Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 131134
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
634 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015
...Updated for aviation discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015
For today, northwesterly dry upper level flow will prevail across
the Central Plains while the main upper jet remains north into the
Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. A very weak surface pressure
gradient will be in place across western Kansas today with light
westerly winds becoming light north to light and variable, as weak
low pressure moves into parts of southwest Kansas. 850 mb temps warm
to around 22 degrees Celsius with mixdown temps yielding highs
around 86 to 88 degrees. These temps are about 15 degrees above
normal. Skies will be clear.
For tonight, weak surface high pressure builds into the Central
Plains with light north to northeasterly winds and clear skies.
Overnight lows will be in the mid 40s except around 50 near the
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015
For Wednesday, dry upper level northwesterly flow will continue with
clear skies across the Central Plains. Weak surface high pressure
will be moving east into the Mississippi Valley with return
southerly winds. Slightly cooler temps will be found behind a weak
cold front with highs from 79 to 82 degrees.
For Thursday, upper level ridging into western Canada will force a
shortwave trough to dig into the Northern Plains. This wave will
push a cold front across western Kansas on Thursday afternoon into
Thursday night. Ahead of the cold front on Thursday, highs will be
mild and in the mid to upper 80s. Slightly cooler temps will be
north of Dodge City and in the upper 70s to around 80. There may be
enough moisture convergence and instability with CAPEs around 500 to
1000 J/kg to get a few thunderstorms going by late afternoon and
early evening, generally east and southeast of Dodge City in the
Medicine Lodge area. Weak layer shear and low instability should
preclude severe storms.
For the period of Friday into next Monday, a strong upper level
shortwave trough will be advancing from the western U.S. and into
the High Plains by Monday. A few thunderstorms are possible Monday
across far western Kansas. Some strong to severe storms may occur as
a mid level cold pool moves into the region along with marginal
shear and instability. Highs will warm from the 60s on Friday and
Saturday, to the mid and upper 70s Sunday and Monday ahead of the
upper level wave.
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Wednesday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015
A weak pressure gradient will result in light westerly winds
today. A weak cold front is expected to pass the TAF sites around
05-07z, resulting in north winds at 6-12 kts. VFR conditions will
prevail given the dry air in place at low levels.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 88 46 80 53 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 87 45 81 50 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 86 51 83 53 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 87 50 82 52 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 86 44 79 49 / 0 0 0 0
P28 87 49 82 52 / 0 0 0 0