Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 242341

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
641 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

A strong upper level low pressure system was over the northeast
Texas Panhandle early this afternoon. This system is nearly
vertically stacked with the surface low and has been moving slowly
southeast this afternoon. Colder air was plunging south across the
western High Plains behind the low. An occluded front associated
with the surface low was pushing south along a Dighton-Garden
City-Hugoton line. Gusty north winds had developed along and west
of the front. Given the slow eastward movement of the upper
system, the strongest north winds had remained west of the
Colorado border this morning. Winds over eastern Colorado have
subsided somewhat to the point where warning criteria winds are no
longer a threat. As a result, the high wind warning that was in
effect for today has been cancelled. Radar mosaic was showing
scattered light showers or sprinkles developing along and
southeast of the front. Instability across this area is fairly
weak with the SPC Mesoanalysis showing SBCAPE values generally
less than 250 j/kg so the threat for thunder should be minimal.
Mesoscale models such as the HRRR, Nested NAM and RAP show the
precipitation developing and gradually shifting eastward through
the rest of this afternoon and evening. Have adjusted the WX/POP
grids with chance/slight chance pops into this evening before
precipitation chances end.

Gusty north winds behind the front will linger into the evening
hours as a tight pressure gradient moves through the area. Winds
will diminish later tonight as the gradient relaxes and ridge of
surface high pressure moves into the far west. Stratus behind the
front will also linger for much of the night but should be clearing
out later tonight as atmospheric subsidence increases.

Saturday is shaping up to be fairly pleasant with temperatures
expected to top out in the 60s. Northwest winds at 10-20 mph in
the morning will diminish during the afternoon as a high pressure
ridge at the surface moves through.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

The 12z GFS and ECMWF models show the next wave to have an impact
on Central Plains weather moving out of the Rockies and into the
central High Plains on Sunday. There will be some moisture return
ahead of this system so the going chance for rainshowers looks
good. The models continue to be in good agreement with the long
advertised upper low pressure system that is progged to dig into
the Intermountain West on Monday into Monday night and then move
out across northwest Texas and Oklahoma through the middle of next
week. While there is some disagreement in where the most
significant rainfall will be with this system, it appears that a
good part of the central High Plains is in for some decent
rainfall that could put a little dent in the drought conditions
and get the spring greenup going in earnest. Temperatures through
the week will be fairly seasonal.

Beyond midweek, the models are in remarkable agreement with another
upper low system digging into the central/southern High Plains by
next weekend. The currently progged track of this system could
also bring some beneficial precipitation to western Kansas but a
little more uncertainty exists given how far out in the extended
period this is.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

As the upper low pulls away through the night, we will continue to
see cold advection and remnant low clouds behind the cyclone,
leading to IFR ceiling around 700 to 1000 feet. The ceiling may
periodically go into MVFR, but the best indication is that ceiling
will predominantly be in the upper IFR cat. In the 09-12z time
frame, ceiling will scatter and we will see VFR conditions
resuming areawide. Winds will remain from the north to northwest
through the period with a gradual decrease in intensity through
the TAF period.


DDC  39  65  40  67 /  40   0   0  30
GCK  33  65  40  63 /  10   0   0  40
EHA  32  67  39  63 /   0   0   0  20
LBL  35  67  40  69 /  10   0   0  30
HYS  38  60  38  62 /  20  10   0  30
P28  43  64  41  73 /  50  10   0  30




LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Umscheid is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.