Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 291810
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
110 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THIS FORECAST IS LESS COMPLICATED THAN THE PAST 4 DAY SHIFTS.  A
COLD FRONT WENT THROUGH OUR CWA THIS MORNING, TAKING THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT TO THE EAST. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WAS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST, WHILE WEAK NORTHWEST DOWN SLOPE
FLOW EXISTS IN THE UPPER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A NEAR ZONAL
FLOW FROM THE WEST WILL BE OVER WESTERN KANSAS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT WARM UP, BUT NOT TOO
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN TODAY. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REACH
THE FORECAST MAX`S OF THE MID 80S NORTH OF I-70 TO NEAR 90F
DEGREES IN THE SOUTH ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, WITH MINIMUMS
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
WAKEENEY TO JOHNSON CITY, AND RANGE TO THE MIDDLE 60S IN OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES SUCH AS PRATT, BARBER AND COMANCHE COUNTIES.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON TO
15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY.  THESE SOUTH WINDS, SUNNY SKIES, AND SLIGHT
DOWN SLOPE AFFECT FROM THE UPPER LEVELS SHOULD RESULT IN MAX TEMPS
IN THE 90S EVERYWHERE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST INTEREST REGARDING ACTIVE SENSIBLE WEATHER IS
THE LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
LOOK FAIRLY BENIGN IN BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS, BUT SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL RAMP UP OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND ADJACENT FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY AS AN 80-95 KNOT 250MB JET NOSES INTO THE
ROCKIES. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A FORMIDABLE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
DOWNSLOPE PLUME OF HOT AIR WILL ADVANCE NORTHEAST ABOUT AS FAR AS A
LIBERAL TO GARDEN CITY LINE. A DRYLINE WILL SET UP SOMEWHERE CLOSE
TO THIS LINE AS WELL WITH A DRYLINE-FRONT INTERSECTION SOMEWHERE
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS. THE DRYLINE-FRONT INTERSECTION WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR ROBUST SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER
2100 UTC. THERE WILL BE ADEQUATE CAPE/SHEAR COMBINATION TO SUPPORT
SEVERE STORMS AND EVEN SUPERCELLS, PARTICULARLY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE. THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN DRYLINE CONVECTION WITH THE
GFS SHOWING MUCH LESS OF A SIGNAL ALONG THE DRYLINE. CAPPING WILL
CERTAINLY BE A CONCERN, WHICH WILL LIMIT SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS, BUT IT IS STILL FAIRLY UNCLEAR HOW FAR SOUTH THAT WILL BE.
WE WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA (MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 AND NORTH OF THE
ARKANSAS RIVER). THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, AND SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING AROUND THE BASE OF
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT ALONG A ZONE OF 700MB
FRONTOGENESIS. 30 TO 40 POPS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST, WEST-CENTRAL, AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS (SLIGHT CHANCE 20
OR LOWER ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS). AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH INFLUENCE INTO KANSAS GOING
INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE PRIMARY POLAR JET SHIFTING WELL
TO THE NORTH FROM NEVADA-IDAHO INTO THE NORTHERN DAKOTAS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A DRIER FORECAST AND A RETURN TO MID 90S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

AS A COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA TO THE EAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REPLACE IT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WITH NEARLY CLOUD-FREE SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT AND CLOUDS WILL NOT BE OVER ANY OF THE TAF SITES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  92  70  97 /  10  10  10  20
GCK  59  93  67  96 /  10  10  10  20
EHA  61  93  66  98 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  61  93  70  99 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  61  91  70  93 /  10  10  10  40
P28  66  92  71  95 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURKE



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