Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 172332
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
532 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1213 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

Short range models indicate an upper level shortwave digging
southeast out of the Northern Rockies into the Western High Plains
tonight, ushering a strong cold front through western Kansas and
bringing an outside chance for precip to portions of western
Kansas. Based on model soundings, much drier air will remain
prevalent in the lower levels as a westerly downslope flow
persists across the area behind an advancing dryline in central
Kansas. However, a strong +130kt upper jet and a band of H7 post-
frontal frontogenesis may be enough to support a few sprinkles, or
a even a slight chance for light rain across west central and
central Kansas late tonight where a modest amount of upper level
moisture associated with the shortwave will be present. At the
very least, mostly cloudy skies can be expected.

Strong northerlies will develop late tonight in wake of the
frontal passage, allowing colder air to surge into western Kansas
lowering H85 temperatures to near 0C across the region. Considering
increased cloud cover may curb how far temperatures drop tonight,
look for lows down into the 30s(F) across west central Kansas to
the 40s(F) in south central Kansas. Highs may struggle to reach the
50s(F) Saturday afternoon with the mid to upper 40s(F) expected in
west central Kansas as surface high pressure moves southeast
across the Western High Plains into western Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 140 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

A drier period can be expected Sunday through the middle part of the
week as medium range models show weak ridging aloft breaking down as
it moves out of the Intermountain West into the Central Plains, giving
way to yet another more amplified ridge building across the Intermountain
West toward Sunday. Although a prevailing weak flow aloft will gradually
become northwesterly while beginning to intensify by mid week, a lack
of moisture/instability will cap precip chances through at least
Thursday.

Temperatures will bounce back a little Sunday as lee side troughing
develops across eastern Colorado in response to the approaching weak
ridge aloft. This will set up a southwesterly downslope flow across
western Kansas which will begin to erode the colder air mass across
the high plains. Should see highs pushing the lower 60s(F) Sunday
afternoon. Temperatures will continue to climb Monday with highs
well into the 60s(F). The brief warming trend will end Tuesday as
yet another cold front pushes through western Kansas Monday night
bringing back more seasonal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 530 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

As of 23z Friday a surface cold front was located near Hays. This
cold front will continue to move across the remainder of
southwest Kansas through 06z Saturday. As this front passes the
southwest to westerly winds will shift to the north and then a few
hours later increase into the 20 to 25 knot range. Sustained
winds of around 25 knots still appears possible at all TAF sties
between 09z and 15z Saturday. These gusty north winds will then
gradually subsiding back into the 15 to 20 knot range during the
afternoon on Saturday. Model soundings indicating VFR conditions
overnight and Saturday with a period of lower VFR ceilings (3000
to 7000 ft AGL) being possible between 09z and 15z Saturday. May
even have a few sprinkles along the I-70 corridor towards
daybreak Saturday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  40  53  27  60 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  37  50  26  59 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  37  50  29  59 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  38  52  26  60 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  39  50  26  59 /  40  10   0   0
P28  43  55  27  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Burgert



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