Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 251107
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
607 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

The main change today was to retard the cloud cover evolution from west
to east. This synoptic low is sure taking its time to leave the region.
Some of the guidance like the NAM and ARW supports this notion with
lingering cloud cover and cooler highs. This is particularly true across
the eastern zones. Have reduced highs here and just lowered values
out west only by a few degrees. Winds today should not be too much
of a problem with northerly to northwesterly winds 10 to 20 mph. By
tonight, the winds should switch light southerly. Overnight lows heading
into Sunday are expected to bottom out to the mid to upper 30s to just
around 40F in some locations. No precipitation is expected within the
short term period and pops will remain at zero percent.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

On Sunday, a synoptic wave will move across Kansas. Most of the precipitation
looks to be tied to warm sector convection across Oklahoma. However...
there could be some precip though lingering north of the warm front.
Therefore, have the highest pops across the southeastern zones. Any
precipitation elsewhere looks to be light as the best lift is not located
in this second region. Wherever the warm front sets up will determine
where the highest highs for Sunday will be located. Have lower 70s
near the Okla border and 60s for the rest of the domain. The best instability
also looks to remain SE/S of the forecast area in terms of severe tstorms.
Beyond this, shortwave ridging will allow for a dry forecast. The next
shot at precipitation does not enter the forecast picture until Tuesday.
Another wave with an open Gulf still spells out the concern for much
needed precip across the forecast district. Severe doesn`t look particularly
high as SW Kan will remain on the cold side. More post frontal precipitation
may linger Wednesday. The EC still shows some impressive QPF amounts.
The model continues to shift the heavy amount axis with each run. However,
the trend of a wetter pattern still prevails. The FB pops and temps
looks reasonable for now in the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

IFR and low MVFR stratus will gradually erode from west to east
this morning. The gusty northwest winds will also be decreasing
early this morning as a surface ridge axis builds into western
Kansas. Given the latest Satellite trends of the western edge of
the low clouds in western Kansas, 10z surface observations, and
the latest HRRR will begin the 12 tafs with VFR conditions at GCK.
VFR conditions should develop in the DDC area between 14z and 16z
Saturday. HYS will be the last with VFR conditions returning
between 16z and 19z Saturday. VFR conditions can then be expected
through the remainder of the day and early tonight. Northwest
winds will be at 10 to 15 knots today and then will begin to
gradually shift to the southeast overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  39  66  40 /   0   0  30  50
GCK  64  39  64  39 /   0   0  30  50
EHA  66  39  64  38 /   0   0  30  20
LBL  65  40  68  40 /   0   0  30  30
HYS  55  37  61  41 /   0   0  30  60
P28  54  40  70  45 /   0   0  40  70

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Burgert



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