Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 271800
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
100 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIMITED TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING SLOWLY EXITS EASTWARD OUT OF THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. A WEAK
FLOW ALOFT AND A DECENT CAP WILL HINDER STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE VICINITY OF A LEE SIDE
TROUGH NEAR AND ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. THE NAM/GFS SHOW SBCAPE VALUES INCREASING UP TO
AROUND 2000 TO 2500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS PROVIDING ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS AS CAPPING WEAKENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FAVORABLE
ENOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR AND THE HIGHER CAPE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP. A FEW
STORMS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH NORTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE TIME
FRAME IN QUESTION.

THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS SHORT RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING FURTHER
EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL PUSH THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS PROVIDING
INCREASED FORCING NEAR THE SURFACE. AGAIN, DECENT VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS EAST-NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

A PREVAILING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TONIGHT WILL
WARM LOW TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT FROM THE LOWS OBSERVED EARLY THIS
MORNING. LOOK FOR LOWS ONLY DOWN INTO THE 70S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL
AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT. EVEN AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS
TO PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS EARLY IN THE
DAY, HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH UP INTO THE 90S(F) ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. NEAR 100F IS STILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

LITTLE OVERALL ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST .
THE PERIOD IS STILL CHARACTERIZED BY THE FLATTENING OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WITH A BROAD UPPER  HIGH EXTENDED  ACROSS THE SOUTHERN  PLAINS AND
A RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXTENDING INTO KANSAS. A
BETTER CONVERGENCE/BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION I THE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME, BRINGING MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA, WHICH WILL HAVE EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES  FOR HEAVY RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS ONCE AGAIN. OPPORTUNITIES  BEYOND THIS TIMEFRAME MAY
DEPEND  MORE ON NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET PROCESSES WHICH WILL BE HIGHLY
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. HOWEVER THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK DOES APPEAR COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS BOTH FROM MODEL
AND MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
STRENGTHENS ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 20KT TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  75  97  69 /  20  10  40  50
GCK  98  72  95  67 /  20  20  30  50
EHA 100  70  95  66 /  20  20  40  50
LBL 100  75  98  69 /  10  20  40  50
HYS  99  75  95  68 /  20  20  20  50
P28  99  75 100  72 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...JJOHNSON


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