Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 192011
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
211 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

...Updated Short term and Long term Discussions...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 158 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Late day convection attempting to develop along a surface cold in
the Texas panhandle at 1 pm. Once these developing clouds/showers move
north of this boundary however they begin to weakening as they
move into a cooler and more stable air mass. At this time do not
think any convection that does develop late today in the Texas
Panhandle will make it to the Oklahoma/Kansas border early evening
like the HRRR suggests. Am currently am leaning towards keeping
all mention of precipitation out of the forecast in far southwest
Kansas early this evening but will continue to monitor things and
adjust as needed.

For the rest of the overnight period...Models still are in
reasonably good agreement with moving an upper level wave across
the Texas Panhandle and southwest Kansas early tonight. As this
upper wave lifts northeast this evening a surface cold front will
begin to move north as a warm front back into southwest Kansas.
Also this evening 850mb warm air advection and moisture advection
will begin to improve north of this boundary, especially in south
central Kansas. This improving moisture and lift north of the
surface boundary along with some mid level instability overnight
could give way to a few showers and as a result will retain
mention of small chances of precipitation this evening east of
highway 183. At this time confidence is not high but the potential
does exist, especially in south central Kansas. Temperatures
profiles in this region early tonight also support that should
something develop it will mainly be in the form of rain. An
Isolated rumble of thunder also can not be completely ruled out
near the Oklahoma border in south central Kansas.

Once this upper wave passes after midnight the surface boundary
will once again move south as a cold front into the Texas
Panhandle and Oklahoma. Skies will clear from from west to east
late tonight and early Monday as cold air returns behind this cold
front.Despite the clearing skies early Monday the temperatures
will stay on the cool side based on the 900mb to 850mb
temperatures at 21z Tuesday and 00z Wednesday. Based on these
temperatures in the 900mb to 850mb level the highs on Tuesday are
expected to range from the upper 20s along the I-70 corridor to
the lower 40s along the Oklahoma border.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 158 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

An upper level trough will establish itself early in the week
across the western United States and then this upper trough will
move very little through late week. Over the next 5 days several
upper level waves will rotate around this upper level Western
United States trough and as each of these disturbances move from
the base of the upper trough and out into the central plains mid
to late week there will be a slight chance for some light
precipitation across south central and possibly even portions of
southwest Kansas. The chance for precipitation will be improving
late week and over the weekend as models hint at better moisture
and lift across western Kansas. This lift will be occurring north
of a surface boundary that will be located across the Texas
Panhandle and Oklahoma and ahead of the Western United States
upper level trough as it moves east towards the Central Rockies.
This will not only bring some improving chances for precipitation
late week and over the weekend period but also bring some warmer
temperatures back to western Kansas.

For temperatures this week...temperatures are expected to stay on
the cool side given the cooler air that will be filtering into
western Kansas behind the cold front tonight and Monday is
currently forecast to remain in place through at Thursday. Periods
of cloudy skies occurring each day will also be possible as a
series of upper level waves cross the Western High Plains. A
gradual warming trend will begin to occur Friday and continue over
the weekend as a surface warm front lifts north across Kansas.
Highs are expected to rebound from the 30s and 40s on Thursday to
the 50s and 60s on Saturday.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1117 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Model soundings and satellite both indicating a large area of IFR
to MVFR stratus covering western Kansas as of 16z Monday. Guidance
not doing a very good job with these low clouds so will be
following the RAP and NAM models soundings for cloud bases over
the next 24 hours. IFR ceilings are expected to improve into the
MVFR category during the afternoon and there may even be a few
breaks of sun late day around Liberal, Dodge City and Garden City.
After 03z Tuesday the ceilings will once again lower back into the
IFR category for all four taf sites. Model soundings also showing
a 45 to 50 knot low level jet overnight over the cold dome of high
pressure. Although surface winds are expected to range from 10 to
15 knots overnight the winds are expected to rapidly increase in
the 1500 to 2000 ft level to 40 to 50 knots. Low level wind shear
can be expected at all TAF sites overnight.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  26  35  11  32 /  10   0   0  10
GCK  21  32   9  31 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  28  40  13  33 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  34  43  11  33 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  19  27   9  31 /  10  10   0   0
P28  37  41  17  33 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert



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