Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 010712
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
112 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AS WE REMAIN IN THIS BROAD, CYCLONICALLY-CURVED FLOW PATTERN, WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE TREND OF MINOR SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS
ROTATING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...PROVIDING US WITH CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS WE SEE SUBTLE DEFORMATION/CONVERGENCE IN THE
LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE NEXT IN THE
SERIES WILL BE TONIGHT AFTER THE BREAK WE HAD THIS AFTERNOON. POPS
WILL BE INCREASED BACK UP IN TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY WITH A
CONTINUATION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. THE VERY LATEST 18Z
RUNS OF THE NAM12 AND THE HRRR/RAP HAVE THROWN A LITTLE WRINKLE IN
THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. THE NAM12 SUGGESTS THE NEXT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL START ABOUT 6 HOURS SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT (WHICH IS SIGNIFICANT AT THIS CLOSE OF A TIME RANGE) WHEREAS
THE RAP AND HRRR REALLY SHOW NOTHING MUCH AT ALL. IT REALLY IS A
FINE LINE BETWEEN NO PRECIP AT ALL AND LIGHT ACCUMULATING PRECIP IN
THIS FLOW REGIME, AS MUCH DOWNSLOPE AS THERE IS (YET MOIST). THE
SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW A WARMING OF THE 850-750MB LAYER TO THE POINT
THAT A SLIGHT WARM NOSE ABOVE 0C WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL FAVOR SLEET
AS A PRECIPITATION TYPE LATE TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF THE
ARKANSAS RIVER. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT, AGAIN, ANY PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT WOULD BE QUITE LIGHT AND MAY NOT EVEN HAPPEN AT ALL. THE
INCOMING SWING SHIFT WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS TO SEE OF THE WINTER
WX ADVISORY IS STILL NEED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND IN TO THE
MORNING SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STEADY
AROUND 20 DEGREES WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT. LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE TO ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT LEADING TO
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO FALL IN SOME LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND 20 DEGREES WITH HIGHS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT REACHING TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN INDICATE THAT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT THEN INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP PUSH ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY. AS OF NOW FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS, BUT WITH THIS
SYSTEM BEING 3 DAYS OUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME CHANGES AS IT
APPROACHES. NEVERTHELESS, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WITH CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
TUESDAY DUE TO THE EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
KS/OK BORDER. LOWS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE MID 20S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 40S THURSDAY
THEN LOWER 50S FRIDAY. LOWS LOOK TO DIP INTO THE LOWER TEENS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

IFR/LIFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS,
AFFECTING MAINLY THE DDC AND GCK TAF SITES THIS MORNING. THE HI
RESOLUTIONS AND RAPID REFRESH MODELS INIDCATE A NARROW BAND OF WHAT
WILL LIKELY BE EITHER SNOW OR SLEET, BETWEEN NOW AND MID MORNING.
BASED ON RECENT MODEL RUNS, THIS LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE MORE  OF AN
ISSUE FOR DDC THAN GCK, AND LITTLE IMPACT OTHER THAN MVFR STRATUS
AT HYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  31  20  38  35 /  60  20  20  20
GCK  31  19  40  34 /  30  20  20  10
EHA  33  21  45  38 /  20  30  20  10
LBL  34  22  43  37 /  30  20  10  10
HYS  35  21  39  33 /  30  20  20  20
P28  32  22  39  35 /  60  10  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ046-064>066-
076>081-086>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...RUSSELL


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