Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 251930
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
230 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016

Thunderstorm chances pick up Tuesday as short range models indicate
a strong closed off upper level low shifting eastward out of the
Great Basin into the Colorado Rockies tonight, then becoming more
negatively tilted as it moves out across the Front Range Tuesday. As
the system approaches, it will bring about an increasingly divergent
flow aloft across the high plains of western Kansas. Meanwhile, a
surface low will develop early in the day generally across northeast
Colorado with an attendant dryline stretching southeast into
western Kansas. Both will begin to advance eastward Tuesday
afternoon as the closed upper level low moves across the Rockies.
Significant instability will develop ahead of the sharpening
dryline as surface dewpoints climb well into the 60s(F) within a
prevailing southerly flow across eastern and much of central
Kansas. Additionally, a strong +80kt upper level jet is projected
to exit the approaching trough axis, lifting northeast across the
South Plains with a left exit region setting up generally across
central and eastern portions of southwest Kansas Tuesday afternoon
and evening. As a result, strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible late in the day along and ahead of the dryline as low/mid
level lapse rates steepen.

Location of initial thunderstorm development will be dependent on
how far east the dryline advances before convective initiation
occurs, putting the best chance for thunderstorms across central
and south central Kansas. Due to the uncertainty of how far the
dryline advances, portions of eastern southwest Kansas could be
affected. Although large hail and damaging winds will be the
primary threat, model soundings indicate favorable enough shear
to warrant a heightened potential for tornadoes, particularly
further north closer to the vicinity of the warm frontal boundary,
including the I-70 corridor.

Near normal temperatures can be expected tonight as surface high
pressure departing to our east and a developing surface low in
northeast Colorado returns a southerly flow to western Kansas late
tonight. This will draw slightly warmer air northward into south
central and southwest Kansas in the late overnight hours, not to
mention increasing moisture across the region allowing surface
dewpoints to stay in the 40s(F) out by the Colorado border to the
50s(F) in central Kansas. Look for lows down into the 40s(F)
across west central Kansas to the mid and upper 50s(F) in south
central Kansas. A deepening surface low across northeast Colorado
will enhance warm air advection into southwest and central Kansas
Tuesday raising H85 temperatures to near 20C. Highs will reach the
70s(F) in west central Kansas to well above 80F in south central
Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016

Drier conditions are likely Wednesday as an upper level trough of
low pressure lifts slowly northeast into the Upper Midwest while
weak upper level ridging moves east into the Central and Southern
Rockies. Drier air filtering southward into western Kansas along
with a weaker flow aloft will hinder precip chances Wednesday. Dry
conditions will persist through at least late Thursday afternoon
as weak upper level ridging moves east across the Western High
Plains. Precip chances pick up again Thursday night into Friday as
another upper level trough pushes eastward into the Four Corners
Region.

Cooler temperatures are likely Wednesday in wake of a frontal
passage projected across western Kansas Tuesday night. Colder air
will filter southward into western Kansas during the day Wednesday
lowering H85 temperatures below 10C across much of the area. Look
for highs only up into the 60s(F) Wednesday afternoon with a few
lower to mid 70s(F) still possible in south central Kansas.
Similar temperatures are expected Thursday and Friday as a low
level northeast to easterly upslope flow persists through the end
of the week reinforcing the cooler air mass across the high plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through late this
evening. Light northeasterly winds will prevail across southwest
and central Kansas this afternoon as surface high pressure moves
slowly east out of eastern Colorado. Winds will then turn
southeasterly 10 to 20kt this evening as the surface high
shifts further east.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  78  53  80  44 /   0  10  10  10
GCK  76  50  77  42 /   0  10  10  10
EHA  79  50  74  41 /   0   0  10  10
LBL  80  50  79  42 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  76  54  78  48 /  10  20  30  30
P28  80  58  84  53 /   0  10  30  30

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson


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