Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 281800
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
100 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
CLOUDS, FRONTOGENESIS, AND SPRINKLES WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST BY DAWN
FOLLOWED BY RAPID CLEARING INTO THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT AS COOLER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.

TONIGHT, WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, SOME PATCHY
FROST IS POSSIBLY, MAINLY AROUND THE I-70 CORRIDOR. LATER SHIFTS MAY
NEED TO WATCH FOR A POSSIBLE FREEZE/FROST ADVISORY. LOWS WILL RUN
FROM THE MID 30S AROUND I-70 TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE WITH
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS MORNING DEVELOPING TOWARDS DAWN ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE IN PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRANSITIONS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A WEAKER FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST OUT OF EASTERN KANSAS WHILE LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WITHIN A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RAISING H85
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS(C) ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, EXPECT HIGHS PUSHING
UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S(F) WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE CYCLING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL SEND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS EARLY
THURSDAY HELPING TO CAP THE WARMING TREND AND DROP HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S(F) THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST HELPS REINFORCE THE COOLER
AIR MASS FILTERING SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS. LOOK FOR HIGHS
ONLY UP INTO THE UPPER 50S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE LOWER
TO MID 60S(F) LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD, RESULTING IN
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AFTER 18Z THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  66  36  71  44 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  64  34  71  42 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  63  35  71  44 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  65  36  71  43 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  65  34  70  43 /   0   0   0   0
P28  67  39  71  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...FINCH



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