Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 171706
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1106 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1201 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

Lingering areas of light rain across south central and eastern
portions of southwest Kansas will come to an end by mid morning as
the triggering upper level shortwave lifts further east into the
southern Great Lakes Region. A secondary upper level shortwave
moving across the Colorado Rockies, will help dislodge the
stationary frontal boundary across southwest Kansas and push it
into Northern Oklahoma later this afternoon, allowing for drier
air to spread across the Western High Plains bringing an end to
precip chances through the remainder of the period. Colder air
filtering southward into western Kansas today will send H85
temperatures down to around 0C by this afternoon. Under mostly
cloudy skies through the first part of the day, look for highs
only up into the 40s(F) across west central and much of southwest
Kansas. The lower 50s(F) are likely ahead of the boundary in
south central Kansas. Surface high pressure will sink southward
across western Kansas into the South Plains Sunday night
reinforcing the colder air mass across the high plains. Should see
lows down into the teens(F) in west central Kansas to the 20s(F)
further east.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 1239 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

A rather dry pattern will set up across the high plains of western
Kansas early in the period despite an upper level shortwave trough
projected to push out of the Desert Southwest into the South Plains.
A weak flow aloft and a prevailing drier air mass across the Western
High Plains will hold any chances for precip at bay, especially
toward the middle part of the week as weak ridging aloft moves out
of the Central Rockies into the Central Plains. Surface high
pressure will kick eastward across the Central Plains Monday while
lee side troughing develops across eastern Colorado, producing a
southwesterly flow across western Kansas. This will draw warmer air
into the region, pushing H85 temperatures up near 10C. Highs up into
the 50s(F) are likely Monday afternoon with a few lower 60s(F)
possible across portions of southwest Kansas. A weak cold front
pushing through western Kansas early Tuesday will result in slightly
cooler temperatures while highs bounce back a bit Wednesday as lee
side troughing develops, quickly returning southerlies to western
Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1022 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

Current MVFR conditions with a stratus cloud deck for DDC, GCK,
and LBL should give way to VFR conditions later this afternoon
around 21Z and continue through the rest of the time period. An
area of high pressure will move into Kansas by sunset and should
keep the skies mostly clear and the winds light.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  45  24  59  30 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  42  22  58  26 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  43  25  62  30 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  44  24  62  29 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  43  25  56  28 /  10   0   0   0
P28  51  28  60  34 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Tatro


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