Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 101744
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1244 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

A weak shortwave trough was progressing southeastward across the
central plains early this morning. Just ahead of this feature,
low to mid level frontogenesis and warm/moist advection has resulted
in thunderstorms with heavy rain across parts of central and south
central Kansas. This feature will be moving southeastward and away
from western Kansas today. In the wake of this feature, upper level
ridging will develop across western Kansas by later this afternoon.
Zonal mid level flow across the Rockies from northern Kansas
northward will result in lee troughing that will extend as far south
as Texas. A very warm plume of air up though 700mb from the
southern high plains will advect into southwestern Kansas during the
day. However, as the early morning storm cluster progresses from
southern Kansas into Oklahoma, an outflow boundary will be situated
from central Oklahoma into northwestern Oklahoma to around Dodge
City and Ness City by noon. During the afternoon, the models advertise
this boundary to get shunted to the east by southwesterly momentum
associated with the lee trough. However, sometimes the models are
not strong enough with low level cold pools left over by convection.
Therefore, I opted to lower the high temperatures by several degrees
along a Hays to Pratt line and eastward. The NAM continues to be too
hot for daytime highs in the warm sector. This model does very well in
dry regimes; however, given all the rain that has occurred over
the past month or so, it is not performing as well. Despite the
100+F readings in the NAM for Dodge City and Garden City for
today, current thinking is that we may end up just shy of 100F,
assuming the outflow boundary is east of Dodge City. With upper
level ridging and mid level warming, any thunderstorms that
develop along this outflow boundary will be very isolated, and
there may be no thunderstorms at all. Storm chances were kept
below 15%.

Thunderstorms are not expected tonight given the upper level ridging
and since the 700mb warm plume will have advected well into eastern
Kansas by this time. Low temperatures will be held up into the upper
60s to lower 70s by persistent southerly winds.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

For Friday into Sunday, a broad area of upper level high pressure
begins to weaken ahead of a strong upper level low moving southward
from Central Canada and into the Upper Midwest. Weak surface low
pressure will continue in far western Kansas then move slowly into
central Kansas by Sunday. Some moisture convergence along the trough
may be enough to set off a few thunderstorms mainly far west on
Friday then a slight chance into much of western Kansas into Sunday.
High temperatures will be warm and around 100 on Friday, and mid to
upper 90s Saturday, then low to mid 90s for Sunday. Overnight lows
will continue mild and in the low to mid 70s into Sunday morning.

For Monday into mid week next week, the upper level low and
associated cold upper trough will continue to build southward into
the Upper Midwest and Central Plains with a cooling trend. Highs
cool from around 90 on Monday into the 70s and 80s for Tuesday into
Wednesday. Some small chances for thunderstorms continue with the
best chances with and behind a cold front on Monday night and
Tuesday. Overnight lows look to be in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

Fairly quiet weather is expected with wind direction remaining out
of the south, on average, through the TAF period. Late afternoon
winds will be averaging 18 to 22 knots with a decrease to around
15 to 17 knots after sunset. Winds will stay up above 13 knots
through the overnight hours as the pressure gradient remains
fairly strong. Another breezy to windy day is expected Friday with
average south/southwest winds of 21 to 24 knots sustained.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  91  71  98  71 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  94  70  99  70 /  10  10  10  10
EHA 101  69  97  70 /  10   0  10  10
LBL 100  70  99  71 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  87  72  99  72 /  10  10  10  10
P28  89  72  98  73 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Umscheid





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