Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 200313
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1013 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1012 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR
THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT, OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL BE SEEN ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
ALSO BE SEEN TOMORROW AS LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN
VERY MOIST. HOWEVER, A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AROUND LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT
PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS. THIS WILL SHIFT
EASTERLY WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT. WINDS
FROM THE NORTHEAST ARE ANTICIPATED TOMORROW AS THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD. THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES UP WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40
DEGREES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. CLOUDS WILL ALSO KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
DOWN WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS TO LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE TIMING, EXTENT,
AND QUANTITY OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD BEYOND THURSDAY. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WITH SUBTROPICAL INFLUENCE WILL ONCE AGAIN APPROACH THE
WESTERN PLAINS WITH THE INITIAL EFFECTS FELT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS
A LEAD WAVE FOSTERS PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT FROM EASTERN COLORADO
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...ALONG NEARLY THE SAME ORIENTATION AS
TODAY`S PRECIPITATION EVENT. THE COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE,
SO SEVERE WEATHER RISK OVERNIGHT APPEARS TO BE NON-EXISTENT. THIS
WILL LIFT ON NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, HOWEVER EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND RICH MOISTURE
WILL ACTUALLY HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY COOL WITH TRAJECTORIES
RECIRCULATING THE REMNANT CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS. IN FACT, WE MAY
SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
DRIZZLE MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
THE 50S...AND FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES WILL LIKELY SEE A FURTHER
REDUCTION IN HIGHS.

ON SATURDAY, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH, AND WE WILL
LIKELY SEE EARLY DAY CONVECTION IN THE 850-700MB ZONE OF WARM
ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS. THE ECMWF IS STILL THE MODEL OF CHOICE
GIVEN PAST PERFORMANCE IN THIS REGIME WE HAVE BEEN IN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF KEEPS TEMPERATURES COOL
ON SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH PERHAPS UP TO 70 AT ELKHART. ALL OF
THIS SUGGESTS THAT ANY SURFACE-BASED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
LIMITED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WITH MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY CONFINED
ONCE AGAIN TO PORTIONS OF NORTH/NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT SLOWLY ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE
WEEKEND, SO WE WILL PROBABLY SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ON SUNDAY
ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS WITH YET ANOTHER SMALL SYSTEM SUGGESTED BY THE
ECMWF MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL CROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS BETWEEN 00Z
AND 03Z WEDNESDAY. THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST EARLY TONIGHT AS THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES.
BUFR SOUNDINGS, RAP, AND HRRR WERE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
KEEPING THE LOWER LEVELS SATURATED AND CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 800FT
AGL THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z WEDNESDAY. DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT VISIBILITIES
AS LOW AS ONE MILE WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIME BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z
WEDNESDAY. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
INTO THE 2000 TO 3000FT AGL LEVEL BASE ON THE NAM, ARW, AND NMM.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  42  58  42  63 /  70  10  10  10
GCK  41  57  44  63 /  20  10  10  10
EHA  42  59  45  60 /  10  10  20  40
LBL  42  59  44  64 /  30  10  10  30
HYS  41  56  42  63 /  80  20  10  10
P28  50  62  47  66 /  70  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURGERT


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