Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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784
FXUS63 KDDC 242310
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
610 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Outside of chances for elevated shower and thunderstorms overnight
or very early tomorrow, the weather pattern remains rather
uneventful. A broad surface high pressure will continue to influence
the region over the weekend. The few showers that occurred earlier
this morning may have been aided by the location of the right
entrance upper jet, and elevated instability. NAM/WRF was continuing
with the trend of early afternoon convection across the western
counties and spreading eastward, but this may be an overdone response
to the mid level instability field. Still a few elevated showers
can`t be ruled out as we head forward late this afternoon. The
better chance for convection appears, again in the southern and
western counties later in the day Sunday once destabilization
occurs. Better southerly boundary layer moisture/theta-e transport
should favor at least some surface cape near our area in the high
Plains with any potential storms being able to develop east into the
steep mid level lapse rates. Still a poor environment for severe
weather potential and will probably remain dry. Temperatures Sunday
will reflect that of today, a good 10 or more degrees below normal
highs for late June.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

NAM/WRF develops convective precipitation along a sfc/850 hPA
stationary front Monday evening across west central Kansas in what
should be a good severe environment bulk shear and CAPE-wise. GFS
is more broad based with it`s precipitation over the central and
southern High Plains warm sector. Temperatures remains at or near
normal through midweek before breaking out above normals as the
northwesterly flow aloft pattern breaks down in favor of
westerlies and the return of the dryline.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Sunday
afternoon. Light and variable winds will persist through early Sunday
as surface high pressure across central Kansas moves slowly east across
the Central Plains during the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  80  61  84 /  10  20  20  20
GCK  56  78  59  84 /  10  20  30  20
EHA  57  75  60  84 /  40  30  40  30
LBL  60  77  61  84 /  30  20  30  30
HYS  56  78  59  82 /  10  30  30  30
P28  60  84  62  85 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...JJohnson



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