Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 221728

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1228 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

...Updated aviation section...

Issued at 208 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

An intense upper level trough over the intermountain west will
slowly progress eastward to the western high plains by early
Saturday. A surge of rich low level moisture from south Texas is
expected at the same time as mid level cooling arrives ahead of
the trough by Friday night. The associated surface cold front is
expected to pass through western Kansas by Saturday night or early

After Saturday, the southern part of the trough will
separate from the northern part and possibly even close off over
the southern Rockies and southern high plains. The northern part
of the trough is expected to eject northeastward into southern
Canada. There is a tremendous amount of uncertainty in the
evolution of the closed upper level trough over the southern
Rockies by early to mid next week. The GFS is more progressive and
never closes the trough off while the GEM and ECMWF show a closed
off solution. Regardless of the solutions, relatively high surface
pressures are expected to persist from Sunday into mid next week.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

The lee trough over the western high plains will strengthen today
and tonight as the western upper level system approaches. Low
level moisture will tend to once again become diluted in the
vertical due to strong high plains mixing. This in conjunction
with very warm temperatures at upper levels will result in
minimal surface based CAPE. Surface convergence will be minimal
as well so thunderstorms are not expected. Temperatures ought to
exceed most of the model guidance once again and easily reach
into the mid 90s this afternoon. South winds will persist tonight
with temperatures falling back into the 60s by morning.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

As the aforementioned mid level cooling and rich low level
moisture arrive late Friday afternoon and Friday night, there is a
chance of thunderstorms. Storms will probably be isolated along
the dryline in far western Kansas late Friday afternoon. But it is
possible that thunderstorm development may hold off until after
dark Friday night when strong mid level cooling and rich low level
moisture arrive ahead of the dryline in far western Kansas. These
storms will progress eastward overnight. Some severe weather
can`t be ruled out Friday night; but it is too early to tell if
this will be a significant event. As we progress into fall, strong
instability will be harder and harder to achieve even though
vertical wind shear will be increasing. The fall severe weather
peak pales in comparison to the summer peak. Since severe weather
never falls off completely in the summer, the fall severe season
is not really even seen as a well defined peak in the
climatologies. Temperatures on Friday should again reach into the
lower 90s. Thunderstorms may linger into Saturday and Saturday
night, especially across south central Kansas, but possibly as far
west as Dodge City. Temperatures will be cooler on Saturday given
the increase in clouds and debris from thunderstorms. Sunday will
be even cooler in the wake of the cold front with mainly 70s for
highs. Whichever model solution verifies for next week,
precipitation chances do not look all that good. Temperatures will
continue to be cooler than we have seen of late.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through tomorrow morning with only a
few high clouds present. Winds will generally be form a southerly
direction with gusts at or  above 25 knots in the afternoon.


DDC  94  65  92  65 /  10  10  10  40
GCK  94  65  93  61 /  10  10  10  50
EHA  94  63  91  60 /  10  10  30  40
LBL  94  64  92  64 /  10  10  10  30
HYS  92  67  92  66 /  10  10   0  40
P28  92  66  93  69 /  10   0   0  40


.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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