Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 151142
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
642 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2014
...Updated aviation discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014
An upper level shortwave will move down from the Northern Rockies
today into the Central Plains tonight. Mid level clouds will be on
the increase as this feature approaches with mostly cloudy skies
expected tonight. Surface winds will shift from the southwest this
morning to more of a westerly direction by noon. Winds then shift to
the northwest and increase in speed late this afternoon into the
evening as a cold front moves through the area. Windy conditions
continue overnight, especially after 06Z when 850 mb winds increase
to around 50 knots across eastern portions of the CWA. A wind
advisory has been issued from 06-18Z Sunday. Check out the latest
message for more details. A slight chance of rain showers and
isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the KS/OK border late
this afternoon with a chance of rain showers this evening. Rain
chances then end from west to east with clearing skies after
midnight. Highs today are expected to range from the lower 60s
across the KS/CO border to around 70 degrees across south central
Kansas. Lows tonight will generally be in the lower to mid 30s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014
A strong upper level trough will be exiting the central High Plains
on Sunday. Surface low pressure will be situated in southern
Oklahoma. A strong pressure gradient will be in place to the north
and northwest of the low over central and parts of southwest Kansas
with an isallobaric pressure response moving through the area. Very
strong northerly winds will be well into advisory criteria during
the morning hours. Sunday afternoon should be more pleasant across
southwest Kansas as an upper level ridge builds into the central
High Plains and the surface pressure gradient relaxes.
On Monday, another shortwave trough will be moving through the
northern Rockies. Cyclogenesis will be ongoing over the northern
High Plains with lee side troughing over eastern Colorado. Warmer
and drier air will spread out across western Kansas. The shortwave
trough pushes southeast through the northern and central Plains on
Tuesday. The medium range models are trending toward keeping any
significant precipitation confined to northern Kansas and points
north. Will keep the slight chance pops that the CR Extended
Initialization shows but not overly confident we will see anything
at all. Northerly winds could approach advisory criteria again on
Tuesday behind the cold front.
The remainder of the week should be fairly quiet although another
wave moving out across the northern Plains could push another cold
front across western Kansas on Friday.
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014
VFR conditions are expected through the first part of this taf period.
A cold front will push through Garden City, Dodge City and Hays
between 18z-21z with winds increasing from the north behind the front.
The strong winds could cause some MVFR visibilities in blowing dust.
MVFR ceilings are expected to develop later tonight.
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014
Relative humidity levels could drop to around 15 percent on Monday
as warmer/drier air spreads across southwest Kansas. With the
potential for wind gusts to reach 25 mph, there will be an increased
threat for wildfire activity.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 63 32 47 26 / 20 20 0 0
GCK 61 30 49 27 / 20 20 0 0
EHA 61 31 52 31 / 20 20 0 0
LBL 63 32 50 26 / 20 20 0 0
HYS 64 30 46 25 / 10 10 0 0
P28 70 35 46 23 / 30 30 10 0
WIND ADVISORY from 1 AM to 1 PM CDT Sunday FOR KSZ030-031-