Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 011410
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
910 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 907 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WV Imagery and 12Z upper air analysis indicate an upper level
shortwave trough lifting northeast across western Nebraska while
a west-southwest flow aloft encompasses much of the Intermountain
West. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure is
anchored near and along the Colorado/Kansas border.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A convective outflow boundary from eastern Colorado convection was
racing across western Kansas early this morning with a few elevated
showers and isolated lightning strikes well behind the features. In
the near term a few isolated showers could linger into the highway
283 corridor towards 3 or 4 am however most of the area will remain
dry. The pattern is not supportive of fog this morning with better
near surface layer mixing on southerly surface winds.

A 590 DM 500 mb ridge axis will remain anchored across the West
Texas/OK/KS region over the next couple of days. as a result the
impetus for any convective activity will be weak shortwave energy
and surface based differential heating over Colorado with weak
steering flow but favorable lapse rates into Kansas. The best signal
for convection from the NAM/GFS/ECMWF supports the northern half or
so of our forecast area at best. Again with virtually no shear to
work with and generally weak instability, no severe weather will
occur however pops were maintained late Tuesday night again.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 446 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

Heading into the extended period, the pattern continues to support
just about 1 standard deviation warmer than normal for high
temperature. Even warmer overnight lows are indicated by the gfs mos
numbers, with upper 60s common through next Tuesday, September 8.
Both the GFS and the ECMWF tend to flatten the upper ridge, with
faster flow and better baroclinicity over the Northern Plains and
Nebraska. This setup should be favorable for several rounds of
convective activity of our area, as well as to more localized
shortwave energy aiding small scale lift over western Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Wednesday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR conditions expected through TAF pd. Southerly winds will increase
12-25 kt this morning and then decrease 10-15 kt by tonight. A few high
level clouds will drift by.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  95  70  94  69 /   0  20  10  10
GCK  94  67  95  67 /  10  20  10  10
EHA  93  66  94  67 /  10  20  10  10
LBL  95  67  95  68 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  95  69  96  70 /   0  20  10  10
P28  96  72  95  71 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...99


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