Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 082300
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
500 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1209 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

Tonight other than perhaps a brief cloud deck in association with
a backdoor cold front that is forecast to move through central
Kansas most of the forecast region should be quiet tonight as the
gusty winds will die down after sunset. Given the dry ground and
how the winds should calm down I went below MOS guidance for
lows. The past few days have been effective for radiational
cooling so I saw no reason why much of the area couldn`t fall into
the lower 20s.

Upper level flow continues to stay primarily north to northwest
through the time period as the ridge over the Rockies starts to
gradually move east through the day Saturday. This should allow
slightly warmer air to move into the region Saturday afternoon.
Temperatures should range from the mid to upper 50s with a few 60s
near the CO border. Winds should be lighter for Saturday however
the forecast RH look to be lower so the elevated fire risk will
continue for areas west of Highway 83.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 130 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

A consistent upper level pattern of a Hudson Bay Low and an upper
level ridge over the Rockies will continue through at least the
17th the way the GFS and Euro models are forecasting. The
continued trend of dry weather, up and down swings in
temperatures, with a few windy days mixed in this the highlight of
the forecast. Almost everyday will have an inherent fire danger
with Monday having a greater one.

Sunday will have the warmest temperatures of the time period at
this point. A very dry atmosphere combined with a west-northwest
breeze and sunny skies along with a milder 850mb airmass in the
area (10C according to the GFS, 12C according to the Euro) I went
ahead and raised high temperatures into the mid 60s but we could
realistically see upper 60s to low 70s in that environment.

Monday a shortwave trough will move through the northern plains
dragging another backdoor cold front into Kansas. Given the
unidirectional flow of the winds combined with a tightening
pressure gradient we could see strong afternoon winds across the
region. Monday will especially need to be monitored for fire
weather.

Wednesday both GFS and Euro hint at another shortwave coming in
from the Rockies. The GFS wants to bring the wave through Kansas
and the Euro wants to form a closed low over the four corners
region. In either case, it`ll be another dry cold frontal passage
followed by gusty afternoon winds. Towards the very end of the
forecast period we could begin to see a change in the upper level
wind pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 500 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

VFR/SKC through Saturday, with occasional cirrus passing by in the
northerly flow aloft. NW winds will weaken rapidly at sunset this
evening, but remain somewhat elevated at 10-13 kts overnight. Once
again on Saturday, NW winds will increase after 15z, but at speeds
much reduced from those observed on Friday. NW winds will average
14-24 kts at all airports 15-22z Sat, and rapidly diminish again
toward 00z Sun.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  23  56  28  66 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  20  56  26  65 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  26  58  29  67 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  25  56  26  65 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  26  53  28  65 /   0   0   0   0
P28  25  53  26  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...Turner



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