Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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125
FXUS63 KDDC 241147
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
647 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

...Aviation Section Updated...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Upper level high pressure centered over Colorado into the Great Basin
will build east into the central and southern Plains through tonight.
The associated increase in thickness values along with plenty of
sunshine due to a fairly dry airmass over the region will result in
daytime high temperatures some 2 to 5 degrees warmer than on Sunday.
While I couldn`t totally rule out a stray thunderstorm approaching
southwest Kansas late this afternoon, think that we should remain dry
through tonight as instability is weak and no appreciable forcing
mechanisms are present across the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

On Tuesday, a strong upper level low pressure system will move
east across southern Canada while a trailing shortwave trough
extending from the low moves east over the northern and central
Plains. This will force the lee side trough out of the eastern
slopes of the Rockies and into west central and northwest Kansas
Tuesday night along with a chance for thunderstorms to central and
west central Kansas. The upper level flow over the central High
Plains into the central Rockies becomes more northwesterly behind
this wave. This will help push a cool front south from the
northern Plains across Kansas Wednesday afternoon and evening
along with increasing chances for thunderstorms. There is some
uncertainty as to how far south the front will progress with the
GEM and GFS a little more aggressive than the ECMWF. All the models
have it south of the forecast area by Thursday evening so precipitation
chances should also be diminishing. Forecast builder POPs may be a
little high Thursday afternoon and evening.

The models tend to agree that the upper ridge will retrograde
westward into the Rockies later in the week with northwesterly
flow aloft setting up over the central High Plains. With decent
low level moisture in place across western Kansas, weak
disturbances in the northwest flow could help generate widely
scattered to scattered thunderstorms across western Kansas
especially Friday night into Saturday. This flow pattern holds on
into early next week and should help keep temperatures at more
seasonal levels in the upper 80s and lower 90s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through Tuesday.

Upper level high pressure centered in New Mexico will propagate
into the central and southern Plains today and Tuesday. By
Wednesday morning an upper level ridge will extend from Missouri
to southeast New Mexico. A weak upper level trough in Arizona this
morning will move around the upper level ridge and approach
northwest Kansas Tuesday evening. At the surface, weak high
pressure will persist this morning. A trough of low pressure will
deepen in the lee of the Rockies during the day, and low level
winds will become south at 10 to 15 kts by late morning. The sky
will be clear except for a few wisps of thin, cirriform cloudiness
in northern Kansas. Thin cirriform cloudiness will become more
extensive Tuesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  97  71  97  74 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  94  69  96  73 /  10  10  10  20
EHA  93  68  96  72 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  96  70  97  74 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  98  71  98  75 /  10  10  10  20
P28  98  73  99  76 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Ruthi



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