Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 111611
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1111 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2014

...Update to short term and aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

Tonight:

Tranquil conditions are expected tonight and through the overnight pd.
Any storms will remain well northwest of the forecast area, so pops
will continue at zero percent. Overnight minimums will still be mild
and mainly in the 70s. Southerly winds will continue as well.

Tomorrow:

Another hot day is expected with highs in the mid 90s, which is actually
near climo. There could be some late afternoon and evening convection
along a frontal boundary mainly northwest of a line from Elkhart to
Hays. The 4km NAM is much drier than compared to the operational 12km
NAM, so the trend of reducing pops off to the northwest might be needed
in later forecasts. The WRF cores aren`t that impressive either and
keep activity pretty isolated. Dewpoints are expected to mix out ahead
of the frontal boundary, which in turn could reduce MUCAPE. The EC also
indicates this with fairly low SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. In addition,
bulk shear and upper level shear for storm top ventilation is on the
weak side, so severe weather seems unlikely. Cannot rule out some small
hail and perhaps marginal outflow speeds. Agree with the previous meteorologist
that the NAM is too warm with highs given all the evapotranspiration/moisture fluxes
that is occurring.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

For Saturday, as an upper low over Central Canada begins to move
into the Northern High Plains, a weak surface trough will move into
central Kansas. Some moisture convergence along this trough could
lead to a few thunderstorms mainly from Syracuse to Garden City and
Hays into Saturday night. Highs will be warm and in the mid to upper
90s with lows around 70.

For Sunday into Monday, the upper low continues to build southward
forcing a cold front to move across Kansas and into Oklahoma on
Sunday. There will be only a slight chance for thunderstorms with
the front across western Kansas into Sunday night. Other scattered
thunderstorms will be possible behind the front on Monday with some
upslope flow and good moisture. Highs on Sunday will be not as warm
and around 90, with mid to upper 90s in the Medicine Lodge area.
Highs on Monday will be around 90. Overnight lows will be in the
upper 60s to lower 70s on Sunday night, and low to mid 60s on
Monday night.

A much cooler period begins Tuesday into late next week, as the
aforementioned upper low and trough continues to build deeply
southward into the Great Lakes, adjacent Plains, and eastern U.S.
A large area of cooler surface high pressure will push into the
Central and Southern Plains with highs only in the 70s to around
80, and lows around 60. As surface high pressure moves east on
Wednesday and Thursday, upslope return moisture will develop into
the High Plains with a better chance for thunderstorms especially
over the high terrain of western Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

VFR conditions expected through TAF pd. Southerly winds 15-22 kt
will decrease 10-15 kt towards 00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  96  70  95  70 /   0   0  10  20
GCK  98  69  95  70 /   0   0  20  20
EHA  98  68  95  72 /   0   0  20  20
LBL  97  69  97  73 /   0   0  10  20
HYS  98  71  95  69 /   0   0  30  30
P28  96  72  96  73 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Sugden





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