Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 251713
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1213 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE AVIATION FORECAST...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A LARGE RIDGE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLEAR SKIES AND WARM
TEMPERATURES.

850MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 22 CELSIUS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND
AFTERNOON MIXING SHOULD BRING HIGHS TO NEAR RECORDS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL
DEEPEN WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE AT 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS UPSLOPE COMPONENT
WILL HOLD HIGHS BACK A BIT FROM YESTERDAYS HIGHS. RECORDS RUN FROM
88 AT DODGE CITY, 91 AT GARDEN CITY, AND 90 AT MEDICINE LODGE.
WILL GO WITH AROUND 85 AT DODGE, TO 86 AT GARDEN, AND 87 AT
MEDICINE LODGE. SOME STRATUS/FOG MAY FORM NEAR MEDICINE LODGE TO
PRATT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 60, BUT HRRR SHOWS
JUST EAST OF THERE.

TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY WITH
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL PUSH THE SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH CLEAR SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE MILD AND RANGE FROM UPPER 40S AROUND GARDEN CITY TO THE MID
50S AT DODGE CITY, AND UPPER 50S AT MEDICINE LODGE. THE COOLER TEMPS
IN THE WEST DUE TO THE LIGHTER WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH DEEP
MIXING OF WARM AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME WESTERLY WITH THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT HELPING WITH THE
WARMING. BY THE FIRST OF THE WEEK A PACIFIC ORIGIN COLD FRONT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS MY CWA AS A STRONG S/WV THROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED, THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE PASSING TROUGH (WITH THE PACIFIC ORIGINS). IF ALL PANS
OUT AS EXPECTED, THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ACCENT WITH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC JET LOCATED SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET AT LEAST VIRGA SHOWERS
OR SPRINKLES. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AND DECREASING CLOUD
COVER, DRYING AIR AND DECREASING WINDS, THE MIN TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY SHOULD FALL BACK TO AT LEAST SEASONAL VALUES.

FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK THERE SHOULD BE A TRANSITORY UPPER
RIDGE MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS SO THAT DRY WEATHER AND
TYPICAL LATE OCTOBER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

YOU CAN EXPECT SEVERE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 25 HOURS AT KDDC AND
KGCK TAF SITES. HARDLY ANY CLOUDS, LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, AND NO VISIBILITY ISSUES. AT THE
KHYS SITE, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  54  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  87  49  86  49 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  87  53  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  88  53  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  84  52  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
P28  87  59  89  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...HUTTON
AVIATION...BURKE



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