Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 221224

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
624 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Issued at 624 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Extremely dynamic upper low spinning just east of Hays. Light snow
and blowing snow will continue across the NE zones for the next
several hours, and will leave the winter weather headlines intact
this morning. Near blizzard condtions are still possible along the
I-70 corridor for the next several hours. Expect all falling snow
to end by noon. The upper low has been meandering overnight as it
intensified, but is forecast to get the boot and become much more
progressive this afternoon. As such, SW KS weather will improve
quickly with full sunshine this afternoon.

Primary impact has been, and will be today, the intense NWly
gradient winds on the back side of the cyclone. Peak gust here at
the Dodge City office has been 63 mph, with sustained winds near
40 mph, supporting high wind warning criteria. However, have been
watching all other observations closely, and no others support the
warning issuance. So will opt out of a high wind warning at this
time, and pass along wind threats and gusts on social media. Will
need to watch winds carefully around mid morning; once mixing
commences, a high wind warning may be required.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 115 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Snow and blowing snow conditions will linger across central Kansas
through mid to late morning as the core of the upper level system
across eastern Kansas lifts northeast through the Central Plains,
effectively bringing an end to precip chances across western Kansas
this afternoon through the remainder of the period. Strong northwest
winds will gradually subside through this afternoon and evening as
a deepening surface low shifts east-northeast out of eastern Kansas,
in turn relaxing the pressure gradient across western Kansas. Limited
to elevated fire weather conditions will exist this afternoon due in
part to the gusty northwest winds and lowering relative humidity.

Cold air surging into western Kansas today will result in much
lower high temperatures today. Expect highs only into the 30s(F)
across central Kansas this afternoon, especially with cloud cover
holding on the longest here. Highs in the 40s(F) are more likely
further south and southwest. Look for lows down into the teens(F)
across west central Kansas to the 20s(F) in south central Kansas
under mostly skies with much lighter winds.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 130 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

A much drier pattern will prevail across western Kansas through at
least Thursday as ridging aloft building across the Intermountain
West shifts out into the Central Plains during the week. A west-
northwest downslope flow will help erode the cold air mass across
the Western High Plains Tuesday, allowing H85 temperatures to push
up near to slightly above 0C in the afternoon. Widespread highs in
the 40s(F) can be expected under plenty of sunshine. The gradual
warming trend will continue through Thursday as lee side troughing
develops and strengthens across eastern Colorado in response to
the ridging aloft moving across the Western High Plains. This will
easily push highs well above normal Thursday afternoon.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 525 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Snow and blowing snow will persist across central Kansas through mid
to late morning resulting in IFR cigs/vsbys at KHYS. Otherwise, MVFR
cigs will linger in the vicinity of KDDC and possibly KGCK through
mid morning as low level stratus slowly lifts. VFR conditions will
return to all TAF sites by early to mid afternoon. Northwest winds
20 to 30kt with gusts up to 45kt will persist across western Kansas
through late this morning as a strong surface low shifts slowly east-
northeast across northeast Kansas. Northwest winds will then
gradually subside this afternoon and evening as the surface low
moves further east-northeast across northern Missouri and southern


DDC  43  22  49  21 /  20   0   0   0
GCK  39  20  46  19 /  20   0   0   0
EHA  48  21  48  20 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  50  20  49  19 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  37  20  43  19 /  80   0   0   0
P28  45  24  51  23 /  10   0   0   0


Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for

Winter Storm Warning until noon CST today for KSZ030-031.



LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.