Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 192311
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
511 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

WITH LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING, THE STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOW TO
ERODE TODAY. THUS, TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO WARM. LIGHT FOG
HAD PERSISTED ACROSS MY EASTERN COUNTIES OR BASICALLY WHERE THERE
WAS STILL SNOW COVER. THE STRATUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY BUT I HAVE DOUBTS THAT IT WILL
COMPLETELY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST. TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER THETA-E AIR TO THE SOUTH, THERE WILL
LIKELY BE STRATUS AND FOG AGAIN, MUCH LIKE THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE
LOW CLOUDS ARE AND HOW QUICKLY THEY ERODE TOMORROW. THERE SHOULD
BE A BIT MORE MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN OPEN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSITIONING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY GIVING WAY
TO A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH A WEAK FLOW ALOFT A LITTLE LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AVAILABLE, DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. PRECIP CHANCES PICK UP A LITTLE EARLY
MONDAY AS A SERIES OF H5 VORT MAXIMA BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OUT
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE, AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO PUSH INTO WESTERN KANSAS
MONDAY MORNING PROVIDING A POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR PRECIP INITIATION.
ALTHOUGH LIMITED MOISTURE AND A WEAKER FLOW ALOFT WILL LIMIT
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP CHANCES, A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN , ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE SOME PROXIMITY TO A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES MAY BE FELT. DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AS A DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS DRAWS MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
THIS WILL SET UP A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
ENHANCING WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA WITH H85 TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING TO A LITTLE ABOVE 5C ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
ALONG WITH DECREASED CLOUD COVER, LOOK FOR HIGHS UP INTO THE 50S(F)
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY MONDAY EVEN AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WESTERN
KANSAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE DELAYED ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LOWER HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S(F) ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 501 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE SHIFTS TO THE EAST INTO ARKANSAS
TONIGHT, NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW WILL TAKE OVER. A WEAK NORTH TO
SOUTH ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE WASHED OUT TONIGHT,
LEAVING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE COLORADO AND KANSAS BORDER.
THIS MEANS VERY LITTLE WILL CHANGE FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS. PATCHY
FOG WILL LIKELY FORM IN KDDC AND KHYS AFTER 08Z, BUT VSBYS LOWER
THEN 3SM BR ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  26  49  31  52 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  23  52  27  53 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  25  51  27  56 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  25  52  30  54 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  25  51  28  51 /   0   0   0   0
P28  30  52  35  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HUTTON
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...BURKE



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