Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 270724
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
224 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING CONTINUES TO TRANSITION SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, A STRONG
JET CORE IS PROJECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS
EDGING INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS WITH WIND SPEEDS IN EXCESS
OF 100KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE. AS A RESULT, A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AND POTENTIALLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO SHOW MID/HIGH
LEVEL VERTICAL PROFILES BEGINNING TO SATURATE. OTHERWISE, FAIRLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NOT QUITE AS COOL TONIGHT FROM THIS
MORNING`S LOW TEMPERATURES, EVEN AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES
EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE
NORTHERLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIR
MASS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER, MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. THIS MAY HELP KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE FROM THE NIGHT PREVIOUS WITH LOWS ONLY DOWN
INTO THE 30S(F) FOR THE MOST PART WITH NEAR 40F POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
SOUTH ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. FOR FRIDAY, LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLIES
WILL QUICKLY RETURN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 10C
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 15C OUT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
EXPECT HIGHS UP NEAR 60F ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO WELL UP INTO THE
70S(F) IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE SOME DOWNSLOPING IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR DUE TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPING. HIGHS MAY
ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS DEPENDING ON HOW
LONG MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER PERSISTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER REGIME WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OF
NOTE BEING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY FAST-MOVING,
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE LARGER SCALE ZONAL PATTERN...FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
THE MIDWEST REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WITH DOWNSLOPE
MODIFICATION, SO TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COOL, AND IN FACT STILL ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE (AVG. HIGH OF LOWER-MID 60S FOR DODGE CITY) FOR LATE MARCH.
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY GULF MOISTURE INVOLVED TO GENERATE ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LATE WEEKEND STORM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

ANOTHER ZONAL PACIFIC JET WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. BETTER QUALITY GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE INVOLVED WITH THIS STORM, WHICH IS WHY WE WILL CARRY
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH KANSAS. YET ANOTHER EVEN STRONGER STORM SYSTEM QUICK
ON ITS HEELS COULD YIELD BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THE END OF
THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (APRIL 2-
3).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED FROM THE NORTHERN SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE SOURCE FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS. ANY
REAL THREAT FOR STRATUS IN THE IFR/MVFR RANGE WILL BE OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS AND AFFECTING THE HYS TERMINAL THROUGH MID MORNING (BEFORE
INSOLATION WARMS THE BOUNDARY LAYER).


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  41  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  72  40  79  46 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  73  42  82  47 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  73  41  81  47 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  60  38  75  46 /  10   0   0  10
P28  60  41  77  47 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...RUSSELL



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