Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 031737

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1137 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 1137 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Widespread stratus, drizzle, fog, with scattered light showers of
rain/snow across the eastern CWA this afternoon. A classic gray
day. Temperatures will sit in the 30s through the afternoon with
no sun. Light and variable winds are expected to become upslope
and light SEly this evening, which may encourage a few hours of
fog formation and restricted visibility. Also after 6 pm,
GFS/NAM/HRRR depict a final slug of warm air advection forcing
spreading across the SE 1/2 of the CWA, offering a final round of
light to moderate rain. Raised pops into likely category for these
areas this evening, with QPF of 0.10-0.15 forecasted by some
models. Confident this will fall as rain, as warm air advection at
850 mb continues. Sharp trough axis sweeps to the CO/KS border
around midnight, and clears the SE zones around 6 am Sunday. The
sky will clear rapidly as this occurs, as the associated Pacific
cool front sweeps out the moisture with a modest NW breeze. Lows
Sunday morning ranging from the upper teens far NW, to the mid 20s
at Dodge City, to the mid 30s near Kiowa.

Sunday...What a difference a day makes. The pick day of the
weekend, with full sun, light winds and seasonable temperatures.
A modest NW breeze at 10-20 mph Sunday morning will diminish to
light SWly less than 10 mph, as weak high pressure translates to
near Medicine Lodge by 6 pm.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 221 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

A quiet and dry period is expected Sunday through Monday with
mostly clear skies and dry conditions. An upper level disturbance
moves through the Northern Plains Monday night which will in turn
push a cold front through western Kansas. No precipitation is
expected at this time with only an increase in cloud cover.
Cloudiness continues to increase Tuesday with a good chance of
precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. As of now, the
temperature looks to be cold enough for this precipitation to fall
as snow. This disturbance will quickly move out of the area by
Wednesday evening with decreasing cloudiness. A dry weather
pattern is then expected for the remainder of the week. As for
temperatures, highs Sunday and Monday look to top out in the upper
40s to lower 50s with lows in the 20s. A much cooler air mass
filters in Tuesday behind the cold front with highs ranging from
around 30 degrees across west central Kansas to around 40 degrees
across south central Kansas. Even colder temperatures are expected
Wednesday behind the second disturbance with highs only reaching
into the mid to upper 20s Wednesday then around 30 degrees
Thursday. Highs then rebound into the 30s Friday. Lows during this
time frame will dip into the teens Tuesday and Thursday nights
with single digits expected Wednesday night.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Poor flying conditions will continue through the entire afternoon
and into this evening. Scattered showers (-RW/-SW) will continue
through about 00z, but amounts will be light and impacts minimal.
HRRR model depicts another round of -RA affecting mainly DDC
00-03z Sun. Primary impact will be IFR/LIFR stratus cigs and low
vis in BR/FG that will persist at all airports into this evening.
After 06z Sun, rapid improvements to VFR/SKC expected as trough
axis clears SW KS. Much improved flying weather expected on
Sunday, with few clouds and a light NW breeze.


DDC  36  26  49  27 /  60  60   0   0
GCK  37  23  49  27 /  30  30   0   0
EHA  38  23  48  26 /  30   0   0   0
LBL  37  24  49  25 /  50  60   0   0
HYS  35  24  49  27 /  60  30   0   0
P28  41  32  53  30 /  80  60   0   0




LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
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