Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 020726
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
226 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AT 10
TO 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON, THEN LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR ELKHART TO
HUGOTON WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH SOME POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP EARLY THIS
MORNING IF CIRRUS CLOUDINESS IS NOT AS HEAVY. MODELS SHOW INCREASING
CIRRUS CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY WEST OF DODGE CITY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AND IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FOR MONDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THEN EXIT INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY
TUESDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY AROUND 50 POPS MAINLY AFTER
7 PM MONDAY WITH A POSSIBLE MCS FORMING. NEW NAM HAS LITTLE TO
NOTHING AND IS ODD MODEL OUT. SEVERE CHANCES DO NOT LOOK THAT GREAT,
BUT MAYBE SOME MARGINAL SEVERE WITH SMALL HAIL, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND
WIND GUSTS TO LESS THAN 50 MPH. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE AROUND 90.

FOR TUESDAY, SOME LINGERING STORMS WILL BE EXCITING THE AREA MAINLY
EAST OF DODGE CITY IN THE MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE AROUND 90.

FOR THE PERIOD OF WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY, UPPER LEVEL WARM RIDGING
RETURNS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER NORTHERN PLAINS
SHORTWAVE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THEN COOL INTO THE UPPER 80S FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOK LOW AT THIS
TIME THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON INTO TONIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING SOME INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDINESS THAT MAY
KEEP LOW STRATUS OR GROUND FOG FROM DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE BEST AREA FOR SOME GROUND FOG MAY BE IN THE KGCK AREA FROM
09-14Z IF SKIES CAN CLEAR. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT SOUTH TODAY, THEN LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  92  68  91  67 /  10  10  10  50
GCK  92  67  89  66 /  10  10  20  50
EHA  91  68  88  64 /  10  20  30  40
LBL  93  69  89  67 /  20  20  20  50
HYS  95  69  93  68 /  10  10  10  50
P28  93  71  93  70 /  10  10  10  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...KRUSE



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