Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 131005
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
405 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

Areal expansion of stratus will be the main forecast challenge
heading through the morning hours, and should have a significant
impact of temperature trends through the day across the far north.
Some southeastward development of freezing fog is not out of the
question this morning, however the probability for freezing drizzle
in these areas of stratus is not looking quite as probable at this
time. A large temperatures gradient is expected this afternoon in
excess of 30 degrees from the Elkhart area which should be in the
60s...to Hays where highs will not likely exceed the 30s. A
shortwave now moving into the northern Rockies will affect the
northern and central high plains region by the overnight, having
very little impact on western Kansas other than pushing a cold
front/wind shift across the region before Sunday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

Models
have been consistent with a followup/secondary vort lobe rotating
through a bit farther south about 24 hours later which will
improve chances for rain or snow late Sunday night into very early
Monday morning. The remainder of the forecast period will see
rising thicknesses and more northwest flow aloft, resulting in a
warming trend through at least Thursday. Could not rule out
another 80 degree reading by Thursday as a warm dry downslope
pattern once again develops and possibly critical fire weather
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Saturday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

The HRRR model develops/spreads near IFR stratus farther south
across the area over the next few hours and maintains it through
the mid to late moring hours. Freezing fog is not a given at any
of the terminals this morning, as the HRRR indicates the best
signal on the higher terrain in northeast CO, however we will
monitor trend going foreward incase it develops farther east.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  45  30  56  31 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  52  29  57  30 /  10   0   0  10
EHA  65  36  58  32 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  57  32  58  30 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  36  27  51  31 /  10   0  10  20
P28  43  31  58  33 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell


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