Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 011803
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
103 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

...Updated short term section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016

Light to moderate rain showers will continue across the southern
half of the CWA this evening spreading northeastward overnight.
This is due to a weak shortwave moving over the area. Otherwise
expect mostly cloudy skies through tonight. These showers are
expected to diminish by sunrise tomorrow with decreasing
cloudiness throughout the day tomorrow. Winds will generally be
from a northerly direction through tomorrow as a dome of high
pressure sits across the area. Below normal temperatures continue
with lows tonight ranging from the lower 30s across portions of
west central Kansas to lower 40s across portions of south central
Kansas. Highs tomorrow look to reach into the lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun May 1 2016

Monday...Dry and milder, but cyclonic flow aloft will continue to
keep temperatures below early May normals. Afternoon max temps in
the upper 50s and lower 60s.

Tuesday...Weak shortwave embedded in northerly flow aloft passes
through western Kansas. No impacts expected. Partly to mostly
sunny and milder. Despite the N/NW flow, 850 mb temperatures
moderate, allowing afternoon temperatures to return closer to
normal in the upper 60s to near 70.

Wednesday and Thursday...Flow becomes highly meridional across
North America, with a strong high pressure ridge axis establishing
along the spine of the Rocky Mountains. Afternoon temperatures
warm well into the 70s to near 80, with few clouds and light
winds.

Friday...High pressure ridge axis crosses SW KS during the
morning. Strong omega block develops again over the U.S., with
anchor lows in central California and the Delmarva. Ecmwf model
suggests significant warming on Friday, with highs well into the
80s. Overnight low temperatures will also warm noticeably during
this time frame, as S/SE flow and moisture transport begin.

Saturday...Little synoptic movement across the nation, as flow
becomes highly blocked. Western anchor low of the omega block will
be in no hurry to move eastward, but medium range models still
suggest leading jet energy ahead of this cyclone will interact
with the dryline to increase thunderstorm potential by next
weekend.

Next Sunday...00z ECMWF suggests a significant severe weather
event is possible across Kansas, with strong cyclogenesis across
NW Kansas and an active dryline. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016

MVFR conditions are anticipated this afternoon into tonight as a
weak disturbance moves through the area. They only exception to
this will be at the HYS terminal where VFR conditions will be
possible overnight. A few showers will be possible across the DDC
and GCK terminals this evening but confidence is low and have only
placed VCSH at this time. Winds will generally be from the north
gusting to over 20 knots this afternoon then decrease to below 10
knots this evening into the overnight period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  38  63  39 /  30  30  10  10
GCK  52  38  63  38 /  30  30  10   0
EHA  48  37  61  38 /  70  50  10  10
LBL  51  39  62  37 /  70  50  10  10
HYS  52  39  62  39 /  10  20  10   0
P28  60  42  64  41 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Hovorka_42



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