Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 200502
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1202 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE AVIATION FORECAST...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TONIGHT:

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS DRIER
AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 40S, EXCEPT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS, WHERE LOW 50S ARE POSSIBLE.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA AS WELL, WITH
THE ONLY IMPACT BEING A WIND SHIFT. ANY WEAK WARM-AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS/ISO
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY. HAVE LOW GHOST POPS FOR MEDICINE LODGE LATE TONIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

TOMORROW:

LOW LEVEL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TOMORROW, WHICH WILL RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER MAXIMUMS - LOW 70S. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW. SKIES SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR AND THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
VEER TO MORE SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY BY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM THE FRONT RANGE TO ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE POOLING NORTH OF THIS FRONT LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWER LEVELS SATURATING
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
EXPECT TO SEE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS DEVELOPING LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG BUT GIVEN SOME TURBULENT MIXING
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, VISIBILITIES MAY NOT DROP TOO LOW OVERNIGHT.
THE CLOUDINESS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS THE LOWER LEVELS MIX
OUT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BE OPENING UP AS IT
BEGINS TO PHASE WITH A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN. THESE
SYSTEMS CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. THE
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER, AS
WELL AS THEIR RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS, IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT
OVERLY UNSTABLE SO WILL CONTINUE THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING INTO THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE
OUT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY QUICK WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OF THE AREA AND WILL HAVE PRECIPITATION ENDING BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

ALL PILOTS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS CAN EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LITTLE OR NO CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED, AND
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  50  74  50  77 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  46  74  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  50  73  51  76 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  49  76  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  47  73  46  75 /   0   0   0   0
P28  52  77  52  77 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...BURKE



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