Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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147
FXUS63 KDDC 011936
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
236 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

...Updated long term section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016

Light to moderate rain showers will continue across the southern
half of the CWA this evening spreading northeastward overnight.
This is due to a weak shortwave moving over the area. Otherwise
expect mostly cloudy skies through tonight. These showers are
expected to diminish by sunrise tomorrow with decreasing
cloudiness throughout the day tomorrow. Winds will generally be
from a northerly direction through tomorrow as a dome of high
pressure sits across the area. Below normal temperatures continue
with lows tonight ranging from the lower 30s across portions of
west central Kansas to lower 40s across portions of south central
Kansas. Highs tomorrow look to reach into the lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016

An upper level lobe of energy will move southward across the
Northern Plains and into the Central Plains Monday night into
Tuesday. The only way this will affect the weather pattern at the
surface is to push the dome of high pressure south into the
Southern Plains. Cloud cover will continue to decrease during this
time frame with winds shifting to more of a northwest direction.
An upper level ridge will then build above the Rockies Tuesday
night through Thursday then shift eastward into the Plains
Thursday night into Friday. No significant weather is expected
during this time frame with mostly clear skies and dry conditions.
Meanwhile, a large upper level low is progged to move into the
Western United States Thursday and Friday then over the Four
Corners this weekend. Mid to upper level cloudiness will increase
as this feature approaches with winds shifting to the south.
Precipitation chances increase across the area this weekend with a
few storms possibly becoming severe Saturday afternoon and again
Sunday afternoon. Confidence is still low on the timing and
position of this system so future runs will be looked at closely.
A warming trend is expected through Friday with highs reaching
into the upper 70s to around 80 degrees by Friday. Lows look to
start out around 40 degrees Monday night then slowly rise into the
low to mid 50s by this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016

MVFR conditions are anticipated this afternoon into tonight as a
weak disturbance moves through the area. They only exception to
this will be at the HYS terminal where VFR conditions will be
possible overnight. A few showers will be possible across the DDC
and GCK terminals this evening but confidence is low and have only
placed VCSH at this time. Winds will generally be from the north
gusting to over 20 knots this afternoon then decrease to below 10
knots this evening into the overnight period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  38  63  41  69 /  30  10  10  10
GCK  38  63  41  69 /  30  10   0   0
EHA  37  61  41  69 /  50  10  10  10
LBL  39  62  41  70 /  50  10  10  10
HYS  39  62  40  70 /  20  10   0   0
P28  42  64  42  72 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42



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