Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 260919
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
419 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

...Updated long term section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Low stratus or patchy fog will be possible this morning, mainly
across west central and central Kansas. This is due to abundant
moisture being advected northward at the surface with
southeasterly up-slope winds. These clouds should burn off by the
afternoon with winds increasing in speed and shifting to more of a
southerly direction. Another round of severe thunderstorms is
possible late this afternoon into the evening hours east of
highway 83 with the best chance east of highway 283. These storms
form as an upper level low moves into the Four Corners Region with
an associated 80+ knot 250mb jet extending into southwest Kansas.
In addition, an area of surface low pressure will be spinning
across western Kansas with associated warm front extending to the
northeast of the low and a cold front extending to the south of
the low. These features will enhance lift across the area.
Moisture in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also be
abundant with steep lapse rates found as you go up into the mid
parts of the atmosphere. The atmosphere will become very unstable
during peak heating causing CAPE values to exceeding 4000 J/kg
with 0-6 km shear over 30 knots west of highway 83. Any storms
that do develop will have the potential of producing large hail
and damaging winds. Also, a few tornadoes will also be possible
with these storms. Storms chances will then be confined to
northern and central Kansas after midnight with partly cloudy
skies observed elsewhere. As for temperatures, highs today look to
range from the lower 80s across west central Kansas to around 90
degrees along the KS/OK border. Lows tonight are expected to range
from the lower 50s across the KS/CO border to lower 60s across
south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 417 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

The upper level low moves eastward into the Central Rockies and
west central High Plains Friday. At the same time, a surface cold
front will drop into western Kansas shifting winds to more of a
northerly direction. Precipitation chances increase behind this
front, then spread eastward late Friday afternoon into Friday
evening. Otherwise expect increasing cloudiness from west to east
as the day progresses. On Saturday the upper low will move into
the Central Plains with westerly down slope winds improving across
eastern Colorado and far western Kansas. A few lingering showers
will be possible during the early morning hours across central
Kansas, otherwise expect mostly clear skies in the west with
decreasing cloudiness across central Kansas in the afternoon. The
next chance of precipitation looks to be Sunday night into Monday
as low level moisture returns with a trough of low pressure
developing across eastern Colorado. An upper level disturbance
will also slide into the area enhancing lift. Precipitation
chances continue through at least the early part of next week as a
series of disturbances move into the area. Confidence is low on
the timing and location of these disturbances so have stayed
close to the model blend we use for the extended part of the
forecast. As for temperatures, highs Friday look to range from
around 70 degrees across the KS/Co border to lower 80s across
central and south central Kansas. Lows Friday night will generally
range from the upper 40s across the KS/Co border to around 60
degrees across central and south central Kansas. Highs this
weekend into the early part of next week look to reach into the
upper 70s to lower 80s with lows dipping into the mid to upper
50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Low stratus or patchy fog will be possible across the TAF sites
this morning bringing periods of MVFR conditions. Winds this
morning will generally be from the east to southeast at less than
10 knots. These clouds should dissipate by late morning with winds
shifting to more of a southerly direction and increasing to
around 20 knots with higher gusts. Thunderstorms will be possible
late this afternoon into this evening at the DDC and HYS
terminals.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  56  80  54 /  40  10  20  20
GCK  88  53  77  52 /  20  10  30  20
EHA  86  52  76  51 /  10  10  30  10
LBL  89  52  79  53 /  20  10  20  10
HYS  82  58  80  55 /  50  40  40  40
P28  87  63  84  58 /  50  30  30  30

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42


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