Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 130435
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1135 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015
...Updated for Aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015
This mornings upper air analysis showed a general west-northwest
upper flow pattern over the CONUS. A closed upper low over was
moving into the western Great Lakes while somewhat of a Rex block
pattern existed between the west coast upper ridge and a closed
upper low off the coast of southern California.
At the surface across western Kansas this afternoon, high pressure
along with drier air was pushing into the region. Relative humidity
levels had dropped to around 15 percent. As daytime heating is
nearing the peak hours, low level mixing has increased wind gusts to
near/around 25 mph at times which is causing increased concerns for
For the remainder of this afternoon, winds are not expected to
increase any more than what is currently occurring and should
gradually diminish through the late afternoon hours give that the
surface pressure gradient continues to weaken and forecast winds in
the lower levels are progged to continue to fall off. While we are
close, do not expect Red Flag conditions to be met across central
and southwest Kansas.
The center of the surface high pressure will continue south into the
southern High Plains later tonight while a weak surface low pressure
trough develops from the Dakotas into far southwest Kansas.
Overnight lows may be kind of tricky. Lows could be cooler given
that we have drier air advecting in but winds are expected to take
on a downslope component tonight which could hold temperatures up
somewhat. Have lowered min temperatures a few degrees especially
from Syracuse and Garden City through Hays where lows could dip into
the lower 40s. Elkhart tends to stay warm in this pattern and have
kept lows near 50 at that location.
On Tuesday, the northwest flow aloft pattern continues. The surface
trough is expected to slowly move east across western Kansas.
Another weak frontal boundary could slide into western Kansas late
Tuesday afternoon and evening. Given the dry pattern aloft, no
precipitation or any significant cloudiness is expected.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday NIGHT THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015
Another shortwave trough is expected to drop southeast out of
southern Canada into the Midwest and Great Lakes on Thursday. This
will push another cold front south into Kansas by Thursday
afternoon. The ECMWF continues to show potential for some light
shower and thunderstorm activity over south central Kansas Thursday
evening as the front encounters somewhat better moisture. Not overly
confident that this will happen as the model soundings do not show
much instability in that area but will leave as is for now. Some of
the coolest temperatures so far this fall are expected to round out
the week as cooler air moves in behind the front. Highs will be in
the 60s on Friday and Saturday with lows in the low to mid 40s.
Upper 30s are not out of the question over parts of central and west
central Kansas especially Friday morning.
The upper low off the coast of southern California is progged to
eventually phase with a strong upper trough moving in from the
northeast Pacific by this weekend. This could bring a slight chance
for showers or possibly some thunderstorms by late in the weekend or
early next week.
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Tuesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015
VFR conditions will continue with clear skies. A weak surface
pressure gradient will be across western Kansas with light
southwest downslope winds becoming light north in the evening.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 45 87 46 82 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 42 85 45 81 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 49 85 49 82 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 46 88 48 83 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 42 85 45 79 / 0 0 0 0
P28 44 88 48 84 / 0 0 0 0