Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 211808
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1208 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2015
...updated aviation section...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 213 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2015
Gusty north winds will continue to decrease today as an area of
high pressure at the surface crosses western Kansas. Highs this
afternoon will average around 20 degrees cooler compared to the
highs on Friday. Based on the 950mb to 850mb temperatures at 21z
Saturday from the NAM and 00z Sunday from the NAM and GFS highs
are expected to be around 40 degrees.
Tonight a surface trough of low pressure will begin to develop
along the lee of the Rockies as a northwesterly down slope flow
improves across the eastern Colorado and western Kansas. The
developing southwest to westerly winds in far western Kansas may
limit how cold temperatures will fall tonight so will stay close
to the latest guidance with temperatures bottoming out around 20
west of Dodge City. Winds will be lighter east of Dodge City so
have undercut guidance here, especially in south central Kansas.
Will favor lows in south central Kansas overnight near 20 also.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 213 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2015
Sunday the winds across the central Rockies will begin to slowly
back more to the west northwest which will improve the down slope
flow across western Kansas. 850mb temperatures from the NAM, GFS,
and ECMWF all indicate a nice warm up with 850mb temperature
trends from 00z Sunday to 00z Monday ranging from +7 to +10C.
Given this warm up and a deeper mixed layer late day will continue
to favor highs rebounding back into the 50s. The latest Guidance
with highs in the mid 50s may not be bad.
The warming trend will continue early next week. The mean flow
across the central Rockies will be westerly on Monday and then
become more southwesterly on Tuesday as an upper level low moves
the the coast of British Columbia into the western United States.
Based on the 850mb temperature trends will favor the latest,
warmer, guidance for highs. This would suggest the potential for
highs of 60 to near 65 will be possible across western Kansas on
Monday and Tuesday. At this time however am not completely
convinced of how much temperatures will warm early next week so
trimmed a couple of degrees off these highs, especially east of
highway 283 on Tuesday.
By mid week the GFS and ECMWF both begin to shift the upper low
eastward towards the central Rockies as a series of weaker upper
level disturbances move from the based of the upper low into the
Central and Northern Plains. As this upper level system approaches
from the west mid week a cold front will drop move south across
southwest Kansas late Wednesday night and Thursday. The GFS and
ECMWF both agree that there will be moisture return ahead of the
cold front along with 850mb warm air advection and moisture
convergence. Given this and any subtle wave embedded in the
southwest flow will keep the chance for convection going Wednesday
night but the better opportunity for thunderstorms will be on
Precipitation chances will linger Thursday night into Friday and
given the colder air invading western Kansas late week behind the
cold front the precipitation type Thursday night and Friday
appears to be mainly snow for western Kansas.
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Sunday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2015
Surface high pressure will overspread the southern High Plains
through this evening. As a result, VFR conditions and light west
to northwest winds will persist through the TAF period.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 21 55 27 59 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 22 54 25 58 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 24 55 27 60 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 23 55 26 60 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 21 53 27 59 / 0 0 0 0
P28 21 55 28 59 / 0 0 0 0