Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 210752
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
152 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

...Updated Fire weather discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Strong NW winds across SW KS this afternoon, with frequent gusts
in the 35-40 mph range. Peak gust observed at Garden City so far
has been 44 mph. With full sun and excellent mixing, strong gusts
will continue through about 4 pm, followed by rapid weakening
through sunset. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will
continue through sunset with the gusty winds and continued dry
advection. Any outdoor burning is strongly discouraged this
afternoon.

Tonight...Clear. Winds back to light west/SW overnight at less
than 10 mph. Lows Tuesday morning will range from the upper 20s
from Syracuse to Garden City to the upper 30s in eastern Barber
county. A downslope wind component expected overnight will keep
overnight temperatures again several degrees above late February
normals.

Tuesday...Sunny, very warm and spring-like, again. Kept sky grids
at zero, with no clouds expected. Weak lee troughing east of the
Rockies will promote a gentle SWly downslope breeze of 10-20 mph.
Much less wind than observed Monday, and atmosphere warms strongly
again with 850 mb temperatures ranging from +14C east to +20C
west. Forecasted highs several degrees above the MOS guidance,
with mid to upper 70s for all zones (25-30 degrees above normal).

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 140 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Dry weather will persist across SW KS through this entire long
term forecast, interrupted by a brief opportunity for rain and/or
snow across the northern zones Thursday night.

Wednesday...Another unseasonably warm day, ahead of lee side
cyclone in SE Colorado. Spring in February again, with 70s for all
locations and light winds. Lower 80s for the warmest locales south
of Dodge City along the KS/OK border.

Thursday...Strong shortwave trough approaches from the Rockies,
resulting in strong leeside cyclogenesis, with all models
depicting a 990 mb surface low near Ashland by 6 pm. As such, the
strongest SW winds and hottest downslope are expected to be
focused south of SW KS. Still, unseasonably mild temperatures will
continue, with highs ranging from near 60 north to the 70s along
the Oklahoma border. Some light rain showers or virga across the
NW zones by late afternoon, as dynamic lift increases on what
moisture is available.

Thursday night...Strong cold front, with strong N/NW winds. Model
consensus is growing that deformation zone rain/snow and
wraparound moisture will affect the northern zones during this
time frame. Blended pops fields yield chance pops roughly north of
U.S. Highway 50, and these were maintained. Expecting the southern
zones to remain dry. Any rain across the northern zones will
change to a windblown wet snow Thursday night, with 12z ECMWF
suggesting a few inches may accumulate along the I-70 corridor.
There may be some snow impacts to the Friday morning commute from
Wakeeney to Hays, and this will be watched closely.

Friday...Windy and sharply colder, with NW winds gusting 30-40 mph
and temperatures struggling into the lower 40s. It is still
February, and it will feel like it on Friday.

Saturday morning will be quite cold, as 12z ECMWF places a 1030 mb
Canadian surface high over Dodge City at sunrise. A hard freeze
for all zones, with mid teens across the NW CWA. Temperatures
slowly moderate next weekend behind the departing high, with
continued dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1120 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Westerly winds at 10 knots or less overnight will become southwest
at around 10 knots during the day on Tuesday as a surface trough
of low pressure deepens in eastern Colorado. RAP, NAM and GFS
Model soundings indicated what moisture that does cross western
Kansas today will be at or above 12000ft AGL.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 152 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

Unseasonably warm temperatures and low afternoon relative
humidity values can be expected today and Wednesday but winds are
forecast each day to be at less than 20 mph each afternoon.

On Thursday a surface cold front will move into southwest Kansas
where it will briefly become stationary before beginning to lift
back north as a warm front late day as the next upper level
disturbance approaches from the west. Warm and dry conditions will
continue south of the front Thursday afternoon as windy
conditions develop near the Oklahoma border. Thursday afternoon
wind speeds of 15 to near 30 mph may become possible by late day.

Elevated fire danger levels are expected both Wednesday and
Thursday across western Kansas given the low afternoon relative
humidity. The stronger winds developing on Thursday south of the
surface boundary will produce near critical to critical fire
danger levels in portions of southwest Kansas, mainly near the
Oklahoma border.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  77  42  78  42 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  77  38  77  39 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  78  41  78  41 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  77  39  80  41 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  76  42  74  39 /   0   0   0   0
P28  76  41  78  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Burgert
FIRE WEATHER...Burgert


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