. Cold air advection behind
this system appears negligible, so afternoon temperatures will be
near par for January, in the 40s to near 50.

Tuesday through Thursday...All dry. Another strong cold trough
will sweep through Kansas about Friday January 26th. Another
strong cold front, with at least some light snow potential.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1059 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

Broad westerly downslope flow through the TAF period. Sky will
remain cloud free, other than cirrus, with no surface visibility


DDC  61  25  65  27 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  63  22  68  25 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  61  26  70  31 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  61  23  67  27 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  55  23  60  26 /   0   0   0   0
P28  54  22  58  31 /   0   0   0   0




LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Russell is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.