Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 211902
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
202 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

Short range models indicate upper level ridging pushing eastward out
of the Colorado Rockies into the Western High Plains tonight and
spreading across the remainder of Kansas Tuesday. However, a weaker
flow aloft and a lack of needed low/mid level moisture will result
in dry conditions across western Kansas through late Tuesday
afternoon. Temperatures will be slightly cooler tonight as
marginally cooler air filters southwestward into western Kansas.
Expect lows mainly down into the 40s(F), especially with surface
dewpoints only falling into the lower 40s(F) and 30s(F). For
Tuesday, southerly winds will develop across western Kansas as
surface high pressure moves further east into eastern Kansas. This
will begin to draw much warmer air northward into the area with H85
temperatures ranging from around 15C across central Kansas to a
little above 20C in extreme southwest Kansas. Under mostly sunny
skies, look for highs well up into the 70s(F) across central
Kansas with lower to mid 80s(F) likely in far southwest Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

An upper ridge will be transitioning eastward across the Great
Plains on Tuesday. Surface pressure falls along the lee of the
Rockies and the retreating surface high pressure across the Missouri
valley will create a moisture transport zone over the central High
Plains, effectively causing an increasing in surface and 850 mb dew
points across western and central Kansas. Afternoon heating across
the higher terrain around the Palmer Divide will allow thunderstorms
to form and be steered eastward into this moisture and instability
axis. Some thunderstorms could move into western Kansas through the
evening hours most likely around Syracuse. With a lack of dynamics,
convection should be mainly diurnally driven, and as a result dry
weather is likely through the overnight Tuesday into Wednesday
morning with mild lows. An upper wave will be approaching  the
region Wednesday with several impacts. A decent surface pressure
gradient will be in place as much drier air mixes out eastward
though the morning and afternoon. The overall momentum transfer will
probably be negatively influenced by mid level cloud decks indicated
on model soundings and may even prevent a high wind event given 0-1
km mean winds on the order of 35-40 knots. Additionally a set up for
severe storms will exist along and ahead of the dryline as the
atmosphere destabilizes through the morning. Potential for rotating
supercells exist with NAM model suggesting around 2-3 m2/s2 EHI(3km)
with up to round 2000 J/kg of surface based CAPE ahead of the
dryline feature. Good subsidence should follow in behind this
dryline overnight into Thursday morning. Dry and warm conditions
will likely follow into Friday as the next flat upper  ridge settle
across the region. Additional thunderstorm chances are in the
forecast later in the weekend and early nextweek associated with
yet another west coast jet carving a trough into the southern
Rockies by the GFS and ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Tuesday
morning. Northeasterly winds of 15 to 25kt will continue through
late this afternoon behind a weak cold front pushing southeast
across south central Kansas into Oklahoma. Winds will then subside
this evening while becoming more easterly as surface high pressure
moves from the Colorado Rockies into the Western High Plains.
Southerly winds of 10 to 20kt will develop early Tuesday morning
as the surface high shifts further east into eastern Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  45  80  56  82 /   0   0  10  40
GCK  45  82  57  83 /   0  10  10  50
EHA  50  83  57  82 /   0  10  10  20
LBL  48  83  58  83 /   0   0  10  30
HYS  43  77  56  81 /   0  10  20  50
P28  47  78  54  82 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...JJohnson






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