Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 020519
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1219 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

AT 00Z TUESDAY A 500MB RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM NEW MEXICO TO
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ONE SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS
LOCATED OVER COLORADO AND WAS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS EVENING
OVER EASTERN COLORADO AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. FURTHER
WEST AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WAS LOCATED ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST. AT THE 700MB LEVEL A +10C TO +13C TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WAS LOCATED BETWEEN DODGE CITY AND DENVER. THE 850MB
TEMPERATURES AT 00Z TUESDAY WERE +18C AT DODGE CITY AND NORTH
PLATTE, +23 AT AMARILLO, AND +24C AT RAPID CITY. A SURFACE
BOUNDARY EARLIER THIS EVENING EXTENDED FROM EASTERN COLORADO TO
THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. AS
THE RIDGE TRANSITIONS THROUGH, AN AXIS OF H5 VORT MAXIMA ARE
PROJECTED TO KICK OUT OF THE ROCKIES THIS EVENING AND PUSHING
FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF KANSAS BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN EXTREMELY WEAK, AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LOWER/MID LEVELS PROVIDING A FAIR
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG OUT
BY THE COLORADO BORDER. ADDITIONALLY, THE SURFACE TROUGH IN PLACE
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WILL PROVIDE A CORRIDOR OF INCREASED
CONVERGENCE. AS LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AS A RESULT OF
DAYTIME HEATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LEE OF THE FRONT RANGE WITH A FEW STORMS
POTENTIALLY DRIFTING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATE THIS
EVENING AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS LOW DUE TO THE LACK OF
STRONG DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT, AMPLE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES COULD HEIGHTEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

A WARMING TREND FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A
PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW DRAWS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO
THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE RAISING SURFACE DEWPOINTS
A BIT. AS A RESULT, LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP ONLY INTO THE 60S(F)
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT. STRENGTHENING
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO WILL ENHANCE THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY WARMING H85 TEMPERATURES EVEN FURTHER WITH
THE LOWER TO MID 20S(C) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE UPPER 20S(C)
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS. LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL
UP INTO THE 80S(F) TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH 90F OR ABOVE POSSIBLE IN
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

THE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS CHANGING TO A MUCH WARMER
SUMMER LIKE PATTERN. THE UPPER RIDGE, ALBEIT LOW AMPLITUDE WILL
BRING FAR WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, AS
WELL AS SUBSIDENCE FOR A WARMER BOUNDARY/NEAR SURFACE LAYER. TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY DO NOT LOOK CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE, ALTHOUGH BETTER
CHANCES ARE PLAUSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS
THE MODELS HINT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS NORTHERN KS INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. A STRONG ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER WITH +13 TO +14 DEGREE C AT THE 700 MB LEVEL SHOULD ACT TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT VERY FAR SOUTH. ADDITIONALLY. A
SURFACE LOW NEAR ELKHART SHOULD PULL DRIER AIR INTO THE EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, LIMITING THE
MOISTURE. THE MODELS FAVOR A SURGE OF PRECIPITABLE  WATER
WESTWARD AGAIN TOWARDS LATE IN THE WEEK, AS A SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES THE SURFACE LOW SOUTHWARD INTO THE PANHANDLES.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS FOR MCS ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP AND BE MAINTAINED HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE HIGHEST
POPS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD RETURN TO THIS TIMEFRAME.

THE WARMEST DAYS AS FAR AS AFTERNOON HIGHS AS WELL AS MILD
OVERNIGHTS FALL IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE
WEAKENS AND A SURFACE FRONT INFLUENCES THE AREA. HOWEVER TEMPS ARE
STILL FORECAST TO BE IN THE 80S FOR HIGHS MOSTLY AND 60S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

ONLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AS IT CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. IF
THE STORMS THAT WERE OCCURRING NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AT 04Z
HOLDS TOGETHER THE ONLY LOCATION THAT MAY HAVE SOME VCTS WILL BE
AROUND HYS TOWARDS DAYBREAK BASED ON WHERE THE BETTER FORCING
AHEAD OF THIS UPPER WAVE WILL BE LOCATED EARLY THIS MORNING. A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT WILL DRAW MORE HUMID
AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS BACK INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS, HOWEVER 00Z
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOWER LEVELS
SATURATING AS PREVIOUS RUNS SUGGESTED. BASED ON THIS AND THE
LATEST HRRR AND RAP THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A CHANCE FOR IFR
CEILINGS AROUND 12Z AT HYS, MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT DDC. ANY LOW
THAT THAT MAY DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL ERODE BY LATE DAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  66  88  68  87 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  65  88  66  85 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  60  91  64  87 /  10   0  10  10
LBL  64  92  67  90 /  10   0  10  10
HYS  68  86  68  84 /  10  10  40  30
P28  68  88  70  87 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURGERT


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