Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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811
FXUS63 KDDC 282238
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
538 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

A nearly stationary upper level low pressure system was located over
the Four Corners Region Sunday afternoon and will slowly progress
to the east Sunday night. 12Z upper air sounding showed abundant
moisture in the mid levels that will support partly cloudy skies
through the night. The primary area of concern will be in the
western counties. Storms will likely initiate tonight along a
boundary in eastern Colorado and move east into Kansas. Moderate
850mb flow of 25-30kts will help maintain a cluster of storms.
Flooding will be a possible concern tonight across the western
counties as thunderstorms move over areas that received 2-3 inches
of rain Saturday night. Widespread severe weather is unlikely with
weak 500mb flow and weak 0-6km shear. Lows tonight will drop into
the low to mid 60s.

Moving into tomorrow, the upper level low will begin dissipating
over western New Mexico.  Any remaining thunderstorms from the night
before should dissipate by around mid morning leaving behind chances
for light stratiform precipitation.  Another chance for
precipitation will be possible tomorrow afternoon across southwest
Kansas mainly west of Highway 283. With PW values above 1.5 inches
and weak upper level forcing, heavy rain will be the largest threat.
Highs tomorrow will climb into the low to mid 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

A wet pattern will continue through Wednesday into Thursday with
chances for rain every day as weak upper level disturbances move
over the Central Plains.  Exact timing and location is uncertain,
but the best chances for heavy rain look to be Tuesday night into
Wednesday as a more robust upper level disturbance moves across
northern Kansas. With weak forcing and low instability the primary
risks will be gusty winds and heavy rain. Conditions will begin to
dry out this weekend as an upper level ridge builds over Kansas.
Highs will be a few degrees below normal through Friday in the mid
80s before warming into the low 90s this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 536 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible around the DDC TAF site
over the next hour which could bring a brief period of MVFR to
IFR conditions. Otherwise expect VFR conditions for a majority of
the night. Scattered showers will be possible towards sunrise
bringing lowered ceilings and visibility. Winds will generally be
from the southeast overnight at less than 10 knots after sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  83  65  84 /  40  40  40  50
GCK  63  82  63  82 /  40  40  40  40
EHA  63  80  62  81 /  30  40  50  40
LBL  65  82  63  82 /  40  50  40  50
HYS  66  83  65  81 /  30  30  40  40
P28  68  87  68  86 /  60  30  30  40

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...White
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...Hovorka_42



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