Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000
FXUS63 KDDC 011735
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1235 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 907 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WV Imagery and 12Z upper air analysis indicate an upper level
shortwave trough lifting northeast across western Nebraska while
a west-southwest flow aloft encompasses much of the Intermountain
West. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure is
anchored near and along the Colorado/Kansas border.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A convective outflow boundary from eastern Colorado convection was
racing across western Kansas early this morning with a few elevated
showers and isolated lightning strikes well behind the features. In
the near term a few isolated showers could linger into the highway
283 corridor towards 3 or 4 am however most of the area will remain
dry. The pattern is not supportive of fog this morning with better
near surface layer mixing on southerly surface winds.

A 590 DM 500 mb ridge axis will remain anchored across the West
Texas/OK/KS region over the next couple of days. as a result the
impetus for any convective activity will be weak shortwave energy
and surface based differential heating over Colorado with weak
steering flow but favorable lapse rates into Kansas. The best signal
for convection from the NAM/GFS/ECMWF supports the northern half or
so of our forecast area at best. Again with virtually no shear to
work with and generally weak instability, no severe weather will
occur however pops were maintained late Tuesday night again.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 446 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

Heading into the extended period, the pattern continues to support
just about 1 standard deviation warmer than normal for high
temperature. Even warmer overnight lows are indicated by the gfs mos
numbers, with upper 60s common through next Tuesday, September 8.
Both the GFS and the ECMWF tend to flatten the upper ridge, with
faster flow and better baroclinicity over the Northern Plains and
Nebraska. This setup should be favorable for several rounds of
convective activity of our area, as well as to more localized
shortwave energy aiding small scale lift over western Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Wednesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Wednesday
morning. Southerly winds of around 15 to 25kt will persist across
central and portions of southwest Kansas through early this evening
then subside somewhat tonight with the loss of daytime heating as
a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored near and along
the Colorado border.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  95  69  95  68 /   0  20  10  10
GCK  94  67  96  66 /  10  20  10  10
EHA  93  67  95  66 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  95  67  96  67 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  95  68  97  69 /   0  20  10  10
P28  96  70  96  70 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...JJohnson



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