Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 121918
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
218 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2014
...Updated short term discussion and fire weather section...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT WED MAR 12 2014
Tonight into early Thursday an upper level ridge axis is forecast
to weaken as it crosses the Rockies and moves out into the plains.
An upper level trough, which was located off the British Columbia
coast at 12z Wednesday, will then quickly follow this weaken ridge
and currently is expected to move across the northern Rockies by
early Thursday afternoon. A trough of low pressure at the surface
will deepen along the lee of the Rockies late tonight/early
Thursday as this upper level trough approaches the Rockies.
Westerly downslope flow will be improving ahead of this upper
level disturbance and based on the 850mb temperature trends from
00z Thursday to 00z Friday ranging from 7c to near 10c warm up the
latest MAV/MET guidance with highs rebounding back to near 70
degrees currently appears on track. This was also close to the
previous forecast to will will stay close to the previous forecast
Southwest winds will increase Thursday afternoon as a surface
trough of low pressure along the lee of the Rockies deepens. Based
on the surface dewpoints in the teens Thursday afternoon along
with the unseasonably warm temperatures expected...elevated fire
danger levels can be expected for most of western Kansas Thursday
afternoon. Wind speeds at this time however currently appear to be
just below red flag warning conditions.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014
Medium range models indicate a closed off upper level low opening up
as it begins to shift eastward across the Desert Southwest Thursday
and into the South Plains Friday bringing marginal precip chances to
the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma, and possibly extreme southern
portions of southwest and south central Kansas based on the
projected track of the shortwave. However, a lack of lower/mid
level moisture will limit what little precip may occur. A secondary
upper level shortwave is expected to drop southeast out of the
Pacific Northwest into the Colorado Rockies Saturday setting up
another shot for precip to portions of western Kansas Saturday
evening into Sunday.
Temperatures will rebound quickly Thursday as arctic high pressure
moves further south across Texas while lee side troughing redevelops
across eastern Colorado. This will help turn an already downsloping
northwest flow back to the southwest throughout the day drawing much
warmer H85 temperatures into the area with values around 10C across
central Kansas to the mid Teens(C) in far southwest Kansas. Highs
will easily reach the 60s(F) Thursday afternoon with near 70F
possible in some locations. A weak cold front is then projected to
push through western Kansas early Friday curbing the warming trend
with highs only up into the 50s(F) to near 60F. Slightly warmer
temperatures return Saturday as lee side troughing redevelops
across eastern Colorado.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT WED MAR 12 2014
Gusty northwest winds will subside this afternoon, and then
gradually back more to the west after sunset as a surface ridge
axis moves across northern Texas and western Oklahoma. West winds
at less than 10 knots will continue overnight but by early
Thursday morning begin to back more to the southwest as a surface
pressures begin to fall along the lee of the Rockies. VFR
conditions are expected based on 12z model soundings and large
scale subsidence this afternoon and overnight.
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT WED MAR 12 2014
Southwest winds will increase on Thursday as a trough of low
pressure at the surface deepens along the lee of the Rockies. The
surface dewpoints in the teens Thursday afternoon combined with
unseasonably warm temperatures will result in relative humidities
bottoming out in the teens across much of western Kansas late day.
Elevated fire weather conditions can be expected Thursday
afternoon given these low afternoon relative humidities and
increasing southwest winds. Any outdoor burning is discouraged.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 28 70 42 56 / 0 0 10 10
GCK 25 70 38 52 / 0 0 10 10
EHA 30 70 46 56 / 0 0 10 10
LBL 26 71 41 61 / 0 0 10 10
HYS 28 72 39 58 / 0 0 0 0
P28 29 70 45 62 / 0 0 10 10