Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 042038
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
238 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING IN A BAND FROM LIBERAL THROUGH GREENSBURG
AND PRATT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS BANDING HAS
OCCURRED IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS AT THE 800-700
MILLIBAR LAYER UNDERNEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 150 KNOT
UPPER LEVEL JET. ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS
HAS BEEN PROPAGATING SOUTH IN AN AREA OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MAIN 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO WESTERN COLORADO. LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN BUILDING
DOWN THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND ADVECTING SOME VERY DRY
AIR INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THE DRY AIR HAS KEPT SNOW FROM REACHING
THE GROUND FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT BUT SNOW HAS SINCE BEGUN TO
ACCUMULATE AS THE LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN UP.

SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN ZEROING IN ON THE IDEA OF THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO OCCUR FROM AROUND LIBERAL THROUGH
GREENSBURG AND PRATT. THE BACK EDGE OF THE BAND APPEARS TO BE
DIMINISHING AROUND LIBERAL, WHERE 3-4 INCHES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN.
EXPECT THAT WE COULD SEE AT LEAST THAT MUCH, WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE, FARTHER NORTHEAST TOWARD PRATT. AREAS FARTHER TO
THE NORTH COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY AT
TIMES WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. WILL
KEEP THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTACT.

THE SNOW WILL BE ENDING BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES SOUTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT AND DECREASING WINDS, WE SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE WEST COAST. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH ONE SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEKEND
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES BRITISH COLUMBIA. A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BRIEFLY MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. LITTLE IF ANY COOLING IS FORECAST BEHIND THIS FRONT AND
BASED ON THE 24HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE IN THE 900MB TO 850MB LEVEL
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS VERY SIMILAR
TO THOSE HIGHS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 55 TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

ON SUNDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE A 24HOUR 850MB
TEMPERATURE CHANGE OF +2C TO +4C FROM 00Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY SO
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S STILL APPEARS
REASONABLE FOR WESTERN KANSAS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY WHICH WILL BRING
ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY
MONDAY. DESPITE THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS THE 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH
INDICATED TEMPERATURES WARMING BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM 00Z MONDAY
TO 00Z TUESDAY. GIVEN THIS THE LATEST CREXTENDEDFCST_INIT STILL
APPEARS ON TRACK WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS THIS FRONT STILL APPEARS SMALL
BASED ON WHERE THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE LOCATED
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS/CIGS FOR KGCK/KDDC WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY THE
AFTERNOON. KHYS WILL CONTINUE AT VFR THROUGH TAF PD. N/NE WINDS
10-15 KT BECOMING SW 5-10 KT BY 12Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  10  42  20  58 /   0   0   0   0
GCK   9  42  19  57 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  10  43  21  57 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  10  43  21  56 /   0   0   0   0
HYS   7  42  21  60 /   0   0   0   0
P28  12  41  20  55 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...SUGDEN


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