Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KDDC 270907
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
407 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Updated short term section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continued to develop, die off, and
redevelop on renewed cold pools during the overnight hours.  We will keep some
chance POPs going through the night, but all the short term high resolution
models do suggest an overall downtrend in convection by daybreak. That being
said, we will remain within an axis of enhanced mid level moisture (monsoonal
moisture that has rotated around the north side of the mid level anticyclone to
the south), so at the very least will will see mid-upper level clouds hanging
around for much of the day. We decided to go with the coolest guidance for
temperatures today as a result (CONSShort and GLAMP) with highs 86 to 88F for
most locations. Surface-based storms will redevelop along the front late today,
but mainly across the western TX/OK Panhandle and into southeastern Colorado
where orographics will come into play with post-frontal upslope flow. A fairly
decent MCS should mature tonight and likely at least clip far southwest Kansas,
southwest of a Johnson to Liberal line, and this is where we will keep the
highest chance POPs tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

The long term weather pattern will basically consist of an upper
level ridge building across the western United States and an upper
level long wave trough digging into the eastern United States. The
Central High Plains will be found in between these two features with
northwest flow above western Kansas. Mid levels of the atmosphere
cool down this week with increased cloud cover expected due to ample
moisture and lift. Towards the surface, an area of high pressure
will be located northeast of the CWA with an area of low pressure
developing southeast of the area around mid week. This means
southeast flow will be observed across the forecast area Sunday
night through at least Friday. The atmospheric column over western
Kansas will be very moist throughout the extended period with PWAT
values of over an inch expected. Lift will also be abundant due to
weak disturbances moving around the aforementioned ridge and these
features will bring the chance of heavy rain to western Kansas and
generally mostly cloudy skies. Thunderstorm chances look to be
confined to far western Kansas Sunday night with a break in the
action Monday morning into the early afternoon. Thunderstorm chances
then increase from west to east Monday afternoon into Monday night
with likely POPs in the grids Tuesday into Wednesday. Precipitation
chances decrease by the end of the week but have left a slight
chance in for the time being. Much cooler temperatures are expected
this week with highs in the lower to mid 80s with the exception of
Wednesday where mid to upper 70s are possible. Lows look to
generally be in the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A small MCS over far southeastern Colorado will likely stay out
there and dissolve, so there are no impacts expected at GCK
terminal. A weak surface front pushing through shifted the winds to
the northeast with the winds expected to remain northeast through
the day Sunday. Most of the precipitation on Sunday will stay south
of GCK and DDC along the surface frontal zone, so we will keep the
TAFs convection-free for now.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  86  65  80  64 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  86  64  80  64 /  20  20  10  10
EHA  86  64  77  65 /  40  40  30  30
LBL  86  66  78  65 /  30  40  20  20
HYS  89  62  84  63 /  10  10  10  10
P28  91  68  83  66 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Umscheid





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.