Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 100657
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1257 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

...Updated Short Term and Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

The advertised very mild day appears to be on track for today,
especially across the southwestern counties. Much of the guidance
and gridded short term forecast output support afternoon
temperatures topping out in the 74 to 76 degree range along the
Oklahoma border. Warm air should even be found up in the Wakeeney
and Hays areas with highs likely in the lower 60s since the snowpack
is pretty much gone except for drifts (the exception being far
northern Ellis and Trego Co. per 1km visible satellite before sunset
yesterday). Wind direction will be from the northwest off the
snowpack, so there is definitely that to contend with, otherwise I
would feel quite comfortable with Trego and Ellis Co. joining the
upper 60s/near 70 party.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday NIGHT THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

A large upper level ridge will slowly slide eastward through
Friday before being pushed southward as an upper level low moves
into the Western United States then into the Northern Plains this
weekend. This will continue the northwest flow over western Kansas
through Friday. This will suppress any significant weather from
developing with mostly clear skies and dry conditions. The only
exception to this will be across central Kansas Thursday as
moisture increases in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere.
Westerly winds shift to more of a northerly direction Wednesday
night into Thursday as a weak frontal boundary moves through the
area. However, this will be short lived as winds shift to a
southerly direction as a weak trof develops across eastern
Colorado. An upper level shortwave is progged to move through the
Northern Plains and Great Lakes region Thursday night into Friday
helping push a cold arctic dome of high pressure at the surface
into the same area. this shortwave will also help push A cold
front through the area sometime Friday afternoon into Friday night
shifting winds to the north, but veering eastward as the dome of
high pressure slides northeast of the area. Abundant cold air
advection will accompany behind this cold front with below normal
temperatures on Saturday. Partly cloudy skies and dry conditions
are expected for the remainder of the extended period with a
general warming trend. However, a few of the models still suggest
a second storm system moving through the area early next week so
this will need to be watched as time passes on.

As for temperatures, a large gradient will remain across western
Kansas with highs Thursday ranging from the lower 40s across north
central Kansas to low 60s across far southwestern Kansas.
Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer Friday with generally the
same temperature gradient from north central Kansas to far
southwestern Kansas. Lows Wednesday night and Thursday night look
to dip to around 30 degrees. Cooler temperatures are expected
Friday night into Saturday with lows ranging from the lower 20s
across north central Kansas to around 30 degrees across far
southwestern Kansas. Highs Saturday look to range are expected to
range from the upper 30s across north central Kansas to upper 50s
across for southwestern Kansas. A warming trend is anticipated
Sunday into early next week with highs reaching back into the low
to mid 60s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Wednesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

Classic downslope day setting up today which will promote continued
VFR conditions. Winds will be westerly at 12 to 16 knots by a few
hours after sunrise with winds shifting to the northwest late in the
day as a surface low moves southeast from nebraska into far
northeast Kansas. Winds will subside after sunset to below 10
knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  29  53  31 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  70  28  57  29 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  75  33  62  34 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  74  31  60  31 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  57  26  45  30 /   0   0   0   0
P28  69  30  51  30 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Umscheid


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