Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 211800
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
100 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM NEAR MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD TO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA TRAVELS EAST TODAY, IT SHOULD BE FROM WISCONSIN TO ARKANSAS
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  NEARER THE EARTH, A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORMING
IN CENTRAL COLORADO AND WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO AND KANSAS BORDER
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  IN THE MEAN TIME, THERE IS A SWATH OF MID TO
UPPER 50`S DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NORTHWEST IN THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST
FLOW.  WITH NO CLOUDS AND LIGHT, MOIST WINDS, THERE SHOULD BE SOME
DENSE FOG FORMING ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. AS A MATTER OF FACT, BASED ON BOTH THE RAP12 AND HRRR
MODEL VISIBILITY FIELDS, THERE SHOULD BE 1/4-MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY
BY 11Z, AND LAST UNTIL 16Z OR SO.  I WILL BE ISSUING AN NPW DENSE
FOG ADVISORY SHORTLY.  THE DENSE FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS WILL DELAY THE
HEATING SOME IN OUR WEST. THIS WILL CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO BE A DEGREE
OR TWO COOLER IN OUR WEST THAN IN OUR EAST TODAY.

BELIEVE IT OR NOT, THE NAM MODEL, WHICH SHOWS NO LOWER VISIBILITIES
THIS MORNING, DOES FORECAST SOME LOW VISIBILITY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW, JUST PLAN TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG WORDING, AND WAIT TO SEE
HOW THE SHORT TERM MODELS HANDLE THE FOG TOMORROW MORNING.  I
KEPT THE GOING FORECAST FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, GENERALLY
IN THE MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE FORECAST STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN LOW CLOUDS OR FOG
COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE, CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BECOME MORE LIKELY IN THE EVENING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE LIFT LOOKS TO BE THE
BEST. FAR WESTERN KANSAS HAS THE LEAST CHANCE OF RECEIVING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DUE TO A LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT,
WHICH IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION. RAIN CHANCES END FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IN TURN HELPS PUSH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. CLOUDS ALSO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE FELT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS SUGGEST THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, WITH
THIS SYSTEM BEING OUT 7+ DAYS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IT`S TIMING AND
TRACK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO REACH
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWER 80S EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IS FORECASTED ON SUNDAY WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK IF
THE MODELS ARE CORRECT AND THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
LOWS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK TO DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE UPPER 40S WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A LEE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD, RESULTING IN SOUTH WINDS AT 10-13 KTS. WITH THE LOSS OF
THE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW, LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
RETURN. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD AOA100 IS EXPECTED BY 12-18Z
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES; BUT ANY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  79  56  75  53 /   0  10  40  50
GCK  79  56  76  49 /   0  10  30  20
EHA  77  54  73  49 /   0  10  20  10
LBL  79  55  75  52 /   0  10  30  20
HYS  76  57  75  51 /   0  10  60  70
P28  81  57  77  56 /   0  10  40  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...FINCH



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