Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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661
FXUS63 KDDC 201856
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
156 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY OUT THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STAYS IN PLACE ALLOWING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PERSIST. THERE MAY BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS TOWARDS SUNSET INTO THE EVENING, THEN AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ALSO
INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHICH COULD HINDER THE SUN FROM
PENETRATING TO THE GROUND. A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THEN SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA
TOMORROW. THIS WILL LEAD TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT SHIFTING
TO MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION TOMORROW. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 40
DEGREES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO MID 40S ACROSS THE KS/OK
BORDER. HIGHS TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID
60S. THIS DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER THERE IS AND IF THE SUN
DOES BREAK THROUGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE HIGHER THAN FORECASTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH BY THURSDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOR WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION, WITH AMOUNTS FROM A TENTH TO A HALF INCH COMMON. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM ON FRIDAY, SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY, WITH
COOL HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME LINGERING
RAIN FRIDAY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. BY FRIDAY NIGHT,
THE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL HAVE PROGRESSED INTO
NORTHERN ARIZONA. AS THIS SYSTEM GETS CLOSER, IT IS LIKELY THAT
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, WITH COOL AIR REMAINING OVER WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE ITS CHARACTERISTIC BIAS OF
OVERDEVELOPING THE LEE TROUGH DESPITE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH.
THEREFORE, SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY BE COOL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S, ALONG WITH SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BUT IT
IS LIKELY THAT ANY TORRENTIAL RAINS WOULD BE SOUTH OF KANSAS. FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH GENERAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING APPROACHING
THE CENTRAL PLAINS, CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE.
TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT IN THE ABSENCE OF UPSLOPE
FLOW, WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 70S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, AS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ROCKIES, WE MAY FINALLY SEE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A LEE TROUGH AND ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THAT COULD CAP SOUTHERN
PLAINS CONVECTION ENOUGH TO ALLOW HIGH THETA-E AIR TO SURGE
NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THEREFORE, ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH WARM HIGHS
IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL STRATUS SEEN. A
FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
LEADING TO BRIEF VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE
NORTH AROUND 12 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  42  65  48  60 /   0  10  80  90
GCK  44  63  48  61 /   0  10  80  90
EHA  45  61  48  67 /  10  30  70  70
LBL  45  65  48  64 /   0  20  80  80
HYS  42  63  47  60 /   0  10  60  70
P28  46  66  50  62 /   0  10  80  80

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42



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