Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 260836

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
336 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

...Updated short term and aviation sections...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Low stratus or patchy fog will be possible this morning, mainly
across west central and central Kansas. This is due to abundant
moisture being advected northward at the surface with
southeasterly up-slope winds. These clouds should burn off by the
afternoon with winds increasing in speed and shifting to more of a
southerly direction. Another round of severe thunderstorms is
possible late this afternoon into the evening hours east of
highway 83 with the best chance east of highway 283. These storms
form as an upper level low moves into the Four Corners Region with
an associated 80+ knot 250mb jet extending into southwest Kansas.
In addition, an area of surface low pressure will be spinning
across western Kansas with associated warm front extending to the
northeast of the low and a cold front extending to the south of
the low. These features will enhance lift across the area.
Moisture in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also be
abundant with steep lapse rates found as you go up into the mid
parts of the atmosphere. The atmosphere will become very unstable
during peak heating causing CAPE values to exceeding 4000 J/kg
with 0-6 km shear over 30 knots west of highway 83. Any storms
that do develop will have the potential of producing large hail
and damaging winds. Also, a few tornadoes will also be possible
with these storms. Storms chances will then be confined to
northern and central Kansas after midnight with partly cloudy
skies observed elsewhere. As for temperatures, highs today look to
range from the lower 80s across west central Kansas to around 90
degrees along the KS/OK border. Lows tonight are expected to range
from the lower 50s across the KS/CO border to lower 60s across
south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

On Friday and Friday night a 500mb will low slowly moves east
northeast across the west central high plains. As this upper level
system crosses western Kansas during the day the models indicate
that the dry line will move further east into central Kansas and a
cold front will drop south into western Kansas by late day.
Convection along either of these boundaries still look possible,
especially late day and early Friday night. Based on the latest
forecast on the location of these boundaries late day will keep
chance for thunderstorms going east and north of Dodge City. The
better opportunities will be in north central Kansas.

Highs in the 80s for much of south central Kansas given the 850mb
temperatures at 00z Saturday south of the cold front and west of
the dry line. Northwest of the cold front in west central Kansas
temperatures may struggle to warm much higher then the mid 70s
given the increase in cloud cover and the afternoon cooling 900mb
to 850mb temperatures.

On Saturday the upper low will continue to slowly move east
across the central plains and a westerly down slope flow will
begin to improve across eastern Colorado and far western Kansas.
In north central Kansas during the day there will be a chance for
clouds and possibly some lingering precipitation given the
moisture and weak lift west of the upper low as it crosses central
Kansas. Further west there will be more sun with highs climbing
back into the lower 80s.

Sunday will be sunny and warm as a trough of low pressure
develops along the lee of the Rockies. By late day or early Sunday
night the chance for thunderstorms will begin to increase across
western Kansas as moisture begin to return ahead of an upper level
trough that will be approaching the area from the southwest. At
this time there are some timing differences between the GFS and
ECMWF with this late weekend/early next week upper level system so
given this uncertainty will stay close to the CRExtendeFcst_Init
as for precipitation chances for Sunday night into early next


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Low stratus or patchy fog will be possible across the TAF sites
this morning bringing periods of MVFR conditions. Winds this
morning will generally be from the east to southeast at less than
10 knots. These clouds should dissipate by late morning with winds
shifting to more of a southerly direction and increasing to
around 20 knots with higher gusts. Thunderstorms will be possible
late this afternoon into this evening at the DDC and HYS


DDC  88  56  80  54 /  40  10  20  20
GCK  88  53  77  52 /  20  10  30  20
EHA  86  52  76  51 /  10  10  30  10
LBL  89  52  79  53 /  20  10  20  10
HYS  82  58  80  55 /  50  40  40  40
P28  87  63  84  58 /  50  30  30  30


.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Hovorka_42 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.