Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 211802
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
102 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRANSITIONING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND FURTHER EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY. ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
FROM NEBRASKA SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN KANSAS WILL REINFORCE A COOLER
AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS WELL
DOWN INTO THE 50S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO WESTERN KANSAS
MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST OUT OF EASTERN KANSAS. THE
NAM AND GFS SHOW VERY LITTLE CHANCE TO H85 TEMPERATURES WITH THE MID
TEENS(C) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE UPPER TEENS(C) IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 70S(F) TO NEAR 80F
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE
EXTENDED EAST ASIAN JET DIGS INTO A PROGRESSIVE MEAN TROUGH NEAR
130W AND A BLOCKY FLOW EVOLVES OVER THE UNITED STATES. THE NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PROGRESSION OF THE CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONE IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS
MORE INTENSE WITH CYCLOGENESIS THAT OCCURS AROUND 160W ON FRIDAY
THAN THE GFS AND CLOSES OFF A MORE INTENSE DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONE IN CALIFORNIA. THE GFS IS QUICKER TO MOVE THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EAST TO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THAN THE ECWMF AND HAS A
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA BY THE MORNING
OF 29 SEPTEMBER. THE ECMWF OPENS UP THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE AND
LIFTS IT OUT AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ON 29-30 SEPTEMBER WHILE
DIGGING ANOTHER TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES LONG WAVE
POSITION. CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IN THIS REGIME BEYOND THREE OR FOUR
DAYS IS MINIMAL, BUT IT IS LIKELY THAT A MEAN LONG WAVE WILL
PROGRESS TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THAT RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK
INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BY 4-5 OCTOBER. THE ECMWF TYPICALLY
PERFORMS BETTER THAN THE GFS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, AND THE SLOWER
LONG WAVE PROGRESSION ADVERTISED BY THE ECMWF MAY BE MORE REASONABLE.

ANTICYCLOGENESIS BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO
KANSAS TODAY. PRESSURES WILL FALL IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AS MID
LEVEL FLOW PERPENDICULAR TO THE MOUNTAINS INCREASES MONDAY WITH
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE CALIFORNIA UPPER LEVEL LOW. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN ON MONDAY WILL BE RESTRICTED TO EASTERN COLORADO FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. A NARROW BAND OF INSTABILITY LIKELY WILL DEVELOP
MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE IN EASTERN
COLORADO AND PROPAGATE INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. IF
ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING CAN BE ACHIEVED IN THE NARROW MOIST PLUME,
THERE IS SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO SUPPORT A FEW ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND A
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. AS THE THUNDERSTORMS INTO WESTERN KANSAS,
THEY WILL ENCOUNTER MORE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIKELY
WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY. THE SEVERE THREAT MOST LIKELY WILL BE
RESTRICTED TO NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PROPAGATE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
MONDAY NIGHT AS A MINOR UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES FROM EASTERN
COLORADO INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BEFORE SUNRISE. ANOTHER MINOR TROUGH
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY AND ENHANCE UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION IN THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ANOTHER AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WILL INITIATE IN WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST IN THE EVENING HOURS.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO SOUTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN RISING HEIGHTS AND DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN THE DAKOTAS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A
PORTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK WEST ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND WILL KEEP COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT IN KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEK.  A PORTION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BREAK
OFF AND WALLOW IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WHILE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE GULF
COAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, AND DIVERGENT LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH
GENERALLY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL SHUT OFF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, INSTABILITY
WILL BE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE LATER THIS WEEK; HOWEVER, A FEW
DIURNALLY MODULATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST UNDER THE UPPER
LEVEL COLD POOL THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST OUT OF
NEBRASKA INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT WHILE TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PUSHES FURTHER OFF TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  52  80  57  80 /   0  10  40  40
GCK  53  78  56  82 /   0  20  40  30
EHA  55  78  58  84 /   0  20  30  20
LBL  53  80  58  84 /   0  10  30  30
HYS  50  78  55  78 /   0  10  50  50
P28  52  80  59  79 /   0   0  40  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUTHI
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



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