Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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617
FXUS63 KDDC 271925
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
225 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

...Updated Long Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Convective debris from last night`s thunderstorms is clearing
nicely this afternoon, with E/SE upslope flow expected to
reestablish by this evening. 12z NAM, and several of the CAMs,
develop thunderstorms in NW KS by 7 pm, with a loosely organized
complex then heading south into the northern CWA this evening.
Surface moisture is quite elevated, with a dewpoint of 70 here at
the office as of noon, with a dewpoint of 70 as far west as
Syracuse. MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg widespread across SW KS already as
of noon. So, instability will be more than sufficient to sustain
another storm complex tonight. Easterly surface winds beneath
modest NW flow aloft should allow for some storm rotation, at
least initially. SPC`s broad marginal 5% wind/hail probabilities
through tonight look sufficient for now, but the risk for
marginally severe hail/wind will increase whereever the complex
decides to evolve. Increased thunderstorm coverage in the grids
this evening and tonight, to account for the mesoscale CAM and NAM
solutions. Lows tonight ranging from the mid 60s in Hamilton
county to the lower 70s in Barber county.

Thursday...Overnight convection expected to dissipate by around
sunrise. Most locations dry for most of Thursday again, as
atmosphere again recovers from overnight convective overturning.
Strong 597 dm upper high will remain stationary over the Great
Basin Thursday, allowing NW flow to persist aloft. Synoptic
pattern strongly favors a strong MCS to traverse SW KS, and the
models have been hinting at this for several days now. Shear and
instablity combination will ignite severe thunderstorms across
NW KS by 7 pm Thursday, with a severe MCS expected to track SE
into SW KS Thursday evening. Damaging winds appear likely, and
agree with SPC upgrading to an enhanced severe risk for this
severe wind threat. Outdoor activities Thursday evening will be
impacted by these strong to severe storms, including Dodge City
Days festivities. Will begin social media and DSS coverage of this
expected MCS to begin spreading the word.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Large mesoscale convective system (MCS) expected to be ongoing
across Kansas early Friday morning. Most models including the
12z ECMWF redevelop convection across SW KS Friday afternoon, but
mesoscale details on how outflow boundaries will interact is
unknown. If atmophere can recover by Friday evening, marginally
severe wind/hail is possible, but uncertainty is high. Condident
of cooler temperatures on Friday, with convective debris clouds
and an east component to surface winds holding most locales in the
80s.

Saturday through Monday...The trend will be for afternoons to get
progressively hotter, and for rain chances to dwindle, as high
pressure aloft spreads east into the central plains. Heights and
850 mb temperatures climb daily, with afternoon temperatures
ending up near 100 Monday August 1st.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

VFR this afternoon with scattered clouds and a prevailing SE wind
at 10-15 kts. Scattered thunderstorms expected to increase in
coverage this evening, with 12z NAM/GFS both forecasting a
convective complex near HYS by 03z Thu, and near DDC/GCK by 06z
Thu. Added convective TEMPO groups for GCK/HYS for the 03-07z time
frame, where confidence is highest for convective impacts. Some
of these storms will be strong, producing outflow wind gusts to
near 45 kts and temporary IFR in cigs/heavy rain. Models agree
thunderstorms will end by 12z Thu.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  92  67  86 /  40  20  70  30
GCK  66  92  66  86 /  40  20  70  20
EHA  67  96  66  93 /  20  10  30  20
LBL  69  97  69  92 /  20  10  30  30
HYS  67  89  66  84 /  50  30  60  30
P28  72  95  70  87 /  20  20  60  30

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner



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