000
FXUS63 KDDC 232056
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
356 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

THIS MORNING`S UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BETWEEN AN EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WAS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WERE MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AND RESULTED IN SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS EARLIER THIS MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO
NORTHWEST TEXAS BEFORE ANGLING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE
COLORADO FRONT RANGE. MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN HAS BEEN
OCCURRING OVERNIGHT AND TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

WITH A FAIRLY COOL AIRMASS INVADING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, THE
LOWER LEVELS HAVE BECOME FAIRLY STABLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
KANSAS. SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
REDEVELOPED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF
THE PRATT/MEDICINE LODGE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING BUT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES INTO WESTERN KANSAS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. WILL CARRY A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING UP OVERNIGHT. WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY WITH MIST, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TURBULENT
MIXING OVERNIGHT TO KEEP WIDESPREAD FOG FROM BECOMING AN ISSUE. WITH
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER, EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 50S AROUND HAYS TO NEAR 60 AT LIBERAL.

BY FRIDAY MORNING, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BE ONGOING GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OUT OF CENTRAL KANSAS BY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW AND OUT TOWARD THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM SHOWS THE WARM FRONT LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD
THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS WITH A DRYLINE FORMING JUST WEST OF THE
KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER. EXPECT TO SEE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. THE NAM IS SHOWING AROUND
2000 J/KG OF CAPE WITH 40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH WITH LARGE HAIL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

MOISTURE RETURN ALONG WITH 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND I295-I305
ISENTROPIC LIFT CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY NORTH OF
A WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING FROM THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BRIEFLY END EARLY IN
THE DAY BUT BY LATE DAY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND NEAR A DEEPENING
SURFACE LEE TROUGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATED LATE DAY MUCAPES IN
EXCESS OF 2000J/KG. 0-6KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE GREATER THAN 30KTS
SO ROTATING UPDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ANY STORM THAT DOES
DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT IS
STILL SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR FRIDAY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER ALL THE MODELS THIS
MORNING DO AGREE THAT NORTH OF THIS FRONT CLOUDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES CAN ARE EXPECTED. AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE NAM AND GFS
LOCATION OF THIS SURFACE FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
OF THIS WARM FRONT NEAR 90 DEGREES HIGHS WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND PERIOD AS A SERIES OF SUBTLE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATE AROUND THIS SYSTEM. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS ON
SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE/DRYLINE REMAINS IN OR NEAR FAR WESTERN KANSAS AS ANY SUBTLE
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. 850-700MB
TEMPERATURE TRENDS SUGGESTING HIGHS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 90S
BOTH DAYS ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN KANSAS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE EAST. MODELS
THIS MORNING DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST AND AT
THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON WHICH ON WILL BE MORE CORRECT.
AS A RESULT WILL STAY CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE AND CREXTENDFCST_INIT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS AND COULD MIX OUT INTO A BROKEN VF/MVFR CUMULUS DECK
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO LOWER
MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CATEGORIES AFTER 06Z TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT
GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL
MENTION VCTS IN THE TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  77  63  90 /  40  30  30  20
GCK  57  81  63  92 /  40  20  30  30
EHA  58  85  61  92 /  30  30  30  30
LBL  60  83  64  92 /  30  20  30  30
HYS  54  73  62  91 /  40  40  30  20
P28  55  75  65  87 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GERARD
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...GERARD