Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 191719
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1119 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

...Updated to lower temperatures today and Updated Aviation
Discussion...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1117 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Model soundings and satellite both indicating a large area of low
clouds covering western Kansas with temperatures as of 11 am
mainly in the mid to upper 20s. Forecast guidance not doing a very
good job with these low clouds and as a result it has afternoon
highs climbing back well into the 40s with even a few 50s late
day. Given the expected cloud cover forecast by the NAM and RAP
model soundings this appears to be overdone so have lowered highs
and kept skies cloudy throughout the remainder of the day. Highs
mainly in the 30s will be more likely for most of western Kansas
today. The possible exception will be near the Oklahoma border
where some breaks in the clouds late day could yield highs in the
40s for the Elkhart, Liberal and possibly even the Medicine Lodge
areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

The Arctic front and associated stratus continues to move southward
early this morning across southwest Kansas. The main forecast concern
is where this boundary will stall out. Usually in these situations,
the cold air wins. Some of the models return the boundary northward
as a warm front due to cyclogenesis. Feel this might be a bit
aggressive and took the cooler solution guidance. Elkhart, Kansas
will probably win out with the warmest temperatures during the day.
Otherwise, the northern zones will see 30s, central zones 40s. The
southern zones near the Oklahoma border will see the most impressive
temperature gradient across these counties with 10 to 20 degree
difference likely across just a single county. The bottom line is
that there is uncertainty in the high temperature forecast for
today. The good news is that with the cooler temps, fire weather
concerns should be lower if the evolution of temps go as anticipated.

Have some slight pops late tonight across the eastern zones.
Confidence on actually seeing measurable precipitation is low. The
EC and ARW/NMMB show much of the light precipitation remaining east
of the forecast district. Would not be surprised if these pops are
overdone and much of the area remains dry.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 333 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

On Tuesday and Wednesday the cold air will prevail across the Central
Plains. Highs should range from the 20s to lower 40s Tuesday and
mainly 30s Wednesday. Attention the turns to Thursday. Confidence on
precipitation and precipitation type is very low at this point. Some
of the models show a wintry mix, while others less so. At this
point, it is just too early to determine which model is correct. Any
precipitation should be mainly relegated to the eastern zones with
much of the CWA remaining dry. Beyond this, temperatures will
moderate through the rest of the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1117 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Model soundings and satellite both indicating a large area of IFR
to MVFR stratus covering western Kansas as of 16z Monday. Guidance
not doing a very good job with these low clouds so will be
following the RAP and NAM models soundings for cloud bases over
the next 24 hours. IFR ceilings are expected to improve into the
MVFR category during the afternoon and there may even be a few
breaks of sun late day around Liberal, Dodge City and Garden City.
After 03z Tuesday the ceilings will once again lower back into the
IFR category for all four taf sites. Model soundings also showing
a 45 to 50 knot low level jet overnight over the cold dome of high
pressure. Although surface winds are expected to range from 10 to
15 knots overnight the winds are expected to rapidly increase in
the 1500 to 2000 ft level to 40 to 50 knots. Low level wind shear
can be expected at all TAF sites overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  32  23  35  11 /  10  10   0   0
GCK  33  19  32   9 /  10  10   0  10
EHA  44  28  40  13 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  40  29  43  11 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  33  18  27   9 /  10  20   0   0
P28  41  30  41  16 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Burgert



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