Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 020500
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

...Updated Aviation...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1028 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016

Realigned pop/weather/QPF grids for the rest of tonight, to match
radar and HRRR trends. Rain showers will continue south and SE of
Dodge City for the next several hours, with light rainfall
amounts, before ending by sunrise. No other changes.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016

Light to moderate rain showers will continue across the southern
half of the CWA this evening spreading northeastward overnight.
This is due to a weak shortwave moving over the area. Otherwise
expect mostly cloudy skies through tonight. These showers are
expected to diminish by sunrise tomorrow with decreasing
cloudiness throughout the day tomorrow. Winds will generally be
from a northerly direction through tomorrow as a dome of high
pressure sits across the area. Below normal temperatures continue
with lows tonight ranging from the lower 30s across portions of
west central Kansas to lower 40s across portions of south central
Kansas. Highs tomorrow look to reach into the lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016

An upper level lobe of energy will move southward across the
Northern Plains and into the Central Plains Monday night into
Tuesday. The only way this will affect the weather pattern at the
surface is to push the dome of high pressure south into the
Southern Plains. Cloud cover will continue to decrease during this
time frame with winds shifting to more of a northwest direction.
An upper level ridge will then build above the Rockies Tuesday
night through Thursday then shift eastward into the Plains
Thursday night into Friday. No significant weather is expected
during this time frame with mostly clear skies and dry conditions.
Meanwhile, a large upper level low is progged to move into the
Western United States Thursday and Friday then over the Four
Corners this weekend. Mid to upper level cloudiness will increase
as this feature approaches with winds shifting to the south.
Precipitation chances increase across the area this weekend with a
few storms possibly becoming severe Saturday afternoon and again
Sunday afternoon. Confidence is still low on the timing and
position of this system so future runs will be looked at closely.
A warming trend is expected through Friday with highs reaching
into the upper 70s to around 80 degrees by Friday. Lows look to
start out around 40 degrees Monday night then slowly rise into the
low to mid 50s by this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016

Scattered -SHRA near DDC will end over the next few hours. Much
improved flying weather on Monday, with VFR expected. Decreasing
clouds through 12z, followed by only scattered clouds or SKC
Monday afternoon. After 15z Monday, NW surface winds of 10-20 kts,
with winds going light and variable around 00z Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  38  63  41  69 /  30  10  10  10
GCK  38  63  41  69 /  20  10   0   0
EHA  37  61  41  69 /  60  10  10  10
LBL  39  62  41  70 /  60  10  10  10
HYS  39  62  40  70 /  20  10   0   0
P28  42  64  42  72 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Turner



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