Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 172050
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
350 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

...Updated Long Term Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Main concern is severe convection and strong cold front winds
tonight. An impressive strong jet streak was moving across the
Northern Rockies impinging on the Northern Plains today. 400mb jet
core was around 100 knots moving across Wyoming late this morning.
This intense jet and storm system will result in a rather strong
cold front for mid-June across western Kansas later this
afternoon/evening. Convective outflow from the overnight MCS across
eastern KS altered the surface flow field somewhat, however synoptic
influences with the approaching jet streak should readjust the flow
field with a bit of a cyclonic center developing just ahead of the
surface cold front across west-central KS early this evening. This
is where the best chance for a vigorous thunderstorm will develop,
and there is growing agreement among various convective-allowing
models of this occurring across southwest KS. The latest runs of the
HRRR even suggest a supercell structure is not out of the question.
There will certainly be strong enough mid and upper level winds to
support a supercell right along or immediately ahead of the cold
front. The cold front itself should have a very healthy density
current head with it, as it charges south early this evening. This
alone will lead to 25 to 40 mph winds in the region of strongest
pressure rises. Add vigorous deep moist convection to the equation
and and the wind potential goes up dramatically -- perhaps peak
gusts in the 70-80mph range in an isolated location tied to the
strongest severe storm. Of course, as with any supercell storm, very
large hail will also be expected.  Severe weather threat will exit
the southwest KS region in the 04-06z time frame with a much cooler
airmass in place. Not much to worry about in the forecast for
tomorrow. A very pleasant day forecast with fresh airmass in place --
 dewpoints in the 40s and temperatures topping out around 80 most
areas. We just have to get through tonight!

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

After this weekend, we will gradually return to a summer pattern
as a 594 dam 500mb high expands across the Desert Southwest
region. The expansion of the high will lead to a more anticylonically
curved mid level flow pattern out of the northwest across western
Kansas. The main polar jet will shift north to the international
border with negligible forcing for ascent for organized convective
weather. This is why POPs are generally low next week, although
widely scattered storms can be expected with surface lee trough
setups that occur. The next bonafide polar front will most likely
not be until late next week when the Desert Southwest high
flattens out as the jet stream shift slightly south. There is a
lot of uncertainty, of course, regarding any front timing and
strength that far out. Wednesday and Thursday look to be the
hottest days coming up with 100-degree highs in the forecast
again.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Aviation concerns center around cold front timing and possible high
impacts from severe storms particularly at DDC terminal. A very
strong cold front by mid-June standards will push through all
terminals this evening. There will be a 2 to 4 hour window of very
strong north to northeast winds behind the front, and strong to
severe thunderstorms will make winds even stronger, gusting over 50
knots perhaps at DDC. VFR conditions will prevail except briefly in
thunderstorms, and behind the front the airmass will be much drier
(and cooler) with no ceiling forecast behind the front.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  82  61  87 /  30   0   0   0
GCK  61  82  59  89 /  30   0   0   0
EHA  60  83  60  90 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  64  83  62  90 /  20   0  10   0
HYS  60  80  59  87 /  40   0   0  10
P28  65  84  61  88 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid



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